Looks like a downward trend to me here PS over the past 6 years. League position, points total, lower GD, lower wins percentages are all lower Not sure which other metric you would like.
My measure was a rolling 6 years though. Random noise affects points by at least plus or minus 7 every year which can have a big effect on league position. So i chose to smooth that by combining years.
I’d say we’re definitely on a downtrend and that won’t really stop whilst we have players like Aurier, Dier, Toby, Sanchez, Winks, Sissoko and Lamela here, along with if we make further poor signings like Ndombele and Lo Celso. The squad is the poorest it’s looked since AVB/ Tim’s season and two top managers have struggled getting anything out of it since the beginning of 2019. Often relying on individual brilliance from a very small handful of players. Partly why I don’t envy whoever the new manager will be because alongside Levy they’ve got a massive task ahead, which’ll be made a lot tougher if Kane does go. Though I’m hoping whoever does come in relishes a proper challenge.
oh i see what you mean by rolling 6 years. I'm not sure that's a good measure at all. Football has never been 6 year seasons since forever. When is the last time a team has stayed together for 6 years let alone a single manager. Hell you'd find it hard pushed to find a player sticking around for 6 years. Typically you will get around 4 years so if you want to be doing rolling average periods than i think you'd be better off using that point.
I'm trying to measure the performance of an owner with a long term plan though. Not a manager or a player.
It really isn't as simple as that. You're making a common error in statistics. Biased selection of data. If you choose to start at the highest finish in 60 years then it's very likely that the next few points will be lower. ENIC have been in place for 20 years....why throw away 15 data points to define the trend? It's completely inevitable that there will be ups and downs.
The six years rolling is fairly abitrary but the whole period of the plot isn't because that's based on when ENIC took over. And the trend line doesn't depend on how you combine years. Over the ENIC period the trend is up and that is a fact. Over the 20 years prior to ENIC the trend was down. Looking at the data over much shorter periods doesn't tell you much at all, because the signal is lost in the noise.
Along with a bunch of players from this list, though none of the ones at the top: https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/gestifute/beraterfirma/berater/413
only when looking at the 6 year rolling average. it's also a fact looking at a 2 year rolling every ENIC is down. the debate is what rolling average to use and as you have stated, the 6 year one is rather abitrary. It seems odd that the ownership rolling average should be 6 years when teams and managers aren't. If we were to use 6 years as a rolling average, clubs should be prepared to give owners 12 years of ownership before knowing an up or down trend which seems overly excessive hell based on that theory, you never gave alan sugar a proper chance as he only had 10 years and didn't get the full 12 years to decide whether he was successful or not
UK accounts of large ltd companies always do "5 yr rolling" (the current year + 4 yrs prior) on various primary measures. In the above vein, here are the stats on league positions of Spurs during the ENIC era : 2000–01 P = 12 MP = 11.4 2001–02 P = 9 MP = 11.2 2002–03 P = 10 MP = 10.4 2003–04 P = 14 MP = 11 2004–05 P = 9 MP = 10.8 2005–06 P = 5 MP = 9.4 2006–07 P = 5 MP = 8.6 2007–08 P = 11 MP = 8.8 2008–09 P = 8 MP = 7.6 2009–10 P = 4 MP = 6.6 2010–11 P = 5 MP = 6.6 2011–12 P = 4 MP = 6.4 2012–13 P = 5 MP = 5.2 2013–14 P = 6 MP = 4.8 2014–15 P = 5 MP = 5 2015–16 P = 3 MP = 4.6 2016–17 P = 2 MP = 4.2 2017–18 P = 3 MP = 3.8 2018–19 P = 4 MP = 3.4 2019–20 P = 6 MP = 3.6 2020–21 P = 7 MP = 4.4 Interesting that the 2018-19 season seems to be the zenith of the Pochettino era in terms of mean league placing (a symmetric distribution with the median being that year) .
Can’t help but feel that it’s crunch time for Levy now, in terms of the manager appointment. It looks like we’re pushing to get Poch back, which I have mixed feelings about, but if that falls through Levy could be left high and dry. If Ancelotti goes to Madrid and Everton take Ten Hag instead of Nuno, then who’s left that we would actually want? Potter? And the longer this goes on, the harder it will be to get managers out of clubs. Really Levy needs this wrapped up by the end of the week so the new manager can have a few days to phone round the squad, review the tapes, and get a feel for who he wants to keep and sell ahead of the transfer window opening June 9th.
It’s not biased, it’s just the last few years are more relevant than what happened from 2001-2016. This squad is on a downwards trajectory and that’s clear to see.
