Rees-Mogg, in trying to justify Johnson's behaviour, is now saying that the lockdown rules were 'too hard'. What a ****. Listening to calls to LBC over the last few days, some of the most heartbreaking came from people who are now torturing themselves because they abided by the rules in staying away from dying relatives and now, after the number 10 revelations, desperately wish they hadn't.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59963700 unvaccinated workers at Next and Ocado who have to isolate because of someone else who has a positive coronavirus case to be given minimum sick pay. Sounds all well and good but in practice it sounds like people who have been exposed to coronavirus will just say **** off and go into work than receive minimum pay
Was reading on the BBC that about 22% of the deaths recorded including a diagnosis of COVID are deaths from non covid causes, up from 15% before Christmas, and a significant factor in the current rise in recorded deaths. Then had a look for more detailed info, because this debate on ‘aah, but a death with COVID is not necessarily a death from COVID’ has, justifiably rumbled on and on. Turns out it’s readily available, but probably of interest only to anoraks on this kind of thing like me. Official government data, cutting deaths by underlying cause, social deprivation location etc etc on 9 screens….fascinating……well I think so. So about 3,000 people die of cancer every week, a couple of hundred people with cancer died of something else, and at various stages of the pandemic over 500 cancer sufferers actually died because of (as opposed to with) COVID. There is a breakdown by quite a few major disease areas, and COVID itself. It takes a wade through to make sense of this stuff. It is mildly irritating that someone has not done a proper analysis and been able to present this data in a simple to understand format on a regular basis. I’m sure whoever is paid to put this data together could do it. Would put a lot of divisive argument to rest. https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJr...hMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9
I've read this twice and still don't get it. I am admittedly dyslexic when it comes to figures. Can you tell me how many more deaths are happening this month compared to a non pandemic year and also compared to a bad winter flu year? In very simple terms would be appreciated.
This month no because the figures only go to December 2021. Also, infuriatingly, they don’t give exact figures….. (wait for it, I will attempt an answer)….. …..and during the course of the pandemic the number of excess deaths has varied wildly from when we are in the depths of a ‘wave’ or out of one….in some months we have had fewer deaths than the five year average….. all that said: For the duration of the pandemic there have been 115,606 more deaths than the previous five years would indicate. Let’s say 58,000 a year extra for the last two years. Worst month April 2020 with 35,000 excess deaths (care home disaster) February 2021 about 18k excess deaths High figures in many other months. December 2021 about 4,000 excess deaths. Last bad flu year was winter 2014/15, with 44,000 excess deaths…spread over two years plus a bit for less bad flu in the previous and following winters say 30k a year. All the same arguments about dying of vs with flu apply. COVID had been much worse than a bad flu year but is now, for 2022, looking comparable, I think. We have either been very lucky, or have benefitted from COVID measures, that we haven’t had a serious , or even noticeable, amount of flu for the last two winters. Make sense? Happy to do your books for you….
Thanks Stan for doing all that, seems sensible. The other corollary I was reading about. Is we are due another bad flu year soon because we have been coddled away for the last two winters...and the flu virus ( its a different virus remember ) has been off there privately evolving/mutating away from the natural immunity we naturally build up over successive winters. We are going to have a bad flu year very soon. Oh joy..
Not before time. The Australian public are furious that he thought he was above them and could just waltz in wherever he felt like it. Hope he returns home on Aeroflot Airways and lands in Siberia.
Yes, thanks. I genuinely can't follow facts and figures. My brain just switches off as soon as I start reading them, hearing them or seeing them. Even the simple graphs the doom laden BBC put up leave me flummoxed. (I'm not thick.......honest guv!!). I was driving at the possibility that we're now approaching a similar amount of deaths as most winters and (I think!!?) you're excellent analysis seems to show that. I think there's also some validity in the theory that social distancing and other covid measures have greatly reduced the amount of seasonal flu cases, which makes the amount of deaths look even worse. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely understand and believe that there has been a very bad pandemic caused by covid resulting in huge numbers of excess deaths. I also believe that vaccinations have helped greatly in starting to get on top of covid. I'm now rather hopeful that we are seeing the end game of this ****er approaching.
I hope so too Col. Its been pretty damn awful. I do not think we are quite there yet ( this year) but definitely on right road. There are still excess deaths this year, and I am not going to argue about from Covid or with covid deaths either. In either case covid contributed, but most probably seasonal flu would have contributed . The omicron may have helped get the dreaded herd immunity into the population. That and the superb ( but uk centric) vaccine roll out has helped no end. In future years we will have bad covid winters like we have bad flu winters...but we will live with them... And in 10 of years time, we will have a population that has been immunised multiple times with different variants..and we can all think about covid19 as history
