Off Topic Politics Thread

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Yes, It’s quite fortunate (for us) that Ukraine is not a member of NATO as world war 3 would have instantly begun as soon as Russia attacked.

This is unprecedented and where we go now is anyone’s guess.

I am just praying for the safety of all Ukrainians.
 
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Osvaldorama said:
Yes, It’s quite fortunate (for us) that Ukraine is not a member of NATO as world war 3 would have instantly begun as soon as Russia attacked.

This is unprecedented and where we go now is anyone’s guess.

I am just praying for the safety of all Ukrainians.
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If Ukraine were a member of NATO I doubt Russia would have attacked at all. Russia would have needed China's backing and I don't think they'd have got it for the sake of Ukraine. Putin's a lot of things but stupid he is not.
 
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GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK SAYS 50% OF OUR COAL COMES FROM RUSSIA
55% OF OUR GAS FROM RUSSIA
35% OF OUR OIL COMES FROM RUSSIA

Those nuclear power plants not looking like such a bad idea right now.
 
Osvaldorama said:
This is so incredibly worrying.

Been thinking about all of the outcomes and basically all of them are really bad.

I honestly think the best outcome for us in the UK now would be Russia take Ukraine as quickly as possible with minimum casualties and pray Putin stops there.
Meanwhile US/EU/Nato must deploy as many resources as we can to the local allies and hope there is no provocation.

Almost all other outcomes lead to war between nuclear powers.

All the while it looks like China will probably escalate tensions with Taiwan whilst the west is pre-occupied.
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The horrible thing is that really Ukraine being attritional would probably save further attacks in the long run as it would damage Russia and they would need to recover.

I hope for Ukrainians that doesn’t turn out to be the case but again it’s bad outcome or bad outcome.
 
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tomw24 said:
If Ukraine were a member of NATO I doubt Russia would have attacked at all. Russia would have needed China's backing and I don't think they'd have got it for the sake of Ukraine. Putin's a lot of things but stupid he is not.
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This

Also I am slightly curious about how quick people are to jump to “World War 3”. Is there not a difference between a potential WW3 and “War with Russia” ?
 
tomw24 said:
If Ukraine were a member of NATO I doubt Russia would have attacked at all. Russia would have needed China's backing and I don't think they'd have got it for the sake of Ukraine. Putin's a lot of things but stupid he is not.
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The 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Ukraine agreed not to become a member of NATO, was also when Ukraine gave up all her nuclear capability. There are so many ifs and buts in play right now that speculation on the desirability of that undertaking, which Putin has obviously ridden roughshod over, is pointless,
 
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To be honest, the best solution is that the take-over of Ukraine is swift and bloodless. We donot want a protracted war in Europe. I am not sure that Ukraine will have the ability to withstand this invasion and the speed of the Russian success is probably more worrying from a point of view that Putin will be emboldened if this goes well for his army. My gut feeling is that the take-over will be pretty short and sharp and that the Russians will have a more sympathetic leader in place as was the case with the previous president of Ukraine.

From a European pesepctive, I would guess that the Baltic states will now be concerned that they will be next. I am not sure that EU trade sanctions will have any impact whatsoever and may actually provoke further action by Putin as he seeks to recouperate the resources he will have lost as a consequence. I think that there will probably be a wave of cyber attacks by the Russians against European instiruation in response to the sanctions. There was a good aticle in the Sunday Telegraph the other weekend about the broader Russian influence in the Mediterranean which was described as almost as the forgotten frontline against Russia as few people are aware ot the extent they are involved in the politics of places like Cyprus. The Russians are chipping away, piece by piece, at southern Europe and it does make you feel that this is all rather inevitable. Any efforts to curtail the malign infliuence of Putin should have been done ages ago. The Russians feel that they can do whatever they want in Europe and I feel it is fast getting to the point that this is a reality.

I am not convinced that Putin will resort to nuclear weapons but this week has been salutory insofar that it is clear there is no appetite for military intervention by the West and that Putin probably has more freedom to do what he wishes that he ever believed was possible. This week has shown how ineffectual NATO actually is regardless of whether of not you agree with it's more assertive actions abroad from the 1990s onwards. I think Putin should have been isolated much sooner or greater efforts made to bring Russia in to the EU. I blame Putin for his aggression but the ever-assertive Russia is as much a creation of the west's inability to engage. Accepting the dodgy money from Russia has demonstrated how reliant the West actually is.
 
