Charlie Appleby confirmed that Native Trail will probably contest the National Stakes next. He said that the concern today was that the ground might be too fast. Although sire Oasis Dream liked it fast, Appleby said that his colt is "A big unit, with big feet" and that he feels some ease in the ground will suit him. Stating that he reckons we won't see the best of the colt until he steps up to a mile, he added that the target after the National Stakes will be either the Futurity or The Lagardere in France.
Apologies for posting way after the fact on Sunday morning; but I will presume that Newmarket had some light rain at some point over Friday night/Saturday morning. If there was noticeable kick back that will be because the small amount of rain only soaks into the top layer of turf as the underlying ground is firm, so the horses only kick the top layer off. This is also a problem that occurs when racecourses decide to water the track at the last minute the day before racing. I am no fan of racecourse watering generally as it was originally allowed to promote the growing of the grass rather than to alter the underlying ground but it is totally abused these days. Some of us can remember the days when the going at place like Bath regularly used to be described as ‘hard’ because they had no watering in those days; but long dry summers have been out since 1976.
The problem with Native Trail is that he almost looks like a three year old now. Almost all of the preliminaries were taken up with the various ITV pundits commenting on how big he is compared to the others. Over the winter they will hope that he fills into that immense frame and becomes stronger. The physical advantage that he has over the other two year olds may disappear over the winter months as they progress naturally. By the end of the season he could be unbeaten having collected a couple of Group 1s and be a short-priced favourite for the 2000 Guineas. Anybody remember the wonder horse Pinatubo’s nine length win in the National Stakes? Odds on for the rearranged Guineas, he was beaten by Kameko and Wichita (reversing Dewhurst running). That said, 40/1 is a nice bet to be holding with a chance.
I agree that Starman ought to see his rating elevated to something above 120 as most of the chief protagonists went into the race with ratings in the mid hundred teens; and he beat them quite emphatically. If they take third Oxted as a yardstick (as he ran his race) then Starman would get raised 8lb to 124 because Oxted was top-rated 119. Naturally Dragon Symbol would be elevated to 119/120 for second. It did look to be the champion sprinter performance but when Walker was interviewed post race he did say how hard it was going to be to place the horse. They bypassed the intended Royal Ascot target because of the soft/heavy ground and the obvious six furlongs targets may also present the same problem. It is almost unheard of for the Prix Maurice de Gheest to be run on anything but slow ground because of France Galop’s watering policy but he should be alright if it does not rain. The Haydock Sprint Cup is the obvious domestic target but by September it is usually soft up in the North West and we know what happened on Champions’ Day last year. I think they need to put their hands in their pockets and shell out for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Del Mar.
