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Daily Racing Thread Friday 23rd. April 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Apr 22, 2021.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    #1
  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I will be interested to see the relative times of the G3 Classic Trial and the Fillies' Novice Stakes

    We Have Gosdens' Trawlerman in the former and one of his unraced beautifully bred fillies (Galileo - Kind (Danehill)) in the latter, Chiasma, who doesn't hold an entry in the Oaks (as yet)
     
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  3. LG

    LG Well-Known Member

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    I’ve had a bet on Trawlerman, I’d love it if Chiasma wins cosily
     
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  4. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Small stakes only tomorrow on YESSIRICANBOOGIE 50/1 Perth 5:20
    Picked this one out on pedigree and was very surprised when I saw the price. The yard is on a very long losing run in bumpers so that may be part of it. This lady is related to winners under both codes and gets a very healthy age and sex allowance.
    I do like horses in the Worcester races but they are too short to worth mentioning.
     
    #4
  5. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Chiasma is therefore a full sister to Frankel in case anyone hadn't noticed
     
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  6. PNkt

    PNkt Well-Known Member

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    Fingers crossed she turns out to be at least half-decent, though she’s priceless already. The only full-sister and one of only 2 fillies produced by Kind.
     
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  7. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    She being Joyeuse (by Oasis Dream) who, unfortunately, didn't set the World alight and raced almost exclusively at 6-7f
     
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  8. PNkt

    PNkt Well-Known Member

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    She did earn her black-type though (Listed winner, G3 placed) and is doing her bit for the family by producing 2 black-type horses (placed, not winners granted) from 3 runners to date.
     
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  9. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    In Trawlerman's race this is what Timeform's Adam Houghton has to say

    Lone Eagle – 15:35 Sandown, Friday

    Lone Eagle showed useful form to win three of his four starts as a two-year-old, culminating with an authoritative victory in the Zetland Stakes at Newmarket. That Group 3 was run at a sound gallop and became a thorough test for juveniles, with the first two both showing much improved form for the increased emphasis on stamina. Lone Eagle was never far away and found plenty when challenged by Recovery Run over a furlong out, keeping going well to beat that rival by a length and three quarters. Lone Eagle earned a timefigure of 106 at Newmarket which reads very well in the context of this race – old rival Recovery Run (102) is next best but has work to do to reverse the form with Lone Eagle, while Trawlerman is the pick of the rest having earned a timefigure of 99 for his wide-margin success in a maiden at Pontefract recently. Admittedly, several of these are still unexposed and likely to prove capable of better than they have shown so far, but there is no doubt that Lone Eagle possesses the strongest credentials on both form and time. He has the physique (well-made colt) to make an even better three-year-old, too.
     
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  10. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Last year’s ante-post Derby horse and this year’s running on the same card at Sandown. Obviously last year’s never even made it to the race and contests the Gordon Richards. This year’s stab in the dark goes in the Classic Trial and could be out of contention by 3:40.

    The ratings suggest that the Gordon Richards should be very competitive with only 6lb covering six of the field; however, two strip race fit and Waldkonig opened his 2021 account in a five runner handicap with the minimum of fuss. He was something of a talking horse last term as was my Derby pick Highest Ground, who won when the pair met at Haydock. He ran like a drain in the Darley Stakes on soft ground after chasing home THUNDEROUS in the re-arranged Dante. That was the last time Mark Johnston’s charge saw a track but he has reportedly overcome his injury and I could see him trying to steal this if no-one else wants to go on. Old timer Desert Encounter is very hard to catch and I think that Hukum wants further than ten furlongs and this might be just a prep race for him.

    With just the quartet for the Mile, Palace Pier does not look like he is going to have much of a seasonal warm up.

    The Classic Trial has attracted a good sized field and clearly the bookies have their eye on my ‘Cazoo’ Derby pick, Yibir. Normally I look for something that has only had a couple of little races at the back end of the season but it took Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi colt three attempts to get off the mark at the expense of King Vega and then he followed up in the Haynes, Hanson & Clark – a race that often throws up a good one – and he comes out of a good mare in Rumh.

