The victory of Conflated in yesterday's Irish Gold Cup left many people scratching their heads, wondering just how a horse who won the Foxrock Handicap Chase at Navan in early December off a mark of 145 could absolutely pulverise a top class field. Coming to the end of the back straight, 4 fences from home, we had Kemboy and Frodon duelling at the front with Minella Indo, Asterion Forlonge, Delta Work and Janidil all in close attendance. Yes, Conflated was there between horses but the assumption was, he would be just another Gigginstown also-ran and would fade at the business end of the race: A super leap at the third third last saw Conflated move into a narrow lead into the bend, with most of the best staying chasers in the game (naturally Galvin and A Plus Tard were not there) breathing down his neck: After the second last it was clear that Conflated was going ominously well. Davy Russell was motionless whilst all the other jockeys were urging their mounts to greater efforts: But their efforts were in vain as Conflated had flown. Minella Indo's stamina brought him a little closer after the last but Conflated stayed on all the way to the line to record a 6.5 length victory at an SP of 18/1. Ratings: Going into the race, Conflated was actually the lowest rated horse in the field at 157 - a career high mark for the son of Yeats as a result of his win in the Foxrock Chase off 145 at Navan. That victory was leg 6 of a magnificent 7-timer on the card for Elliott but even the most ardent fan of Conflated would have been hard pressed to say the performance screamed Irish Gold Cup winner. Career to date: 5 bumpers, 6 hurdle races, 9 chases and a run on the flat last September is the summary of Conflated's career prior to yesterday's race. As you would expect with his connections, he did contest some high class races over hurdles - 3rd in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Naas, 4th in the Lawlor's of Naas (behind Envoi Allen, Elixir D'Ainay and Longhouse Poet) and 4th in the Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at the 2020 DRF behind Asterion Forlonge. But he looked short of top class over hurdles and was sent chasing in October 2020. He won his beginners Chase at the 3rd attempt (beating The Big Getaway on his chase debut) and easily won a grade 3 novices chase at Naas before being well held by Mullins trio Janidil, Franco de Port and Asterion Forlonge in the Grade 1 Gold Cup Novice Chase at Fairyhouse last April. He started this season with that spin on the flat at Gowran Park (finished 4th) before unseating in the Kerry National (sent off 4/1 fav) and then finished 2nd to Eklat De Rire at Wexford (who has hardly advertised the form thereafter). Then came the Foxrock Chase and yesterday's race. In summary: a relatively normal career to date - bumpers, novice hurdles, novice chasing and then aim him at big handicaps in his second season chasing as his mark (145) looks workable. Headgear: Ben Linfoot makes a good point on Sporting Life this morning that Conflated wore a hood on his first 8 chase starts (both Elliott and Eddie O'Leary called the horse "quirky" in post-race interviews) but it is the removal of the hood which seems to have taken his form to new levels. To quote Linfoot: "Conflated, a horse who did all of his learning in a hood, and all of his improving with the headgear removed" Opposition: My learned friend SaveTheHumans posted yesterday that Conflated's victory might herald a changing of the guard and that could well be the case with younger horses filling 3 of the first 4 places (9 YO Minella Indo the other) and those older horses behind with lofty ratings - Kemboy, Delta Work, Frodon - may well indeed have passed the peak of their powers. Galvin and A Plus Tard, both just 7 and absent yesterday, look firmly part of that new guard. Summary: Whilst it looked a strong race on paper beforehand, perhaps a number of the field were past their best and no longer capable of running to their official ratings (certainly Minella Indo has been nowhere near his this season). With hindsight (which is a great thing), Conflated certainly was unexposed in the context of the race (as was Galvin at Christmas) and it seems Elliott knew that and insisted on running him in the Gold Cup yesterday (against the owners, who wanted him in the handicap chase today). The decision to run him without the hood (despite his quirks) is also testament to his trainer's knowledge and ability. Finally, Davy Russell got him into a lovely rhythm and confirms him as the best jockey currently riding. It will be very interesting to see where he goes next but I'm pretty sure Gigginstown will be looking to repeat Don Cossack's Cheltenham exploits with him and win their Holy Grail, the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Nice write up, Oddy. You’re becoming quite expressive in your old age- or maybe the frothy brown nectar inspires your unquestionable literacy. Either way, keep up the good work. I’ve nothing much to say about yesterday’s Gold Cup except that I agree about the “passing of the old guard.” Also, I wouldn’t swop my bet on Galvin for Cheltenham.
There is €150,000 of a bonus lying in wait should Conflated oblige in the blue riband at HQ in March as well. That's a heck of a carrot I was reading over some of the post race comments from trainers. DeBromhead seemed quite happy, realising it was a mistake to go to Kempton and he feels Minella Indo will be even better back in Cheltenham at March time.
You’d have to hope his stable finds a bit of form soon. Maybe Honeysuckle can kickstart things today.
Oddy, how is Conflated unexposed but Minella Indo past his peak with the former having 21 rules runs and the latter just 15? I would say that HDB will be very happy with Minella Indo, given that it was at least as good or if not better than his run in the same race last season. To me Minella Indo is one of those rare horses that saves his best for Cheltenham, and his whole season has been based around that one day in March. To me he ran a very solid preparation race and now should be feared for March. I’d much rather have him over the winner given his Cheltenham form.
I think I said Kemboy, Delta Work and Frodon are past their peak (at least that is what I meant to say). I don't believe they are low-mid 160 horses any more. I said Minella Indo has run nowhere near his mark this season - not that he is past his peak. He is an enigma and you may be right in saying he saves his best for Cheltenham - he has only 5 wins in 16 career starts yet his Cheltenham festival record reads 121. As a second-season chaser having his 4th chase of the season (the previous 3 finished being U21 and none at the highest level) I think you can say Conflated was unexposed in the context of the race yesterday - it was his first grade 1 in open company.
The lesson I take out of the race is to look more objectively at official ratings in these grade 1 races. I quickly passed over Conflated as I looked at his official rating and his last few runs and dismissed him as "not a Grade 1 animal".
