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Daily Racing Thread Saturday 17th. July 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Jul 16, 2021.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    #1
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  2. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    4.00 Curragh-Verhoyen

    Each Way @ 11-1 [William Hill] 5 places

    Won this race in 2019, and again over CD last time
     
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  3. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The 1.40 Newmarket sees the Gosden's Tinderbox near favourite on debut. The Farhh filly takes on a few with pieces of form/promise but the bar is not set too high for now. Last year the stable had their poorest 2YO bunch I could remember for a while and John Gosden said going into Royal Ascot that they "Had a couple of nice 2YO's". Dhabab was clearly one of those, as he went off favourite for the Coventry, and Reach For The Moon might have been another, as he was runner up in the Chesham before getting off the mark at long odds on yesterday. I have to not that Find, who was 1/3 yesterday, got turned over and I feel like taking Tinderbox on based on the overall look of the Gosdens 2YOs so far this season.

    Rouge Et Noir was third on debut for Charlie Fellowes when not given a hard time. There has only been one minor winner from that race in 14 starts and the two fillies Rouge Et Noir split that day have both been beaten twice since then. They are 70 and 71 rated fillies and the standard looks a little low to me.

    Seniorita didn't do a lot when 5th on debut and arguably looks bred for further than 7F, while Value Theory was third on debut but also looks as if stepping up a bit should suit. She ran well enough at this trip at Kempton but it's the dreaded Mark Johnston for me and the filly of his I backed just the other day, Bailey's Liberty, ran 37 lbs below her official rating, which was a shocking effort.

    First Crowd was 4th at Newbury first time out and that looks on a par with most of today's previous form. Maybe a bit of value at 8/1 with the step up to 7F likely to suit but it's a bit of a worry that it is 32 days since the trainer had a winner.

    My money landed on Annie's Song. She was only 7th on debut but ran a bit better when 3rd next time. It looked that day that 7F would suit and her stable have been out of sorts at times this season. The Charlton stable are in good form now though at 26% and I took a chance that the extra furlong and better stable form may see her progress enough to land this one.

    1.40 Newmarket Annie's Song 11/2

    Annie's Song/First Crowd RF

    Best of luck to all today.
     
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  4. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    Value Theory was punted off the boards at Kempton Grendel, ran a bit green after a tardy start and was doing good work at the end. The way she was backed that day would lead you to believe they think very well of her. I'd be siding with her and at 10/3, she is looking a lot more attractive than the 5/2 last night.
     
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  5. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    Market Rasen
    14,05 Camprond 4/1 bet365
    14,40 Captain Tom Cat 4/1 Won last there, stable (4/16) and jockey (5/22) on fine form.

    Cartmel
    15,05 Native Fighter 10/3
    16,50 Muroor 12/1 e/w bet365 three places, others 9/1 four places

    Newbury
    15,00 Tabdeed 7/2
    15,40 Gubbass 13/2 e/w four places with WH, others 6/1 five places
     
    #5
  6. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    LITTLE STEVIE 15/2 Market Rasen 4:22
    Standing dish at this track and looks to have been laid out for this race. Kieran Woods rides for the first time and he is a jockey I rate very highly.
     
    #6
  7. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Diligent Harry is a horse I thought would turn into a decent sprinter. He bumped into Rohaan in a Handicap but got back on track next time. Third in the Chipchase last time it could be argued that Tabdeed will get the better of it this time with a run under his belt and 2 lbs better in from his fourth last time but Diligent Harry makes his turf debut today and the Cox stable are flying, after being in the doldrums earlier in the season.

    Kings Lynn was a bit unfortunate last time and didn't have it easy in the run prior to that and he is clearly decent but I went with the younger horse as having more potential for a stable firing at 30%.

    3.00 Newbury Diligent Harry 4/1
     
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  8. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    Saturday Telly Tossers!

    Newb
    150 Felix ew
    225 Just Hubert
    300 Kings Lynn
    340 Chipotle

    MR
    205 Red Force One ew
    240 Templepark ew
    310 Taste The Fear

    Good luck all <ok>
     
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  9. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Oh f@@@ me nooooooo, I have backed RED FORCE ONE and TEMPLEPARK in EW singles and a double today!
     
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  10. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    I'd normally sympathise, but having won the Saturday league 2 weeks in a row, I'm on a bit of a roll :D
     
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  11. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Mushed <laugh>



    Great film <ok>
     
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  12. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    The problem with today’s racing is that there are several running that owe me money from Royal Ascot that are not without chances, so should I be chasing my losses? Solid Stone was third in the Wolferton when backed down to favourite but has a penalty to carry against the Royal Hunt Cup winner Real World as well as three year olds including Enable’s half-brother Derab.

    It is difficult to summon up much enthusiasm for the card at HQ as there look to be quite a few favourites in small fields that could well oblige.