    I would not be backing Yibir today at the prices but obviously he needs to run well. The worry with Appleby’s other runner would be that Adayar is an unknown on anything but soft ground and the other Godolphin runner Trawlerman really only raced the clock to win a maiden on seasonal debut. Martyn Meade’s Lone Eagle improved with each outing as a juvenile running up a sequence ending with the Zetland Stakes (Recovery Run second), but is this now his minimum trip? Etonian was out with the washing in the Dewhurst on soft ground but won both his other races at this track, beating King Vega in the Solario in taking fashion. I wonder whether Sir Lucan is in the field simply as a yardstick from Ballydoyle with just a Cork maiden win from three starts. Belloccio is a curious one having won a Toulouse Listed race to remain unbeaten in two juvenile starts.
     
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  11. Ste D

    Ste D Well-Known Member

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    Kilbeggan 4.55. Toms Courage win 5/1.In good form of late and has fitness edge over the favorite.
     
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  12. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Interesting Sandown cards but disappointing numbers in some races. Hukum was a favourite of mine last year but I felt he was campaigned, most of the time, for his next race. His failure was in the St Leger that looked too far to me. So I'm hoping his first start at 10f will suit him. My concern is the form of Burrows' stable.
    So 3 longish shots for me today:-
    Buxted Too
    Hukum
    Alenquer

    EW of course
     
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  13. LordGyllene

    LordGyllene Well-Known Member

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    I like Lithic in the 2.40 at Perth. Without a win over fences but has run well for each way purposes more than one time in his career. Today is easier than at Cheltenham last time out. Cheekpieces back on and the O'Neil yard has a good record with handicap chasers at Perth over the last 5 seasons. Yard amongst the winners recently so worth a small each way bet.
     
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  14. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    I see ITV have scooped Leonna Major today for some punditry...apparently the world's sexiest ex jockey..:emoticon-0115-inlov

    Anyhoo on to the racing I fancy Rifleman in the first televised race here. Improved throughout last season I think he ll go close. Backed him earlier before the favourite withdrew...

    Good luck all! :emoticon-0167-beer:
     
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  15. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    I have no words....what the hell??? :emoticon-0145-shake
     
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  16. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    Late to the party - didn't realise there was televised racing - so .............. time after time :emoticon-0159-music I just had Cyclop, a panic push!

    Also gone with Tayzar at Perth (not televised) and Etonian :)
     
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  17. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I have been looking at the Sandown Classic Trial since betting became available. The race was hot at the turn of the 70's into the 80's with Troy, Henbit and Shergar winning it in 1979, 1980 and 1981 before going on to land the Derby itself. Some decent horses have won the race but in general it hasn't had much impact on the Derby going forward. Shahrastani was the last horse to win the trial and then win the Derby, in 1986 and even then he probably only did so because Greville Starkey started his run on Dancing Brave from a position that looked like the jockey was timing his finish for the 1987 Derby.

    John Gosden has an excellent record in this race and anything he sends has to command respect. This time his runner Trawlerman has an atypical profile for the trainer, in that he had three runs before shedding his maiden tag. He sluiced up last time to earn an official rating of 93. He has been described as a fast improving colt but he needs another stone today just to match some of the others in the race and that is not allowing for those opponents making improvement themselves from last season. I have to pass on Trawlerman in the circumstances of a better looking Classic Trial than is average. He has been backed but I think he is too short.

    Godophin have been mopping up some of the trial races recently and they have two colts here who were supplemented for the Derby at the second stage. Adayar and Yibir have both had positive mentions from jockey James Doyle but the betting suggests that the latter is the one for today. Looking at Godolphin's team of possibles for Epsom, Yibir stood out as a full brother to the top class filly Wild Illusion. I could see this colt going into single figures for the Derby if he wins nicely today but I am concerned that Wild Illusion did not seem to stay 12F. I think Yibir is the one to beat today but he's a bit short for a colt rated 100 on OR at the moment. His first couple of runs last season were on softer ground and he seemed to do better on good going in winning his next two. The ground should suit today.

