Takeover (Covid-19/20)

This. And we are nearly safe. But not mathematically safe. And basically under the laws of probability we are more or less close to be actually factually nearly safe.

 

Arithmetically not safe
Probability safe

 

Saying we're probably safe is different to saying we're safe.

 

Speak to a judge

 

That's a strange argument

 

Actually it isn't. Saying we are safe is saying we are probably safe but where the probability equals 1.

 

Based on what

 

Based on a scale of 0 to 1.

We are probably safe but with a probability of 0 = we are not safe
We are probably safe with a probability of 0.5 = we might be safe or we might not
We are probably safe with a probability of 1 = we are safe

I would say our probability of being safe is currently at about 0.87 but if we get a point today it will increase to 0.91.

 

Wheres the theory.. You've just plucked these figures out the sky

 

Yes he's plucked up 0 for impossible, 0.5 for fifty fifty/even chance and 1 for certain all out of thin air

 

You're both talking ****e

We're not mathematically safe and that's that

 

Wait until you hear that i X i = -1

 

I ran a Monte Carlo simulation using every combination of results to the end of the season and came up with a probability distribution curve. The probability values quoted mark the values at the maximum point of the distribution curve.

 

I give us an 92.85% probability that we are safe pre the Arsenal Match.

 

Takeover news? Nope, just 2 pages of maths ffs.

 

I will have to recheck my calculations. Did you allow for the probability of Bruce picking both Shelvey and Joelinton against Arsenal as I also included this.

 

I did and the potential for Ritchie in and Miggy out.

 

The probability of us both talking ****e is around 0.25, the probability of one of us talking ****e is 0.5. The probability that neither of us is talking ****e is 0.75. Make of that what you will.