1. Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!

Thomas Frank & Johan Lange (& Fabio Paratici) Watch

Discussion in 'Tottenham Hotspur' started by Dier Hard, Apr 19, 2021.

?

Your Preference For Ange’s Replacement

  1. Thomas Frank

  2. Andoni Iraola

  3. Simone Inzaghi

  4. Marco Silva

  5. Roberto Di Zerbi

  6. Other (state in comments)

  7. Oliver Glasner

  8. Xavi

  9. Mauricio Pochettino

Multiple votes are allowed.
Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. BobbyD

    BobbyD President

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2013
    Messages:
    22,103
    Likes Received:
    17,945
    Looks like a downward trend to me here PS over the past 6 years.

    upload_2021-6-1_9-48-0.png

    League position, points total, lower GD, lower wins percentages are all lower

    Not sure which other metric you would like.
     

    Attached Files:

    #1341
    Billy The Spur and KingHotspur like this.
  2. PowerSpurs

    PowerSpurs Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2011
    Messages:
    13,086
    Likes Received:
    5,667
    My measure was a rolling 6 years though. Random noise affects points by at least plus or minus 7 every year which can have a big effect on league position. So i chose to smooth that by combining years.
     
    #1342
  3. Dier Hard

    Dier Hard G'day mate!

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2011
    Messages:
    41,080
    Likes Received:
    48,308
    I’d say we’re definitely on a downtrend and that won’t really stop whilst we have players like Aurier, Dier, Toby, Sanchez, Winks, Sissoko and Lamela here, along with if we make further poor signings like Ndombele and Lo Celso.

    The squad is the poorest it’s looked since AVB/ Tim’s season and two top managers have struggled getting anything out of it since the beginning of 2019. Often relying on individual brilliance from a very small handful of players.

    Partly why I don’t envy whoever the new manager will be because alongside Levy they’ve got a massive task ahead, which’ll be made a lot tougher if Kane does go. Though I’m hoping whoever does come in relishes a proper challenge.
     
    #1343
  4. KingHotspur

    KingHotspur Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 11, 2011
    Messages:
    25,216
    Likes Received:
    31,442
    2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th.

    That is definitely a downward trend and that’s a fact.
     
    #1344
    Billy The Spur likes this.
  5. BobbyD

    BobbyD President

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2013
    Messages:
    22,103
    Likes Received:
    17,945
    oh i see what you mean by rolling 6 years. I'm not sure that's a good measure at all. Football has never been 6 year seasons since forever. When is the last time a team has stayed together for 6 years let alone a single manager. Hell you'd find it hard pushed to find a player sticking around for 6 years. Typically you will get around 4 years so if you want to be doing rolling average periods than i think you'd be better off using that point.
     
    #1345
  6. PowerSpurs

    PowerSpurs Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2011
    Messages:
    13,086
    Likes Received:
    5,667
    I'm trying to measure the performance of an owner with a long term plan though. Not a manager or a player.
     
    #1346

  7. PowerSpurs

    PowerSpurs Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2011
    Messages:
    13,086
    Likes Received:
    5,667
    It really isn't as simple as that. You're making a common error in statistics. Biased selection of data. If you choose to start at the highest finish in 60 years then it's very likely that the next few points will be lower. ENIC have been in place for 20 years....why throw away 15 data points to define the trend?
    It's completely inevitable that there will be ups and downs.
     
    #1347
  8. BobbyD

    BobbyD President

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2013
    Messages:
    22,103
    Likes Received:
    17,945
    sounds like selective period picking to me :p
     
    #1348
  9. PowerSpurs

    PowerSpurs Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2011
    Messages:
    13,086
    Likes Received:
    5,667
    The six years rolling is fairly abitrary but the whole period of the plot isn't because that's based on when ENIC took over. And the trend line doesn't depend on how you combine years. Over the ENIC period the trend is up and that is a fact. Over the 20 years prior to ENIC the trend was down. Looking at the data over much shorter periods doesn't tell you much at all, because the signal is lost in the noise.
     
    #1349
  10. Dier Hard

    Dier Hard G'day mate!

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2011
    Messages:
    41,080
    Likes Received:
    48,308
    Ancelotti rumoured to be taking over at Madrid.
     
    #1350
  11. humanbeingincroydon

    humanbeingincroydon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 28, 2011
    Messages:
    69,805
    Likes Received:
    30,591
    Anyone get the feeling Nuno is headed to Goodison?
     
