Gear Up has form on soft but he was poor last time out. I fancied him that day and was bitterly disappointed. Mark Johnston said he would always improve from the Dante over the full Derby trip. Dubai Fountain was all the rage from 12/1 on Wednesday, into 4/1 today and she ran like a drain. so I am not sure the money for Gear Up means much. I did consider him the other day as Group 1 winner sitting at 66/1 but couldn't pull the trigger because of the trainer's poor record in the Classics. Perhaps O'Brien will rue pulling all the other's out. High Definition certainly doesn't do things quickly and might have relished the stamina test. It doesn't seem to matter how badly some of those Ballydoyle runners fare, the trainer keeps bobbing up with winners, while the British trainers can't seem to even get a runner these days.
Just the twelve to face that starter for the Derby, yet only a week ago it was claimed that Ballydoyle was going to run seven or eight. The favourite can at least lay a form claim to his position at the head of the market, having put up the most visually impressive performances en route to Surrey. It is difficult to think of any real reason why Ryan Moore would not have chosen Bolshoi Ballet. The fact that Aidan O’Brien is not running seven or eight indicates a level of confidence in the one that is here. The winter ante post favourite High Definition is absent so Moore cannot have picked the wrong one! Godolphin come into the race with three runners, the pick of which appears to be unbeaten Dante winner Hurricane Lane, who should have no problem with the step up to twelve furlongs. The same cannot be said for stablemate One Ruler, yet to race beyond a mile and from a female line that never went beyond ten furlongs. Adayar should have no problem with the trip or the track but he was completely outgunned by Third Realm in the Lingfield Derby Trial; and Roger Varian’s colt looks a live candidate at decent odds. The trip should be okay for Gear Up but he was five and a half lengths behind Hurricane Lane at York and there seems no reason to believe he will reverse that running. Hopefully connections of the maiden Mojo Star enjoy their day at Epsom because it has no realistic chance and you have to dig in the pedigree to find any evidence he will stay. Friday’s rain was welcome news for Mac Swiney, who comes in top of the official ratings and the only real survivor of the winter ante post market after winning the Futurity at Doncaster, where he beat One Ruler. He was well beaten by Bolshoi Ballet in the Derrinstown before beating his stablemate, the 2000 Guineas winner Poetic Flare, in the Irish equivalent. It would be some training performance to win this given the form with the favourite and he is not guaranteed to stay. Also well beaten in the Derrinstown was Southern Lights and it would be a major upset if he featured here. Youth Spirit won the Chester Vase after running fourth in the Feilden but the Roodeye form does not look great given the way that the fancied runners underperformed but he has earned his opportunity to give sire Camelot a first Derby winner. Frankel has four sons trying to win him his first Derby today and the exciting Mohaafeth won the four runner Newmarket Stakes easily and should have no problem with the extra two furlongs but none of his three wins have been on easy ground, on which he was a beaten favourite last year. The last of Frankel’s sons is John Leeper, who is partnered by Frankie looking for a Classic double. His dam Snow Fairy won the Oaks so there is no stamina doubt but he comes here off the back of a workmanlike win in a five runner Listed race, which is hardly a conventional route to Epsom; however, he would be the fairytale story of the race for the Dunlop family being named after the trainer’s father JL Dunlop, trainer of two Derby winners. If I were forced to have a bet, I would go with Third Realm at decent odds over Hurricane Lane giving Frankel a first Derby; however, the form clearly points to the favourite Bolshoi Ballet and that is emphasised by his powerful stable running only one horse.
As the 3yo colts look an abysmal lot that was a great result for Adam Kirby. Rode a patient race and absolutely flayed them.
I suspect a 115 horse has won this year's Derby but no doubt the assessors will try to justify something nearer 120. Plenty didn't look like they stayed today. Hurricane Lane ran a respectable race but always looked like he was under the pump more than you would want to see in order to hold his position. I wonder where Bolshoi Ballet goes next? The vet reported that he had been struck into on his right hind early in the race but it was also noted that runner up Mojo Star had been struck into on his left fore. Meanwhile the vet reported that Hurricane Lane had lost BOTH fore shoes during the race. I suspect this is not a Derby that is going to stack up.