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Ian Thumwood said:
To be honest, the best solution is that the take-over of Ukraine is swift and bloodless. We donot want a protracted war in Europe. I am not sure that Ukraine will have the ability to withstand this invasion and the speed of the Russian success is probably more worrying from a point of view that Putin will be emboldened if this goes well for his army. My gut feeling is that the take-over will be pretty short and sharp and that the Russians will have a more sympathetic leader in place as was the case with the previous president of Ukraine.

From a European pesepctive, I would guess that the Baltic states will now be concerned that they will be next. I am not sure that EU trade sanctions will have any impact whatsoever and may actually provoke further action by Putin as he seeks to recouperate the resources he will have lost as a consequence. I think that there will probably be a wave of cyber attacks by the Russians against European instiruation in response to the sanctions. There was a good aticle in the Sunday Telegraph the other weekend about the broader Russian influence in the Mediterranean which was described as almost as the forgotten frontline against Russia as few people are aware ot the extent they are involved in the politics of places like Cyprus. The Russians are chipping away, piece by piece, at southern Europe and it does make you feel that this is all rather inevitable. Any efforts to curtail the malign infliuence of Putin should have been done ages ago. The Russians feel that they can do whatever they want in Europe and I feel it is fast getting to the point that this is a reality.

I am not convinced that Putin will resort to nuclear weapons but this week has been salutory insofar that it is clear there is no appetite for military intervention by the West and that Putin probably has more freedom to do what he wishes that he ever believed was possible. This week has shown how ineffectual NATO actually is regardless of whether of not you agree with it's more assertive actions abroad from the 1990s onwards. I think Putin should have been isolated much sooner or greater efforts made to bring Russia in to the EU. I blame Putin for his aggression but the ever-assertive Russia is as much a creation of the west's inability to engage. Accepting the dodgy money from Russia has demonstrated how reliant the West actually is.
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Baltic States are all part of NATO so they are fine. Putin will not touch NATO States as that would be suicidal.
 
Ian Thumwood said:
To be honest, the best solution is that the take-over of Ukraine is swift and bloodless. We donot want a protracted war in Europe. I am not sure that Ukraine will have the ability to withstand this invasion and the speed of the Russian success is probably more worrying from a point of view that Putin will be emboldened if this goes well for his army. My gut feeling is that the take-over will be pretty short and sharp and that the Russians will have a more sympathetic leader in place as was the case with the previous president of Ukraine.

From a European pesepctive, I would guess that the Baltic states will now be concerned that they will be next. I am not sure that EU trade sanctions will have any impact whatsoever and may actually provoke further action by Putin as he seeks to recouperate the resources he will have lost as a consequence. I think that there will probably be a wave of cyber attacks by the Russians against European instiruation in response to the sanctions. There was a good aticle in the Sunday Telegraph the other weekend about the broader Russian influence in the Mediterranean which was described as almost as the forgotten frontline against Russia as few people are aware ot the extent they are involved in the politics of places like Cyprus. The Russians are chipping away, piece by piece, at southern Europe and it does make you feel that this is all rather inevitable. Any efforts to curtail the malign infliuence of Putin should have been done ages ago. The Russians feel that they can do whatever they want in Europe and I feel it is fast getting to the point that this is a reality.

I am not convinced that Putin will resort to nuclear weapons but this week has been salutory insofar that it is clear there is no appetite for military intervention by the West and that Putin probably has more freedom to do what he wishes that he ever believed was possible. This week has shown how ineffectual NATO actually is regardless of whether of not you agree with it's more assertive actions abroad from the 1990s onwards. I think Putin should have been isolated much sooner or greater efforts made to bring Russia in to the EU. I blame Putin for his aggression but the ever-assertive Russia is as much a creation of the west's inability to engage. Accepting the dodgy money from Russia has demonstrated how reliant the West actually is.
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Everything you say is reminiscent of those who allowed Hitler to build the military machine that later conquered most of Europe, by appeasing him in every demand he made. Putin is made of exactly the same cloth as Adolf, and has been allowed to reach his present position by the blind acceptance and connivance of the West.

He cannot be allowed to get away with any more.
 
