To me there's too many variables every time a horse runs for the ratings to mean anything. Its all based on the opinions of the people who decide them.
The official handicappers ratings are subjective of which ever handicapper judges the race. To handicap any race you need to find out what the "par" effort in the race was, and that is subjective. Take any race today (go on) and tell me which horse ran to its handicap mark and why? Then lets see what the handicapper thinks next week, and then which horse the RPR is rated around. All ratings are subjective, be it a subjective decision on the "par" horse or the true state of the ground or the pace of a race.
connections and prestige of race also involved, High Definition will likely prove to be capable of 115 but there is no case for the rating in any of his 3 runs, youd expect him to run to that level when getting a proper gallop at 12f+ but we havent seen it yet I said the same about Armorys 110 rating early in his 2yo career, given the races he was running in and the connections history in those races, it was likely he was going to be a 110 2yo, but you couldnt really justify it on paper at the time and handicappers were projecting, as they are with high definition
Timeform ratings are very mathematical; the accompanying comments are observations. No idea how Official ratings are determined but I see a lot of adding and subtracting based on distances beaten/won by and weights
I wouldn't put anyone off if they fancied the filly on the day at 16/1. From my point of view there has to be fair chance that she misses the race though. I can't imagine William Haggas would rush her to the Oaks after a disappointing run and there are other targets later in the season that may suit her better. In these circumstances I feel she is a risky proposition and the 16/1 odds don't take account of that factor. My view on ratings is that there is no point in taking them literally when there is only a few pounds here or there but if a horse has a lot to find on the figures, even allowing for margin of error/subjectivity, it can be folly to ignore the ratings. For me the ratings have greater value if based on several runs. Obviously if a horse has run only once or twice, we are all guessing to a large extent but I would rather have an experienced assessors best guess, than have nothing to go on at all. Pretty Gorgeous seems to be out of the Epsom Oaks and is running in the Irish Guineas this Sunday. I will be disappointed if she can't beat Joan Of Arc. I feel if she has trained on she will win. Plenty of good performers from last season's Fillies Mile and Joseph was said to be excited about her for this season despite the bad scope that saw her miss the Newmarket Guineas. I'll see what price she is on Sunday but have had a dabble on Pretty Gorgeous for the Coronation Stakes. I think 7/1 could prove a big price. Coronation Stakes Pretty Gorgeous 7/1
I liked the way Twisted Reality finished her race off when 4th at Newbury, and will be better when going up to 12 furlongs Each Way @ 25-1
Varian going for the hood that the dam Ambivalent used to wear. Supposedly worked extremely well in it today but we knew from the betting that she shows plenty on the gallops. Shes clearly one of the most talented horses in the race but the hood will need to perform a miracle as Epsom pre race is likely to test her mentally far more than York and she all but lost the plot there, whatever happens in this race I think we are looking at a future G2 winner at least and possibly a G1 winner. please log in to view this image
Saffron Beach is now an intended runner, the form of the 1000 Guineas does not look strong after the French and Irish versions - Mother Earth beaten by a 40/1 shot in France and Fev Rover beaten 7L in Ireland, it didnt look strong before them either in fairness. Wrong race for her imo but given the lack of proven quality in the race I can see why they are having a go in the hope that she improves for the trip as shes probably not good enough to win in the G1 mile division based on the Guineas form.
As I expected, William Haggas has pulled Sea Empress from the Oaks. It seemed sensible to give her more time and she has an entry in a Class 4 Novice at Chelmsford on 3rd June. She still holds Group 1 entries later but for now needs to get back on track. 15 fillies still in the Oaks at the moment and Aidan O'Brien has five of those. Roger Varian has three in the mix, with David Egan taking over from Andrea Atzeni on Teona. This looks a weak renewal of the Oaks. Saffron Beach brings Guineas form, which is always of a certain quality at least but she just didn't look at all like a filly crying out for another half mile and there must surely be the consideration that Saffron Beach could have lifted the Irish 1000 Guineas had she been aimed there. Santa Barbara is still largely a reputation filly and like Saffron Beach is taking a big step up in trip in a hurry. I'll just stick with Noon Star at the 33/1 I took and hope she lines up. No great expectation at all but just a faint hope that the full mile and a half will suit. Teona is the other to consider but both have a good bit to find with Snowfall.
Very happy to see David Egan on Teona, Atzeni has been a bogey jockey for me over the years, dont remember him ever doing me a decent turn and he didnt handle Teona well at York, hes not a top jockey for me despite other jockeys raving about him. Egan is an up and comer who has already done it at high level internationally and this is a huge weekend for him, hopefully he keeps the mount on Third Realm in the Derby as thats the one I settled on and I dont want Atzeni jumping on to it. If Egan gets Teona and Third Realm youve got to assume he is now the main jockey for Varian.
I backed Twisted Reality last time out because I wanted to oppose Sea Empress. In the end both fillies were a bit disappointing. Sea Empress drops to Class 4 Novice company on Thursday and has plenty in hand on Racing Post figures but she does face a couple of Gosden newcomers. Future is perhaps the stable No 1 with Andrea Atzeni booked. She is a half sister to Latrobe and Pink Dogwood, who were both out of Camelot but Future is by Galileo. Flaunt is also there for the Gosdens and she is by Frankel, while Frankel is also the sire of the Michael Stoute trained Swoon. Might just be something in the mix to worry Sea Empress if she doesn't fire at likely short odds.
Noon Star is out of the Oaks due to a blood disorder, given how quick that can clear up if High Definition is anything to go by, got to think she will now go for the Ribblesdale at Ascot. Unibet have cut her from 12s to 6s for that, Paddies and SkyBet top price at 10/1.
She probably won't stay and will end up coming back to 10F or even a mile but Saffron Beach is a really interesting runner. She has neither a flashy pedigree nor flashy connections but has finished a closed second in both the Nell Gwynn and 1000 Guineas. She is by French Derby winner New Bay (who placed 3rd in Golden Horn's Arc) and is already his highest-earning progeny. Her dam is really nothing to write home about but you can't argue with what Saffron Beach has done on the track and, in an open looking year, she might be able to upstage the fancy-bred fillies. The 12/1 being dangled by Hills feels a bit skinny and I might look at her price on the day to see where she sits.
Not been my year for last minute dirty scopes and blood disorders. You couldn't make it up. I highly doubt she would have won anyway and the ground was likely to be too fast for her as well. It leaves the race even more weak looking. Still, not much money lost at all at 40/1 and 33/1 on my two picks and room for another play. I just don't know if I can bring myself to back one.
I would be keen to find something to beat the fav but I'm struggling. I fancied Indigo Girl but she isn't running and Gosden hasn't got anything else in the race. So I think I'll have to go for a place with Dubai Fountain who has close form with Indigo Girl. Saffron Beach was my 1,000 Gns pick but I didn't see her as a 12f filly. However, given the openness of the race and the ground possibly being on the fast side, who knows?
