I don’t think so. Not this season. Compare the teams in each division sitting in sixth place. L1 is an outlier. I heard it in a podcast but here are the sums I’ve done which support this proposition: Plymouth are currently 6th on 53 points having played 30 games. That’s an average of 1.8 points per game. 1.8 multiplied by 46 games is….82.8. Call it 83. hence we need 84.
The final table is not decided by extrapolating the points from the first 30 games. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Last season Oxford had 50 points after 30 games. It’s a few points than usual, but no way will sixth place be 83 points. Also, if we have to finish above the points total for sixth place, then we’ll finish at least fifth!
Think 84 points is very high, teams at the bottom tend to start picking up points towards the end of the Season so reckon it'll be about 74 points needed. I'm going to keep my premonition for the season and say we'll go into the last game with something to play for aka a playoff place. We definitely have the talent in terms of striker apart from Bonne no one has really been given and extended run in the team and apart from the past couple of games I don't feel like Bonne has missed too many chances... we haven't really been creating a great deal. Start creating more chances with Bonne and Norwood on the pitch and you'll get a decent return I'm sure. Not seen enough of Pigott to judge but must be half decent to have scored 20 goals last season. McKenna needs to find the right formula going forwards and I personally don't feel the constant rotation is working to get the best out of the strikers. I feel our biggest problem is the middle third bar Morsey we've got too many players who are happy to sit and dictate play and not drive into space and in terms of the attacking midfielders/deep lying forwards we've got too many players who want to drive into the space and not dictate play all this means there is usually a big gap between the midfield 2 and the attacking midfielders and when we get into the final third we don't keep the ball well enough because we have players whose first thought is to drive at the defence. Plus I think playing 2 number 10s with wing backs takes space away from the wing backs to run into, that's particularly noticeable on the right hand side with Burns having a couple of much quieter games
In a word, we are not creating enough chances for whoever is up front, and not scoring enough goals. If KM finds his best formula, sticks to it, then we have a good chance of making top 6. 74 pts, 84 pts whatever, we have to win a helluva lot of games! I am ever the optimist.
We have not been scoring goals and still we are very much in it, which means if we start finding the net we will absolutely batter the opposition. We have got some more comfortable matches now to find a rhythm. Plus we have a lot of play off contenders still to play. If we lose a few I don’t think McKenna will allow us to give up and fall away. I think 53 points is slightly on the high side and we may need 76. It is achievable, but I expect it to be tight!
the end of March could be the month to make or break the play offs., we play all the teams around us. Pompey ,Plymouth & Oxford.we do need to make the most of the next few games.
Will they still be around us then is the question? By that point we should be very close to if not in a play off berth. Given we need to average 2 out of 3 for the season then taking four points or more from those sides should be enough.
The trajectory we're on will, I think, just about carry us into the playoffs which I would regard as a bonus this Season. Our best hope for promotion would be from a concerted effort for an automatic place next Season after KMc has had a close-Season and another transfer window to sort out the squad. I regard the “rotation” of strikers to merely be experimenting with the various options and permutations to see who he wants to keep. He seems to have very quickly sorted out the leaky defence and I’ve faith he’ll address our other shortcomings.In very short order he seems to have been able to make us difficult to beat without the past failings of making us unwatchable.
Bit of a catch 22 with our forwards. They're not scoring, so he rotates them, but then they don't get a good run of games to get confident. I'd be tempted to try young Simpson for a 30 minute run out here and there. We're a good footballing side, but unfortunately in L1 you need more than that, you need power, pace and strength. In a perverse way, I think our current squad could do better in the championship rather than L1.
I know, will be a tough order, was just trying to say that our squad would be better suited to the championship, where there is more emphasis on playing football as opposed to the hustle and bustle of L1
This podcast/interview with Ashton and McKenna is fascinating.Regardless of the outcome of this Season it’s great to hear all the plans that are being worked on to resurrect our Club and obvious how much we’ve been sold short for so many years.I think we were really lucky to get the new owners and subsequently to attract the likes of KMc. https://www.eadt.co.uk/sport/ipswich-town/mckenna-and-ashton-on-kings-of-anglia-8691340
Yes, I enjoyed it too. Refreshing to hear the Chief Exec and young manager chatting about Club plans. Our future looks bright.
