Bobby Ball, Eddie Large, Tim Brooke-Taylor and Jethro, the virus has been rampant in the comedy world.
The latest Sage papers were published this evening, envisaging anything from 200 to 6,000 deaths a day from Omicron depending on how many more restrictions we’ll get – up to and very much including another lockdown. Earlier today I had an unexpected chance to ask questions of Prof Graham Medley, the chair of the Sage modelling committee. The Twitter thread has received a bit of attention (and comments) making it hard to read. So I’ll reprint it here. As well as chairing Sage modellers, Prof Medley is with the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) which last weekend published a study on Omicron making the case for more restrictions. In a note sent to clients, JP Morgan pointed out that those scenarios assume Omicron was just as virulent as Delta. ‘But evidence from South Africa suggests that Omicron infections are milder,’ JP Morgan said. Adjust for this, it found, and the outlook changed dramatically. “‘Bed occupancy by Covid-19 patients at the end of January would be 33% of the peak seen in January 2021. This would be manageable without further restrictions.’ So JP Morgan had spotted something pretty big; tweak one assumption and – suddenly – no need for lockdown. Might it be that small and very-plausible tweaks to these scenarios can make quite a massive difference to the evidence for lockdown? If so, why would this fairly-important and fairly-basic fact not be presented by modellers to ministers – and to the general public? There is no one better to ask about how Sage works than Prof Medley, so I was thrilled for the chance to speak to him on Twitter. It was kind of him to make the time (he’s still going, as far as I can make out). The Sage paper-drop tonight – the 6,000-deaths-a-day one – is a ‘scenario’ and Prof Medley emphasises that a scenario is not a prediction. I then jumped in asking why the JP Morgan scenario was not published… please log in to view this image please log in to view this image please log in to view this image Apologies for the language at the end, but it was the last tweet that he replied to on this thread. I’m still not quite sure what to extract from the above. But Prof Medley seems to hint that he has been given a very limited brief, and asked to churn out worse-case scenarios without being asked to comment on how plausible they are. “‘We generally model what we are asked to model. There is a dialogue in which policy teams discuss with the modellers what they need to inform their policy.’ Might this remit mean leaving out just-as-plausible, quite-important scenarios that would not require lockdown? “‘Decision-makers are generally on only interested in situations where decisions have to be made.’ Note how careful he is to stay vague on whether any of the various scenarios in the Sage document are either plausible or likely. What happened to the original system of presenting a ‘reasonable worse-case scenario’ together with a central scenario? Worryingly, we see none of that in tonight’s Sage papers. From what Prof Medley says, it’s unclear that the central scenario is even being presented to ministers this time around. How are they supposed to make good decisions if there is no guidance about the probability of each scenario? I highly doubt that Sajid Javid is only asking them for pro-lockdown modelling. That instruction, if it is being issued, will have come from somewhere else. Robert Dingwall, until recently a JCVI member, has said that Medley’s candour reveals “a fundamental problem of scientific ethics in Sage” as “the unquestioning response to the brief is very like that of SPI-B's behavioural scientists”. He suggests that the Covid inquiry looks into all this. At a time when we have just been given a new set of ‘scenarios’ it might be good if someone – if not Prof Medley – would clear up what assumptions lie behind the new 6,000-a-day-dead scenario, and if emerging information about Omicron and its virulence have been taken into account. And how probable it is that a double-jabbed and increasingly boosted nation (with 95 per cent antibody coverage) could see this worst-case scenario come to pass. \ I’ve asked Prof Medley to come on Spectator TV, to have a longer conversation outside Twitter. He has written for us before so I hope he accepts. For now, although I often curse the platform, I should thank Twitter for giving me the chance to ask some questions of someone so relevant to such an important debate. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...hairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee
Facts are very boring when you are a totally brain dead conspiracy theorist imbecile living in failing Jockshire and think everything is somebody else’s fault.
The brain dead conspiracy theorists on this thread (most of the contributors) love to post predictions of lockdowns every month and then go remarkably quiet when reminded that they were totally wrong. If it does not come from some brain dead American trailer park trash on Twitter, it cannot be true. So I am going to apply some logic and make a prediction... FACTS Feb 2020: SAGE member Prof. Neil Ferguson said that lockdowns do not work. March 2020: Prof. Neil Ferguson predicts 200,000 dead by Christmas and calls for a lockdown two weeks later. March 2020: Boris does the first lockdown to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed. March 2020: the media catch Prof. Neil Ferguson visiting his married lover for a leg over, breaking lockdown rules. March 2020: Prof. Neil Ferguson does not get sacked from his six-figure salary job. Saturday: Prof. Neil Ferguson is widely reported in the media calling for a lockdown to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed. Sunday: there is an emergency COBRA meeting scheduled in Downing Street. PREDICTIONS Sunday: it will be announced that Boris will be holding a press conference at 6pm. Sunday: at 6pm Boris will announce that there is going to be a lockdown starting Boxing Day to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed. There may be a whole bunch of cretins on here at 6:01 to gleefully tell me I was wrong...
Quaterwit There will be no booster shots There will be no covid passport to enter businesses There will be no lockdowns again There will be no mandatory vaccine roll outs ..................................................................... Did I miss anything else ?
No **** is interested in his 4000 word dissertations because he’s been proven wrong countless times, yet still has the gall to call us conspiracy theorists for being able to predict the direction of travel. Thank goodness for the right wing scum columnists and the evil Tory back-benches for offering some push back to Johnsons Juntas authoritarian march.
Apple stores have a strict no face mask no entry policy with hired goons enforcing it even for those exempt. That's why they protested outside it has nothing to do with Bill Gates .
