Excellent analysis DH and it sets out both the problems and the opportunities facing S&S. After the Watford win DS made it clear that we wouldn't be playing 3 strikers against top 6 teams. That means a 4-3-3 is more likely tomorrow and with Sargent likely to be fit again it could be a front 3 of Rashica, Pukki and Sargent. Both Sargent and Rashica play as half striker half midfielder, which makes it difficult for opposing defences to predict our attacks. If Josh doesn't make it, I suspect that it might be Placheta again as his tracking back is better than Idah's. The midfield 3 is harder to predict as there's a difficult choice between Gilmour and Normann or perhaps PLM is rested and Gilmour takes his place. McLean is difficult to replace as he's our only left footed midfielder unless Giannoulis is moved forward as he often is for Greece. Rashica Pukki Sargent McLean Normann PLM/Gilmour Williams Gibson Hanley Aarons Edit: Update from the presser is that Sargent will be available but Omobamidele has had a setback in training and Kabak has not yet trained so isn't available. Interesting point from DS: "Smith says he has seen 'growth' in his group in the last month. 'It was a group that wasn't used to being asked questions.' He points out they are much more vocal in team meetings. Praise for Grant Hanley's role in progressing that within the group."
It may be my imagination, but I do sense a feeling of more togetherness within the group, partly as a result of some good results of course, but also possibly because a major source of conflict has gone?
Time for Captain Pessimist to have his say. Assuming we get nothing out of the next 2 games we will have 4wins and 17 points out of 25 games. To stand a chance of staying up we will probably need the same number of points again out of 13 games - equivalent of 6 wins. Really??
This season could be very different as there are still 7 teams involved in the relegation scrap. To survive we have to finish with more points than 3 of the other teams. Brentford, Burnley and Newcastle all have to come to CR and those games will be crucial 6 pointers. Brentford have lost their last 6 games and have played one game more than us so they depend on turning that around soon. While we have taken 7 points from our last 5 games, Everton have taken 1 from 5, Watford have taken 2 from 5 and Burnley have taken 3 from 5. It's going to be tough for us, but it will be for the other 6 as well. We just have to keep going and try to continue our present improvement for our remaining games and get as many points as we can.
Five wins and two draws from 13 matches - I don’t think that’s impossible. Unlikely, yes, but not impossible, as we still have six of the bottom half to play and you never know at the end of the season if a top half team might be on the beach
For me, we have to beat Brentford and hope they implode, while staying ahead of Watford and Burnley. Newcastle, IMO, are safe - they have bought the points necessary to get them clear of the drop. Everton? Difficult to call, but I find it hard to believe they'll crash so badly that they end up with 30-33 points.
Some well made points in Robin Sainty's column this week. https://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/sport/norwich-city/norwich-city-face-manchester-city-8685334
Yeah I think that’s about right - it’s more important we beat the teams around us rather than necessarily totting up all the wins
To be honest, I'm not sure I agree with everything in that article. First, I think Smith calling these next two games an 'opportunity' is just him sensibly saying what fans want to hear and I'm not sure it will make much difference to the players on the pitch. Farke was too inflexible/principled (take your pick) to say things he didn't really believe in (or play a style of football he didn't believe in). IMO, this purism was his greatest asset and his greatest weakness at the same time. Smith is almost a polar opposite to Farke and his comment exemplifies his pragmatism. More importantly, while I agree that Farke's insistence on possession was 'one-dimensional', I feel the same can be said of our strategy against Palace. It worked wonderfully well for about 30 minutes, until Palace worked out how to deal with it. But then nothing changed as far as I can see. Yes, in theory we switched formation, to include another body in midfield, but the long diagonal balls kept being pumped upfield, except now the ball was coming straight back at us. In the end, we were very lucky to get away with a draw.
Possibly, but they've had a tough run of games including ManCity, Liverpool and ManUtd. Those games are out of the way and they still have 23 points on the board. They play Palace at home today and could stretch their lead over us to 9 points. We need to beat them, Newcastle and Burnley at CR to have any chance of survival. Watford play Brighton at home, Newcastle play Villa and Burnley play Liverpool. We can't do it on our own so we need other results to go in our favour.
Their recent poor run will have hit their confidence and they'll be in the same position we were after our tough run of games early in the season. They started the season well, possibly because unlike us they kept more of their core players from the championship season, their initial fixtures were more balanced and they didn't have a Cantwell type figure doing his best to derail the train. BUT despite what some on here would have you believe I don't think overall their squad is better than ours nor was their activity in the transfer market any better. Yes they got Ayer because they had deeper pockets than us and perhaps because they didn't have an Omobamideli coming through, but he's hardly turned out to be a Buendia type purchase. I think there is a good possibility of them finding themselves with us in the championship next season. Both teams best hope must be that Watford & Burnley go down with the other promoted team to them. If Dyche can do his usual magic trick I wouldn't be surprised to see all 3 promoted teams going straight back down. I wonder what odds are on that
I appreciate the points made about the other Clubs around us although I do believe that Newcastle with the players with Premier League experience they bought and the squad they already had will quickly pull away from trouble. I was looking at it purely from an overall point of view. Research earlier in this thread showed that on average you needed 35 points to avoid the drop and only twice have clubs escaped with less than 33 points. IMO we won't get 33 points let alone 35 so will this year be a year when a Club stays up with, say, 31 points - even if we can reach that target? I really cannot see that happening although obviously I hope I am wrong.
The unusual thing this year is that there are so many teams still involved and it will be as hard for them as it will be for us.
Everton now 2-0 up, Leeds carry a threat going forwards, and we're only 23 mins in, but that might be Everton back to winning ways...
Watford losing 0-1 to Brighton at HT. Brilliant Maupay goal as the Watford defence failed to pick him up.