    Once again the feature at Newbury, the Super Sprint has turned out to be a bit of a non event with a large field and a short-priced favourite. Chipotle has the best form just ahead of Vintage Clarets but I would be more interested in something like Gubbass, run once won once from the Hannon yard and probably laid out for today. They should make this a handicap and see who can fiddle their horse the best to get the lowest weight – the Dascombe horse Prince Kendeux would need a flyweight on it.

    Tabdeed won the Hackwood Stakes (15:00) last year after a warm up in the Chipchase and returns to try and repeat the feat. He was fourth at Newcastle and the third that day Diligent Harry re-opposes, trying to convert tapeta form to turf. Ruling out a winning return to the course for last year’s Super Sprint winner Happy Romance, I think that they might have to fight out the places behind The Queen’s horse KING’S LYNN, third in the Wokingham and hailing from the Balding barn that could probably win a race with the family cat right now.

    My bet of the day though runs in the 16:10. I cannot see how the Haggas filly Ready To Venture is favourite as it was well beaten last time with Fairy Cakes three lengths in front in fifth – and that one was second last time in a Sandown handicap. So the clear form choice here is DECLARED INTEREST, beaten barely a length in fourth in the Kensington Palace after winning from the front at Leicester on seasonal bow. Will Hector Crouch be told to make all today?
     
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  13. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    That might end today pal, I'm on 5 of yours
     
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  14. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The Super Sprint at 3.40 wouldn't be the same without some Hannon runners and this one has SIX runners from the stable. It is hard to escape the fact that Chipotle and Vintage Clarets look different gravy to the rest of this field.

    Chipotle won the Windsor Castle in a big field and although the race hasn't panned out that well, latest disappointment Bond Chairman, the runner up Dig Two set off at a suicidal pace next time when down the field and Chipotle did win the race decisively for a 5F contest.

    Vintage Clarets ran a belter in the Coventry when 3rd and he is only 2 lbs behind Chipotle on 103 in the official rankings. That Coventry was very tight in behing Berkshire Shadow though and several have been beaten since. Sole winner from the Coventry, Caturra, scrambled home by a neck and the race hasn't really been franked yet. He drops to 5F now and although he has won at the trip it was as favourite in Novice races and I feel class can offset trip requirements, as we saw with Japan the other day, dropping more than half a mile from his Ormonde winning distance to narrowly score.

    I believe Chipotle will prove hard to beat today and other than his defeat on really soft at Sandown, where he travelled well before the petrol ran out, he has looked a speedy sort with a touch of class.

    Not great odds though, so I have doubled him with Princess Nadia. The Gosdens filly has been second and third so far. The first was a third place on soft ground on her debut and it wasn't a great run on soft ground but she was better next time when runner up to a horse who was second in a group race next time. She looked that day as if she didn't quite get home and this 10F may be her optimum trip. By Sea The Stars she is open to more improvement.

    Mawenzi is one for one but in a Wolverhampton race in November and hasn't been seen since, so you wouldn't think that was the plan. I feel she has a little to find to reach Princess Nadia's level and the absence is a concern.

    I feel Princess Nadia can come forward and land this race.

    3.40 Newbury Chipotle 2/1
    4.45 Newbury Princess Nadia 5/2

    Win double
     
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  15. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    14:40 Market Rasen - Francky Du Berlais

    (Progressive chaser with a good chance in this big field. Any NH runner from the Bowen trainer and son combination should always be respected., especially when the ground is good (don't know why, but it has always appeared that way to me). Best price at time of writing is 12/1 with Unibet, but 10/1 is the price generally available.)

    I wish you all an enjoyable days racing, and good luck with your punts! <cheers>
     
    #15
  16. Big tone

    Big tone Member

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    Taking a chance with Rough Diamond e/w 5/1 paying 6 places on sky bet in the scurry 4-00 Curragh.
     
    #16
  17. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Good call mate, only because you mentioned it I stuck it in a double with Vintage Clarets later. Fingers crossed.

    Tinderbox the one to take out of the race. Finished off really strongly and will certainly improve from this first day at school.
     
    #17
  18. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    3:25 Curragh - Party House 33/1 ew. Snowfall is an insane price that's creating value elsewhere. Champion jockey for a top trainer and should appreciate the extra distance. Hopefully the 8 runners go to post and the 3 places remain on offer
     
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  19. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Market told the story with Value Theory backed to 2/1 and Annie's Song on the drift. Annie's Song ran well enough and held every chance but just didn't seem to get home. Value Theory quickened up well to come and land it with a bit in hand. Tinderbox took time to get going but ran on well late in a promising debut to just pip Annie's Song for second place by a nose. I was surprised to see Senorita backed into 6/1 and she was pretty poor in a race where the first 4 pulled more than 8 lengths clear of the rest. Value Theory looked pretty useful today but I find Mark Johnston unreliable and might be wary if she was running at a short price next time.
     
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  20. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    But not entered! Or just real dosh? :)
     
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