Shame that Kieran Trippier: Newcastle defender fractures foot - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/60375100
Good stat in today's Athletic piece: Norwich have not scored in the Premier League or FA cup this season when Rashica has been off the pitch.
Brandon Williams has been impressive after an uncertain start and I wonder whether this is why: "Apparently, Rangnick has told the United loanee that he will ‘definitely return’ to Old Trafford at the end of his spell with Norwich. Apparently, when the two sides met back in December, Rangnick made a beeline for Williams, letting the Englishman know that he was aware of him, while admitting he wanted him back at the club when his loan ends. Williams himself was left impressed because he’d only been in charge of a couple of games, with Rangnick a big fan of Williams’ speed and versatility (he can play in both full-back positions)." Bad news that he won't be back but good that he has that incentive to play for, which is what makes for a good loan. https://oldtraffordfaithful.com/ran...he-will-return-to-man-utd-next-season-report/
Good news is if the loan is seen by Man U as successful then we are more likely to get more loans in the future.
Follow-up stat, in the last 5 league games Rashica has created 10 chances. From "bottom 14 teams", only Raphinha, Podence and Ward-Prowse have created more. A certain E Buendia has created 9 chances in that period.
Rashica and Sargent have improved tremendously over the season and both could be key players in remaining games. They help take the pressure off Pukki and also track back well. Our midfielders are also developing good relationships and were strong on both sides of the ball yesterday. We look to be a different team when Normann is covering in front of the defence and that could be another big difference as well as the much improved defence, including against set pieces. Smith does seem to have a settled formation which the players are responding to but whether that will be enough remains to be seen.
Probably shows the scale of the problem best, believe this factors in number of fixtures remaining and fixture difficulty. Regardless of whether you think 39 points are required or less, we're still a long way off other teams. Five-Thirty-Eight give us an 89% chance of relegation. Compared to 93% at this stage 2 seasons ago. I guess the reason for optimism is that it feels like there's more to come from this group of players, most haven't peaked yet this season. We're also at least competitive with those around us, we haven't been cut adrift yet.
I don’t think it’s as complicated as that? I think it’s just taking points won per game so far and then spreading that over 38 games, deducting the outcome from 38. The problem is there are too many teams with a negative number and as only three teams can get relegated the baseline should be survival, which means we are actually seven points behind. That sounds about right. We need a small miracle and, first of all in that direction, to score some goals.
There also seems to be an assumption that performances will continue at the same level for the rest of the reason. We have players coming back from injury as well as new players adjusting to the PL at last. It's now a question of how far that can go to lift us to a performance level above that we've reached previously and above that of the teams we're chasing. We've just completed the two hardest matches we'll have in this half of the season following on from a 3 game unbeaten run that produced 7 points from 3 games. If we can get back to that level in the next 3 games against Southampton, Brentford and Leeds we could improve our chances. We really need to win the last two and the later games against Burnley and Newcastle. Those 12 points alone would take us to 29 points and deny points to those teams. That's a big ask though which is why we are facing a very slender chance of survival. It seems about right that we need to be around 7 points better than the teams around us over the rest of the season. We have improved, but have we improved enough to make that happen? Time will tell.
Looking at past campaigns on Rob's chart there is a tendency for results to plateau in the final phase - that's what we need to avoid if we are to survive this time.
Max Aarons on the impact of Smith and the rest of the season: "To have a new manager come in with the class Dean has got was amazing and an inspiration. We have improved a bit and played in a slightly different way. Maybe we are a bit more cautious, a bit more secure. We have had a couple of wins and some draws and, from here, we need to beat the teams around us and try to get some good results against bigger teams.”
Imagine we sold Aarons and signed Normann and lined up in the Championship with: Krul Byram Hanley Omobamidele Giannoulis Sargent Normann Lees-Melou Rashica Idah Pukki Subs: Gunn Gibson Mumba Sørensen McLean Tzolis Rowe Reserves: McGovern Zimmerman Dowell Placheta Hernandez Rupp Give or take a couple more signings/sales, this side would do pretty well under Smith, imo. Iv not given up hope for this seaon, but looking at our squad, its decent for that level!
Since Smith took over, we've taken 12 points from 14 games. That could mean survival if maintained over a full season. We have a decent PL squad now, but can it improve our results to enable survival.
I can see us equalling Brentford, Leeds and Everton over the rest of the season. The problem is that we need to get 6-8 points more than these teams, and I find it hard to believe we'll do that. Our awful start has probably doomed us. (Although obviously I hope I'm wrong, and we can somehow survive.)
