i didn’t edit anything, I copied & pasted. take any objections up with the paper, not me. I am not the author. I’m done discussing it. Move on
I realise this will probably not persuade the doubters, but here's a thread from an epidemiologist about why lower severity of Omicron does not necessarily mean that it will have lower impact than Delta, which is why a lot of scientists still think we should be cautious and introduce restrictions. Myth debunking: After reading more misleading takes in the media, I'm going to try to explain this again- overall, omicron causes *more* and not less severe disease than delta - even at an individual level for most people. Why? Your risk of getting hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 (any variant) depends on two things? 1. how likely are you to get infected? 2. what is your chance of getting hospitalised *once infected* In simple terms, because omicron can escape immunity from past infections and vaccines, your protection against infection against omicron is vastly lower than with delta. This means risk of 1. is vastly increased- as you're less protected & also v. high background transmission. This risk would've been *much* lower with delta, as your chance of getting infected if vaccinated would've been much lower. You protection *once infected* (number 2. above) doesn't change much. But overall because 1. is hugely reduced, your total risk is actually higher. All the 'mild' takes compare omicron hospitalisations *once* infected, without accounting for the fact that omicron is infected people who're vaccinated and had past infection who wouldn't have been infected with delta at all because they were protected. So, it's increasing risk, rather than reducing it, by infection people who wouldn't have been infected with delta- which means we are actually at higher risk of severe disease - because of lower protection from infection with vaccination with omicron compared to delta. Remember, a huge part of the omicron advantage is being able to infect people with previous immunity that delta wouldn't have been able to penetrate. To argue that this somehow leads to a reduction in risk, is frankly nuts. So be wary of 'conditional takes' - that discuss risk of hospitalisation *once infected* because they don't account for the risk of infection which is hugely increased, and overall risk individually depends on both. And also on takes that don't acknowledge that omicron is infecting people who wouldn't have been infected by delta- many with prior immunity so with protection from severe disease- but still be more likely to get ill overall because delta wouldn't have infected them at all.
Omicron causes more cases -You have a greater chance of catching it, yes That does not mean omicron causes severe cases Nowhere in the above is the Severity of the infection discussed, merely the risk You have a high risk of catching the common cold, doesn't make the illness severe
Not a very good argument, even though I agree with your general principle For an individual if you had to have one or the other you’d want omicron because it’s less likely to make you really unwell. However it does kill some people so it’s probably best not to equate it to the common cold. Still at individual level it’s more likely you’d catch it Also at population level it will still cause problems in terms of pressure on NHS and volume of deaths if less people get poorly / die but more people get infected. How bad depends on those two ratios
I merely pointed out that severity of disease and likely-hood of catching it are two completely different things. The common cold analogy was just that, an analogy. I was not comparing the two diseases. My opinion is that if it is as infectious as claimed, no measures really help. If it is not as infectious as claimed then why bother. At some point we have to run with it, why not now.
It is mentioned but at no point justified or explained I'm not taking his word for it, that's not science.
Apart from the step by step logic that leads up to that statement? You can disagree with the way she reaches that conclusion, and feel free to explain what she gets wrong, but saying it's not explained just shows you haven't bothered reading it.
Believe me I have read it I have written many risk assessments in my time and she is saying that because you have a high incidence of cases you have a high risk situation. "After reading more misleading takes in the media, I'm going to try to explain this again-" She is not doing a very good job of it! Because anything, however high, multiplied by nothing is STILL equal to nothing Yes we have a high incidence of cases but we have no data at all (from her) of severity, merely opinion. Therefore what she says is opinion, not science Must do better Happy Xmas
Hi anyone had this stinker of a ‘cold’ / covid 10 days ago felt my throat dodgy but was busy for several days , t then did a negative test. Cold started to come . By Thursday sinus blocked and occasional cough sleeping appalling ( nothing new) Did another negative test. Over Xmas so far had about 6 hours sleep in 3 nights ,, can’t lay down cough too much, coughing up green stuff every time , expected but more than I’ve.ever known. . Sinuses have to be cleared every hour used 3 toilet rolls and two sprays so far . I get up today hoping it’s going to ease but no sign Will do another test . If yoube had this thing any advice would be good - be good Cheers
If you’ve written lots of risk assessments you’ll know that if the thing you’re assessing has killed some people, which omicron has, you won’t be using zero as the severity rating. A low figure hopefully, but not zero
Yeah @Chazz Rheinhold has had it. He’ll be along shortly to explain how he bravely battled through it…
did you take PCR or Lateral Flow - Lateral Flow should only be used if you are asymptomatic - if you already have symptoms you should take PCR
I’ve had sinus problems for years, a consultant told me never to use the over the counter nasal sprays. Best thing is to mix quarter teaspoon salt with half cup warm water and just sniff it a few times so the saline solution cleans out the sinus.
Brave is a word others use about me den I wouldn’t use it myself Obviously heroic would be more apt but who am I to say
I wonder how many people have had a seasonal cold or flu, and coincidentally also had asymptomatic covid.