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Osvaldorama said:
War with Russia would be World war 3. If nuclear nations declare war it will affect the whole world.
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Like I said before, Putin is a ****, but not a stupid or reckless one. He just wants Ukraine. Well, he would probably like the other ex-Soviet nations as well but that won't happen. He wants power, not a World War in which Russia would almost certainly end up on the losing side.
 
tomw24 said:
Baltic States are all part of NATO so they are fine. Putin will not touch NATO States as that would be suicidal.
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If Russian tanks went in to the Baltic states I would be very surprised if NATO would do anything about it. They may be members but I think it would test the resolve of NATO who will not have the appetite to confront Putin. It will happen eventually. As soon as NATO starts to escalate it's milotary presence in these countries, Putin will feel impelled to go in before these nations are re-armed or reinforced. I think the tipping point for NATO would be Poland and not the Baltic states and I am sure that the latter would not be a step too far for Putin. The Baltic states could be captured far too quickly to allow NATO to respond.
 
Ian Thumwood said:
If Russian tanks went in to the Baltic states I would be very surprised if NATO would do anything about it. They may be members but I think it would test the resolve of NATO who will not have the appetite to confront Putin. It will happen eventually. As soon as NATO starts to escalate it's milotary presence in these countries, Putin will feel impelled to go in before these nations are re-armed or reinforced. I think the tipping point for NATO would be Poland and not the Baltic states and I am sure that the latter would not be a step too far for Putin. The Baltic states could be captured far too quickly to allow NATO to respond.
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NATO would be obliged to respond. If any NATO state comes under attack, the others must come to their aid.
 
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ChilcoSaint said:
Everything you say is reminiscent of those who allowed Hitler to build the military machine that later conquered most of Europe, by appeasing him in every demand he made. Putin is made of exactly the same cloth as Adolf, and has been allowed to reach his present position by the blind acceptance and connivance of the West.

He cannot be allowed to get away with any more.
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Chilcs

I totally agree with everything you say in this post apart from the last sentance. Putin will get away with this and I just think that it will embolden China too. It is a major sea-change and we have left it much too late to do anything about it. Effectively , Putin can do whatever he wants and there is nothing the rest of the world can do about this.
 
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tomw24 said:
NATO would be obliged to respond. If any NATO state comes under attack, the others must come to their aid.
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In theory only. in reality, it will never happen. Putin could go int here tomorrow and NATO woild be able to do very little about it. The rearmament of the Baltic states would give him the perfect excuse too. If Putin is confident enough to take Ukraine, he would give little time to reflecting upon invading these countries. The invasion would be complete beofe NATO could lift a finger..

I just think is is a case of accepting that there is nothing the West can do. Military action is undesirable and we would lose. Economic sanctions would quickly be countered by our computer systems being hacked.
 
Ian Thumwood said:
To be honest, the best solution is that the take-over of Ukraine is swift and bloodless. We donot want a protracted war in Europe. I am not sure that Ukraine will have the ability to withstand this invasion and the speed of the Russian success is probably more worrying from a point of view that Putin will be emboldened if this goes well for his army. My gut feeling is that the take-over will be pretty short and sharp and that the Russians will have a more sympathetic leader in place as was the case with the previous president of Ukraine.

From a European pesepctive, I would guess that the Baltic states will now be concerned that they will be next. I am not sure that EU trade sanctions will have any impact whatsoever and may actually provoke further action by Putin as he seeks to recouperate the resources he will have lost as a consequence. I think that there will probably be a wave of cyber attacks by the Russians against European instiruation in response to the sanctions. There was a good aticle in the Sunday Telegraph the other weekend about the broader Russian influence in the Mediterranean which was described as almost as the forgotten frontline against Russia as few people are aware ot the extent they are involved in the politics of places like Cyprus. The Russians are chipping away, piece by piece, at southern Europe and it does make you feel that this is all rather inevitable. Any efforts to curtail the malign infliuence of Putin should have been done ages ago. The Russians feel that they can do whatever they want in Europe and I feel it is fast getting to the point that this is a reality.

I am not convinced that Putin will resort to nuclear weapons but this week has been salutory insofar that it is clear there is no appetite for military intervention by the West and that Putin probably has more freedom to do what he wishes that he ever believed was possible. This week has shown how ineffectual NATO actually is regardless of whether of not you agree with it's more assertive actions abroad from the 1990s onwards. I think Putin should have been isolated much sooner or greater efforts made to bring Russia in to the EU. I blame Putin for his aggression but the ever-assertive Russia is as much a creation of the west's inability to engage. Accepting the dodgy money from Russia has demonstrated how reliant the West actually is.
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How has it shown NATO to be ineffective? A member state hasn’t been attacked
 
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