Thursday's Meetings Curragh Flat 8 Races 12:40-4:35p.m. Tramore N/H 7 Races 1:00-4:22p.m. Wincanton N/H 6 Races 1:15-4:05p.m. Carlisle N/H 8 Races 1:23-5:40p.m. Brighton Flat 7 Races 2:10-5:40p.m. Chelmsford(E) A/W 7 Races 5:30-8:30p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Carlisle 3.40 Snowed In Worth a small each way. On a good mark and last time out at Kelso wasn't a bad run when leading until weaking after the last (5th). Today down in trip could be a good move. The horse is a CD winner and Thomas Dowson a good jockey in my opinion.
It is Brighton today for my ramblings, sorry all if you were expecting anything but that! 2.10 I am really confused with the market for this race, it has Big Bard and Big Impact at the fore, both are horses who have come good on the all weather at Chelmsford but haven't got any form on turf or at the course. I am pretty surprised that they are so short, but I guess that is because they have the illusive (to most of these) 1 next to their names. That said, they are both carrying penalties and as they are taking so much out of the market, I find that I almost have to have a bet against them!! So with what (I hear you sigh/say/shout)? Well it is all about course form for me, and having watched back the recent runs of Coppanity Con, Ocean Wilde and Essaka I think we should concentrate on those three. They all met over the course and distance a month ago when CC finished 2nd, Essaka 3rd and Ocean Wilde tailed off eventually. That race was run at a funny pace, the sectionals suggest they went slow from the start, but when they quickened (4f-3f) Essaka being out the back had to do a 10.14 second furlong to stay with them. They then did another sub 11 second furlong before then flattening out towards the finish. This suggests that the key part of the race was the positioning from the start and that dropping out of the stalls didn't do Essaka any good. So what does that mean? I think Essaka wasn't suited to the run of the race, being wide and having to make up ground in the middle section when the pace was increasing, so I think the way he finished suggested that with a better paced race he could well improve. Today he should get that with Campachoochoo (stupid name for any horse) in the field, and a bigger field should also help tow him into the race. I can't back Coppanity Con because the yard are back out of form. So that just leaves the enigma that is Ocean Wilde, this is a course winner this season over 5 furlongs and has plenty of other good course form. He however bombed out in the race aforementioned, but I think looking at his recent Chelmsford run with Big Bard (beaten 4 1/2 lengths) you can see that he is in better form than the pure numbers suggest. He didn't land a blow that day, but it was a race dominated by those at the fore, plus the fact that he is a turf horse rather than one thats shown best form on the AW. I like them both, so have had to play them both (each way) Essaka @ 20/1 Ocean Wilde @ 20/1 5:05 Incorrigible is the one for me here, I really like how she battles at this course and I though her run at Ffos Las last time was still full of credit in a race where they probably didn't go fast enough to play to her strengths. Hopefully Twentysharesofgrey goes hard enough here and she can pick her off in the final furlong. Incorrigible @ 4/1 5:40 Interesting race to finish the card with four course winners in attendance. Everyone loves a Spreadsheet, and he is interesting on course form and I thought he was pretty eyecatching at the course last time out. That day it was softer ground and it could be that he isn't effective on softer ground, which would make him very interesting today. However, I do not think that is true, and I think he is more of a good-soft ground horse than a faster ground horse and the potentially faster ground here won't play to his strengths. The ground will suit Batchelor Boy, he has some very decent course form on faster ground and it doesn't surprise me that he is towards the head of the market, my concern with him is that Shamshon is slightly better off with him at the weights than when they met here earlier in teh season. A race that ended in an head bob that Batchelor Boy won. However it is the 10 year old Shamshon that I am taking to reverse the places. The old boy loves Brighton and he loves a battle, he has dropped a couple of pounds since a disappointing run at Yarmouth a month ago, but that and the slight break means that he is well enough handicapped and could return to previous course form from this season. If he does I think he will run another massive race. Shamshon @ 8/1
