How helpful of Germany and all those other countries to bring in new restrictions to assist in this distraction, eh?
Some interesting data in this https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...reacting-may-early-panic-real-impact-omicron/ A mild case of overreacting? Why it may be too early to panic over real impact of omicron As England executes Plan B based on early South African data, some ask if it was wise to do so without seeing how bad the variant can get ByJoe Pinkstone, SCIENCE CORRESPONDENT andPeta Thornycroft IN JOHANNESBURG10 December 2021 • 12:03pm please log in to view this image When Prof Chris Whitty said on Wednesdaythat there was an “incredibly steep” increase in Covid cases in South Africa, the country was held up as a warning to the impending doom in the UK. England’s Chief Medical Officer pointed to a 300 per cent spike in hospitalisations to help justify the raft of new restrictions coming our way. However, while the headline figures on case numbers are alarming, it remains to be seen just how severe disease from omicron is. Early evidence indicates it may, in fact, be milder than previous variants. With soaring case numbers over the past two weeks, it is to be expected that hospitalisations in the country would subsequently rise. But the great unknown in the battle against this worrying new variant is how likely it is to kill. Even the world’s foremost scientists and medical professionals must, for now, sit tight in a bleak game of “wait-and-see”. There is good cause to fear omicron as it is believed to be more infectious and better at avoiding vaccines, but if it is also more mild, what does this mean for hospitalisations and deaths? Some people think it will be devastating, but previous knee-jerk reactions from gloomy academics have regularly been proved wrong when their doom-mongering predictions fail to materialise. And yet, Sage warned this week that even if omicron is only half as deadly, the sheer number of infections could lead to significantly more pressures on healthcare. “Currently, there is no strong evidence that omicron infections are either more or less severe than delta infections,” said Britain’s leading scientists. However, while experts such as Prof Whitty yearn for large trials, robust data and clear evidence, initial anecdotal and preliminary findings indicate omicron may be more mild than other variants on a pound-for-pound basis. This, however, is a contentious issue among academics, and sits on rocky scientific ground. Dr Richard Mihigo, the immunisation and vaccines development programme co-ordinator at the World Health Organisation’s Africa division, said: “Emerging data from South Africa suggests that omicron may cause less severe disease. “Data which looked at hospitalisation across the country between 14 November and 4 December found that ICU occupancy was only 6.3 per cent which is very low compared to the same period when South Africa was facing the [July] peak which was linked to [the] delta variant.” Again, like all scientists have learnt over the past two years, he was swift to add a caveat, urging cautionary interpretation of the findings. “This is still a preliminary analysis and we will need another two to three weeks to determine omicron’s full effects,” he said, hedging his bets. Although these reports are just now emerging, there is resistance from some scientists to take it on board. A report from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) in South Africa has found that just one in three hospital cases of Covid-19 in Tshwane, the metropolitan area which includes Pretoria where the first suspected outbreak of the omicron occurred, over the past month were deemed severe, with the patient needing supplemental oxygen or ventilation. In contrast, the figure was 66 per cent early in the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic earlier this year and 67 per cent in early 2020. The NICD cautioned that the study had some inherent limitations – it is not yet peer-reviewed – and that severe cases could rise as the fourth wave gets going. The report also said nothing about whether the patients had been vaccinated. Dr Richard Friedland, the chief executive officer of Netcare, the largest private health care provider in South Africa, told The Telegraph that early trends during the country’s fourth wave indicated a “far less severe form” of Covid-19. During the first three waves, 100 per cent of the 55,000 Covid-19 patients hospitalised in Netcare facilities needed oxygen, he said. So far, during the new wave, only 10 per cent of 337 hospitalised patients need oxygen. “Having personally seen many of our patients across our Gauteng hospitals, their symptoms are far milder than anything we experienced during the first three waves,” Dr Friedland said, referencing the South African region currently experiencing a dramatic surge of omicron variant infections. However, the healthcare provider and other South African experts all stressed that these were only preliminary results, protecting themselves from backlash down the line in case it transpires omicron is equally, or more, dangerous. And, it seems, the claims of those working on the frontline in Southern Africa are not just hopeful conjecture, but shoots of genuine optimism which are now being echoed outside of Africa. Marco Cavaleri, the head of biological health threats and vaccines strategy at the European Medicines Agency, said: “Cases appear to be mostly mild, however we need to gather more evidence to determine whether the spectrum of disease severity caused by omicron is different [to] that of all the variants that have been circulating so far.” While South Africa data begins to take a cohesive form and reveals a less murky picture of severity, how this applies to other countries, including the UK, remains to be seen. Prof John Edmunds, a member of Sage and a professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said on Thursday that some aspects of the data “immediately translate” but others, such as those on severity, are difficult to extrapolate. “Estimating the crude rate of hospitalisation [using] severity indicators, I think, is very difficult to do and [it is] very difficult to compare between countries because the population is very different to the population here. “There’s an average difference of 15 years [between the age of the average South African and the average Briton] and those averages hide huge differences. They’ve got a much larger, young adult population [in South Africa] than we have here in the UK. “There’s much fewer older people, proportionately, in South Africa. And so, if you just look at crude hospitalisation rates in South Africa, you’ll get the wrong answer. You can’t just apply them here. We would have much higher hospitalisation rates on average, because our population is much older.”
We haven't even really started on plan B and already the gaslighting as started on plan C, most likely begging of January...pubs to go back to customers wearing masks indoors, table service with the new addition of needing to show a vaccine passport for entry, is this really a proportiant response to a varaint all of the experts and thoose on the ground are saying is mild, i don't think so. The hospitality industry will be hammered again and presumbly gig venues will no longer be able to function proberbly and for what ? not to mention the discrimination aspects of this ? plenty of real world data around the world showing vaccine passports make absolutly zero difference to cases etc,
No big deal to take a lateral flow test or carry your vaccine status on your phone when you go to the pub. Wearing a mask is no great hardship either. If this kills off pubs then that's down to the public making more of it than they need to.
It just doesn’t affect enough people badly enough for the population as a whole to see the justification for life as we’re used to stopped, or even hampered. If it was Ebola then people would see it differently and probably not want to leave the house. People have died, but the vast majority won’t know anybody directly who has, or even been hospitalised. The handful of people I know who’ve had it just couldn’t taste their food for a week or so. After nearly two years of living with one hand tied behind our backs people just can’t strike a balance with the pros and cons anymore.
On SKY right now talking of a million cases a day in the UK by the end of the month, And as I type that they correct it to 1 million cases total by end of the month
Surely they have done it to help deflect attention on a year old party like you reckon Boris has done? Can't be because it is considered necessary, surely?
Really good news, but at the same time anecdotal evidence. The facts so far do seem to back it up but I’m not surprised the Government is being cautious about a spike in cases of a new varient, however mild. Im curious as to how much peoples lives will actually change next week. Bit of extra admin to do what you want to do, but nothing closed off unless you test positive on a LFT. Masks In more enclosed spaces but not pubs or restaurants, which seemed to be the biggest deal at the time. Work from home isn’t great, but only for those who can but schools still open. A lot of pants pissing over nothing?
Governments do this all the time. Like hyping up bullshit stories while they freeze nhs pay for another year in parliament. To pretend this is not what's happened here is wrong.
A bit more from project fear…… Off course you have http://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...tions-under-review-says-michael-gove-12492075COVID-19: UK government shown 'very challenging new information' on Omicron and will keep restrictions 'under review', says Michael Gove
1250 ish cases so far, it's going to take something special to get to the feared 1 million by the end of the month,
