They'll kick themselves if they don't make that. They really should. Maybe two Somerset players can be injured tomorrow, so that they have to finish their innings 8 down. Might be the only chance for any of us, Lancs, or Notts (the latter of whom need to get those 8 runs tomorrow, otherwise they are done).
It was only one over, so it's hardly relevant, but I'm not sure about choosing Dawson over Crane for that final over. They were never going to attack, so it was all about trying to bowl that one ball to get through the batsman's defences. And Crane was more likely to produce such a ball.
Assuming they do get it, there's no guarantee they'll pick up all 3 bowling points and force a win. The pitch looks flat. Although I wouldn't trust Somerset's batsmen on a road.
The last sentence is key. I trust their batters so little, that I'm saying them getting injured is more likely than batting well!
As long as they can get beyond whatever the follow-on target will end up being, that will help to take some more time out of the game!
I'll be well pissed off if we don't win the CC because of bonus points, we should've been well capable of getting the 2 batting points to have put that out of the equation.
Still very much in the balance! In order to win the title we will need to beat Lancs, first and foremost. We only made 143 but have them 25-3 on a difficult pitch to bat on. That said, 143 is still probably under par and we'll need the bowlers to dig us out of a little bit of trouble yet again. The fact that we didn't get any batting bonus points has given Warwickshire a great chance of taking the title. If they can score another 67 runs in the first 14 overs of play tomorrow in their match against Somerset (they are only 4 wickets down), then take 9 or all 10 Somerset wickets in 110 overs of Somerset's first innings and then go on to win, then they will finish above Hampshire regardless of how well we may go on to end up winning the Lancs match. Somerset's batting is even dodgier than Hampshire's so none of us are terribly optimistic about the chances of them keeping the Warwickshire attack, including England's Chris Woakes and Tim Bresnan, at bay for the rest of the match to slow the Warwickshire charge. I don't think the weather will intervene in any of the games.
The bonus points only apply during the first 110 overs of each side's first innings, by the way. The only possible other things that could affect matters would be a points deduction for a 'poor' pitch for Warwickshire or they lose points due to a slow overall over rate when bowling, but neither will happen. Their pitch looks to be playing OK and they'll make sure to keep up with the required over rate. They have the advantage now of knowing exactly what they need to do, get to 350 in the first 110 overs, bowl Somerset out and go on to win the match. It might be interesting if Hain gets out early tomorrow, but Woakes and Bresnan can both put bat to ball and I'd be very surprised (and delighted) if they failed to make that 350 mark in time. It looks like we'll be relying on Somerset to bat decently and at least bat long enough both times to secure the draw. Plus the small matter of Hampshire actually winning!
Strictly speaking Lancs can pip them by beating us and getting full batting points. But that's pretty much impossible!
It will be extremely annoying if we miss out on the title by 1 bonus point, i.e. penalising us for not being able to sneak up to 200 in our first innings against Lancs...
200-220 would probably have been about par given the conditions and that would have left Warwickshire needing to score 400 in 110 overs, so another 117 in 14 overs (ceteris paribus).
Ultimately what will cost us should we beat Lancs and still not win the title is only carrying 8.5 points through from the first stage. Which will mean that Somerset will have screwed us over 3 times this season.