    Aidan has been no factor in the trails in the UK and I have been swerving him since backing one of his who put up a lamentable show. Rightly or wrongly I put a pen through Sir Lucan and will continue to oppose the stable until I see some signs that he is actually sending his better horses across.

    The Zetland Stakes has become a better quality 2YO race in recent seasons. It is a 10F race that can be quite a test for young horses when the going is soft. It was generally a race that threw up winners who needed a good stamina test as 3YO and there is still a nag for me as to whether it will yield a Derby winner. Double Trigger, Double Eclipse and Trigger Happy all won the Zetland back in the day, while Kew Gardens went on to win the St Leger. Last season's wonner Lone Eagle has an improving profile and he is joined today by Zetland runner up Recovery Run. I feel that these colts will find 10F on quicker ground the bare minimum trip and perhaps they will be vulnerable to horses stepping up from a mile. Lone Eagle is top rated on official figures but I am concerned as to whether he will be fast enough. If he were to win today, he would surely have a shout in the Derby over the extra two furlongs.

    Irish Legend is 2/2 but needs to come on a ton from his 88 OR, he sits 22 lbs lower than Lone Eagle on the official handicap and he would be a shocking winner to my mind.

    Alenquer is the rank outsider today but I am not sure he should be. German bred, his now late sire is probably best known for Arc runner-up In Swoop. Trained by William Haggas the colt made a winning debut before finishing runner-up on his next start. That final race of his season was in Listed company where he was a shade over 3 lengths behind Fancy Man. It was enough to earn Alenquer an official rating of 100 and that is the same figure as today's favourite. Fancy Man was considered a Guineas colt by Richard Hannon but he fluffed his lines in the Feilden and ran a stone below his rating. That casts a shadow over the form of Alenquer but I don't think he deserves to be the outsider today.

    Belloccio is an interesting runner. He made his winning debut in a class 4 Novice race at Salisbury and on the form of that you would probably be looking at rating him in the 90's based on that effort. He went on to run on softer ground at Toulouse in a Listed race and stayed on strongly that day to win with a bit to spare. He looked quite a good physical specimen that day and seems sure to enjoy the 10F today. I think he might prefer it softer as a son of Belardo but feel he is under-rated in the betting today. His Listed win wasn't working out that great but runner up Cirona did win the Prix De La Grotte in a blanket finish of four fillies.

    I had a small bet on Etonian when the odds first became available. The Hannon colt thrashed One Ruler into second place on debut and that Appleby colt is now favourite for the 2000 Guineas. He won easily despite a stumble on his next start but going into the Dewhurst the vibes were bad and he was never involved. Others who ran that day, Chindit, Poetic Flare and Tactical have all bounced back since, so Etonian surely has a chance of doing the same. The second highest on official ratings, it seems like Etonian was never part of Hannon's Guineas plan andt hey must be confident he can get 10F but it is hard to imagine him as a Derby horse. The way he quickened past One Ruler on debut sticks in the mind and while I thought at the time that he might not have beaten much, it turns out that One Ruler was second in the Racing Post Trophy and now seems Appleby's leading 2YO colt.

    Conclusion:-

    I think Yibir is too short today, this looks a potential banana skin race but if he does win it he could be second fav for Epsom. Trawlerman also looks too skinny and owes his price to the trainer and his record in the race.

    Having backed Etonian at 10/1 early in the week I have also had a bet on Belloccio, because I was quite impressed with his last start. He looked a strong sort that day and hopefully he has come forward since.

    3.35 Sand Etonian 10/1 and Belloccio 12/1

    Since drafting this, Yibir has drifted and Trawlerman has been backed. I think it might be that Yibir just opened too short but it could be that there is little between him and the other Godolphin runner.
     
    #17
  18. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    Outstanding. What a shout with Alenquer and a 40/1 2nd with Buxted Too. Well done
     
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  19. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Nice EW and place double

    Sorry about Hukum (will come on a lot for that) .
     
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  20. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Sorry Smokey, should have left it to you.
     
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