I've mentioned using mRNA to make broad-spectrum vaccines before, and it appears that one has been successfully developed by scientists in the US army system: https://www.defenseone.com/technolo...ctive-against-all-covid-sars-variants/360089/ That's the silver lining to all of this: we're going to have the tools to make future pandemics far less likely. These sorts of vaccines will end up as part of routine health care in the fashion that flu vaccines are, but far more effective, and with a much better chance of providing at least some baseline protection against unexpected influenza/coronavirus mutations. So, not only will deadly pandemics (and yearly flu epidemics) become far less likely, we'll also just straight-up get fewer colds.
I had also seen something about the covid vaccines offering protection against colds and flus I am sure I also saw something about attempts to use mRNA to make a form of cancer vaccine / treatment
Some colds would basically get caught in the crossfire of vaccinating against coronaviruses, as if you're trying to create a preventative vaccine based on the spike proteins of coronaviruses in general, some more benign ones will have similar enough spike proteins to offer at least limited protection, I'd imagine. It's a game-changer for influenza though. Apparently, all human-infecting influenza viruses share a specific protein, and if you can design an mRNA vaccine that targets that protein and variations thereof, you could eliminate or mitigate an awful lot of disease. Rhinoviruses, which cause the majority of colds, may remain undefeated though. There's been some talk about finding proteins common to enough of them to target rhinoviruses broadly, but I've also read that there is such a huge variety of them that it's fairly unlikely.
Perhaps if Thatcher hadn't shut down the Common Cold Research Unit in Salisbury we might be closer to finding a cure for it by now.
Some potential good news coming out of studies on this new variant. One in SA states that 70/80% less likely to result in an hospital admission (though there's not much difference in severity to those who do require hospital treatment). Here's hoping we get more data soon and that hospital admissions won't be excessive over the following couple of weeks.
Personally I think Wales and Scotland have completely overreacted by forcing sport behind closed doors.
I think we should just play it out and the government should step up restrictions only if things get dramatically worse....like riding a storm. Most people have a certain level of immunity (either due to vaccination or infection). The rumblings of discontent suggest that people can't take much more....and I don't mean just the antisocial, self-centred people....I mean also the vast majority who are decent, sensible folk you would expect to be reasonably compliant. The Romans used to say that to keep people happy you need to give them bread and circuses....in modern parlance, shopping and sport, theatre and concerts.
Worst case scenario = everybody dies Best case scenario = everybody dies, but not as quickly. I'll leave someone else to fill in the detailed figures, but the death rate will remain constant, at 100%
Presumably there will be a few years when the death rate is low due to some dying earlier than expected. Someone said to me that undertakers are doing well...I had to point out that all of us only die once and there will be fallow seasons even for undertakers.
My mate that I go to football with is an undertaker - true story. He is the one on call most nights (as he doesn't drink), and gets a call out most nights. People seem to die at the most unsociable hours. He told me the other day that he personally hasn't picked up a COVID death for some time - though the first spring there were quite a few from the old people homes etc. He goes to Poole mortuary in the hospital a lot to move bodies for the funerals and there are a few in there, but no where near as many as last Jan/Feb.
Hospital admissions will get pretty bad, even if the hospitalization rate is pretty low. This seems like the current lay of the land on balance (whole thread is worth reading): If -- and it's a substantial if -- Omicron crowds out more deadly variants completely and leaves fairly-lasting immunity and doesn't produce a new, more dangerous variant in the process, we should be erecting Omicron statues. But ****'s probably gonna get real for a few weeks. US hit a quarter million confirmed new cases today, and that's only going to rise, so even if hospital stays are more rare/shorter, it's still going to be a massive pileup in cases.
30-70% less severe than delta… but also chuck in the vaccine rollout would surely make it even less severe, no? The news love to lace good news with bad news. Now, how less severe is the common flu to the delta strand? Looking at the stats, about 70-80% less severe in terms of death
That guy isn't 'the news', he's the chair of the department of medicine at one of the most prominent teaching hospitals in the United States. And the common flu is way, way less severe. In a typical pandemic, the case fatality rate is less than .1%. The midrange estimates for the 2009 swine flu outbreak had it at around 284,000 deaths and 1 billion infected, a case fatality rate of one in every 3500. Estimates vary for COVID, but it's comfortably 15-20x higher. And his is the more optimistic view...the less-optimistic view is that it's just as severe as Delta, but the overall numbers look better simply because Omicron has enough immune escape that it's reinfecting a lot of people who were already infected. So it's close to as deadly with the unvaccinated, just less deadly with those who have caught COVID previously or are fully vaccinated.
Hospital in Liverpool saying that most of their intensive care patients haven’t been vaccinated and also saying that many of them are in their 30/40s. A separate report claimed that omicron is less harmful, but only if you are fully vaccinated, including the booster. If hospitalisation does increase we run the risk of not having enough beds. One way around that has been reported as sending “improving” patients home with a machine/device that monitors their oxygen levels, on the understanding that they will be rehospitalised if their levels drop to a specified figure. A friend of mine was sent home from Winchester hospital with such a device and has remained at home. Another issue is still not having a joined up Social Care plan, despite Johnson saying before he was elected that he had a plan ready to go. On December 12th, Southampton General had 192 medically fit for discharge patients. They were only able to discharge 28, which meant 164 beds were blocked, simply because the patients didn’t have a safe environment to be released into.
Fran I love it when people make statements about what the Romans would have done. This is a period of history which fascinates me and I am an obsessive reader of anything about this period I can lay my hands on. Whilst I think you have made a very good analogy, the one thing i would say is that the more I read about them, the less I understand them. Their perspectives on life were so different from our own that even if we can understand some aspects about them, it does leave me wondering whether we can ever get into the same mindset as them. I went to a lecture in Winchester 18 months ago given by the hisotrian Tom Holland which considered how christianity led to the disintegration of the Roman mindset and how it ultimately changed the way we lived to the extent that it utlimately led to the more decadent Roman ideas being totally surplanted and ultimately lost to society. It is fascinating the speed at which the perception of Omicron is developing and I do agree with the statement made by Tom that the action of the Welsh and Scottish parliaments does seem like an over-reaction. It does underscore my perception of Drakeford being what some people would call an old woman and I agree that he has jumped the gun too quickly on this issue. It is interesting how Covid has seen the country fragment in the devolved governement's responses to the crisis. I don't think this has helped in arriving at a concerted, Uk solution to the problem. However, it does help explain why a co-ordinated global response has been so ineffectual. I was quite interested to read the article on line this morning from, I think , the Daily Mail which looked at the low vaccine take up in Lambeth. Having worked in this area of London myself briefly, it was a fascinating read and demonstrative that there are cultural issues at play which mean that the vaccine take up will always remain low. I do not have much sympathy with people who object to vaccination but the article did help explain that there are other factors beyond the right wing anti-vaccination nutter lobby who are not taking up the jabs. I would suggest that convincing these people may prove more difficult that the conspiracy theory mob who are rightly ridiculed.
The Welsh Police have been given powers to remove relatives from your house on xmas day. What is not clear is if this is a free service or if you have to book in advance?