With Adayar emerging from stall 1 that’s one stat blown out of the water… Meanwhile, I’ve just re-read ‘The Weekender’s’ Derby preview (published Wednesday). They mention 16 horses…but not the eventual winner. That is some feat!
My son is a groom rider at Richard Hannon's yard and he was surprised by performance of Mojo Star to finish second.
The winner was backable, all you can ask for in a Group 1, Third Realm got first run on him at Lingfield. I suspect 1 or 2 of Obriens would have been involved in the finish if he had thrown them all at it.
Winner backed from 40/1 into 16/1 a few minutes prior to the off. Someone on about Varian putting the punter away, the same could apply to this one. Another classic Derby? Eur kidding me.
Immediately after the Derby, I had decided that Hurricane Lane was going to be the St Leger favourite because he is clearly a horse that is just a galloper; so the extra distance would be to his advantage and he would take one of the well worn paths to Town Moor. Of course then Charlie Appleby was interviewed about the Derby and revealed that they thought the winner Adayar was going to be their St Leger horse. Perhaps that might still turn out to be the case but I expect he will be more likely to take the type of route that a Derby winner follows possibly involving the Irish Derby and the King George. So would I touch Adayar at 4/1 or Hurricane Lane at 12/1 for the St Leger? If I were desperate for an ante post bet, I might do the latter thinking if the former turns out to be good he will go to Longchamp. The initial impression is that this was not a great race. The maiden Mojo Star running second could well be a rapidly improving animal but I thought the fourth Mac Swiney and the sixth One Ruler were ridden like non-stayers and were indeed non stayers; and the fifth Third Realm ran past beaten horses so it is hard to find a potential yardstick. The favourite had the run of the race and coming around Tattenham Corner I was expecting Ryan to kick on once they had straightened up but he folded tamely.
The jockeys that rode winners said on interview that the ground was good to soft. It was not! It took Haggas, on explaining the withdrawal of Mohaafeth, to come up with a true definition of the going which he described as Dead. There in no resilience in dead ground, and it is no surprise that two horses lost shoes during the race. Was it Haggas description of the ground that caused a late plunge on the winner? Stamina is vital on dead ground, and Appleby described Adayar as his Ledger horse. Bolshoi Ballet had an excuse for his display in that he received a horrible gash to his hind leg which was shown on ATR, and, like most of the field he was inconvenienced by the surface. This race should be taken with a large pinch of salt, and on a decent surface the beaten horses will, no doubt show their true ability.
Not sure the times or visuals would suggest that it was dead ground. It seems like they made an excuse for pulling the horse out. Times of the previous winners Time (secs) Going Official Going Horse 151.3300018 Good To Firm Good To Firm Workforce 152.3200073 Good Good To Firm Golden Horn 153.0200043 Good Good Wings Of Eagles 153.2700043 Good To Firm Good To Firm Galileo 153.3500061 Good To Firm Good Kris Kin 153.3800049 Firm Good To Firm Anthony Van Dyck 153.6300049 Good Good Australia 153.7200012 Good Good North Light 153.8999939 Good Good To Firm Camelot 154.4299927 Good Good Serpentine 154.5399933 Good Good To Firm Pour Moi 154.7700043 Good Good Authorized 154.9299927 Good Good Masar 155.2299957 Good Good To Firm Sir Percy 155.6900024 Good Good Motivator 156.5 Good Good New Approach 156.7400055 Good Good Sea The Stars 156.75 Good Good Sinndar 159.0599976 Good Good Ruler Of The World 159.4499969 Good To Soft Good To Soft High Chaparral 160.0899963 Good To Soft Good To Soft Harzand The time on Saturday was 156.85 which put it in between Sinndar and Ruler Of The World's times, which suggests that the ground was probably as advertised.
Oh Dear, James Willoughby has got carried away:- "Simply explained, Adayar won the Derby because his pedigree had bestowed him having better athletic tools than all the rest. He looked like the kid who captains the school team at rugby, cricket and football. He was bigger, stronger and, yes, faster than the others. He beat them hollow before even getting to the strongest part of his game. The signature moment was this: three furlongs out, Adayar lifted those hefty shoulders and smashed open a gap that was there because he made it. Frankel size, Frankel stride, awesome Frankel power." Missed his vocation, should have been an estate agent or political speech writer. There was zero in common with Frankel in this year's Derby.