    #1351
    remembercolinlee likes this.
  12. Dier Hard

    Dier Hard G'day mate!

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2011
    Messages:
    41,080
    Likes Received:
    48,308
    Good shout that. Could see that happening if Carlo does go and sun it up in Madrid.
     
    #1352
    remembercolinlee likes this.
  13. PleaseNotPoll

    PleaseNotPoll Well-Known Member Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    May 31, 2011
    Messages:
    96,286
    Likes Received:
    55,774
    #1353
    humanbeingincroydon likes this.
  14. BobbyD

    BobbyD President

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2013
    Messages:
    22,103
    Likes Received:
    17,945
    only when looking at the 6 year rolling average.

    it's also a fact looking at a 2 year rolling every ENIC is down.

    the debate is what rolling average to use and as you have stated, the 6 year one is rather abitrary.

    It seems odd that the ownership rolling average should be 6 years when teams and managers aren't.

    If we were to use 6 years as a rolling average, clubs should be prepared to give owners 12 years of ownership before knowing an up or down trend which seems overly excessive

    hell based on that theory, you never gave alan sugar a proper chance as he only had 10 years and didn't get the full 12 years to decide whether he was successful or not
     
    #1354
  15. BobbyD

    BobbyD President

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2013
    Messages:
    22,103
    Likes Received:
    17,945
    for anyone interested in PS 6 year rolling average

    upload_2021-6-1_13-5-32.png
     
    #1355
  16. PowerSpurs

    PowerSpurs Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2011
    Messages:
    13,086
    Likes Received:
    5,667
    The trend is from all the data so is nearly independent of whether you average it or not.
     
    #1356
  17. Dier Hard

    Dier Hard G'day mate!

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2011
    Messages:
    41,080
    Likes Received:
    48,308
    Bob breaking out the excel spreadsheets. You know ****'s getting serious!
     
    #1357
  18. The RDBD

    The RDBD Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    29,108
    Likes Received:
    13,896
    UK accounts of large ltd companies always do "5 yr rolling"
    (the current year + 4 yrs prior) on various primary measures.

    In the above vein, here are the stats on league positions of
    Spurs during the ENIC era :

    2000–01 P = 12 MP = 11.4
    2001–02 P = 9 MP = 11.2
    2002–03 P = 10 MP = 10.4
    2003–04 P = 14 MP = 11
    2004–05 P = 9 MP = 10.8
    2005–06 P = 5 MP = 9.4
    2006–07 P = 5 MP = 8.6
    2007–08 P = 11 MP = 8.8
    2008–09 P = 8 MP = 7.6
    2009–10 P = 4 MP = 6.6
    2010–11 P = 5 MP = 6.6
    2011–12 P = 4 MP = 6.4
    2012–13 P = 5 MP = 5.2
    2013–14 P = 6 MP = 4.8
    2014–15 P = 5 MP = 5
    2015–16 P = 3 MP = 4.6
    2016–17 P = 2 MP = 4.2
    2017–18 P = 3 MP = 3.8
    2018–19 P = 4 MP = 3.4
    2019–20 P = 6 MP = 3.6
    2020–21 P = 7 MP = 4.4


    Interesting that the 2018-19 season seems to be the zenith of the
    Pochettino era in terms of mean league placing (a symmetric
    distribution with the median being that year) .
     
    #1358
    BobbyD likes this.
  19. The Huddlefro

    The Huddlefro Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 31, 2011
    Messages:
    8,117
    Likes Received:
    6,555
    Can’t help but feel that it’s crunch time for Levy now, in terms of the manager appointment. It looks like we’re pushing to get Poch back, which I have mixed feelings about, but if that falls through Levy could be left high and dry. If Ancelotti goes to Madrid and Everton take Ten Hag instead of Nuno, then who’s left that we would actually want? Potter? And the longer this goes on, the harder it will be to get managers out of clubs.

    Really Levy needs this wrapped up by the end of the week so the new manager can have a few days to phone round the squad, review the tapes, and get a feel for who he wants to keep and sell ahead of the transfer window opening June 9th.
     
    #1359
    Billy The Spur likes this.
  20. KingHotspur

    KingHotspur Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 11, 2011
    Messages:
    25,216
    Likes Received:
    31,442
    It’s not biased, it’s just the last few years are more relevant than what happened from 2001-2016. This squad is on a downwards trajectory and that’s clear to see.
     
    #1360
    Billy The Spur likes this.

Share This Page