Sorry for the size of this post!!
Tomorrow we have the Lincoln, the seasonal curtain opener for the flat, a handicap over the straight mile which has been won by some very talented horses and some incredibly well handicapped ones too!!
Tomorrow we have a full field of 22 due to go to post, so lets have a look at a few angles into the race.
Age is often a barrier
Four year olds have won the last four runnings of the race, and are ten wins from the last twenty runnings of the race. Interestingly you would expect that a large proportion of the field would be four year olds in those renewals to reach that number, however only the 2019 renewal in the last five runnings had a high percentage of four year olds (8 from 19 that ran).
Four year olds have also done well in the other places for the race, with the 2016 and 2017 renewals having four year olds in first and second place. The rest of the races have been won by five (5) and six (five) year olds in the last twenty runnings.
As such you can probably discount - Librissa Breeze, Scottish Summit, Born To Be Alive, Kynren & Graphite for being seven years old or older.
This years race entries is dominated by four year olds, with eleven set to take part, as such I think the majority of the study needs to be about these runners.
Profile of winners
I have looked at the number of runs, the age horses first raced, the number of runs in handicaps and the career win rate for the last four winners, all of which were four years old. This is interesting as it splits the winner profile quite neatly between regularly raced horses and those who have started their career later and are more unexposed.
In 2019 and 2018 we had two very impressive winners who were lightly raced, (4 runs and 6 runs) and had started racing as three year olds. In 2019 the winner had only raced in one handicap previously, whilst in 2018 the winner had raced in three handicaps. Both horses had won three races in their careers with strike rates of 75% and 50% respectively.
However the winners in 2017 and 2016 had both run over ten times (13 and 17) and had begun racing as two year olds. In 2017 the winner had only raced in two handicaps (raced in graded races) whilst in 2016 the winner had run in six handicaps. They had won a smaller proportion of their races (7% and 17%).
So you are either looking for a horse who has untapped potential and is potentially leniently treated (maybe started racing at 3) or a horse that is battle hardened and/or finally finding their feet in big field handicaps.
So this year that makes it very interesting. I would split the runners into -
Unexposed - Haqeeqy, Brentford Hope
Exposed - Johan, Dashing Roger, Ascension
with Brunch, Grove Ferry, River Nymph, Danyah,, Eastern World fitting towards the latter group (all run four or more times in handicaps)
Man Of The Night fits in between groups with eight runs but only three in handicaps and only one victory in his career (on debut)
Interestingly all of the four year olds started their careers at two.
So Haqeeqy and Brentford Hope are interesting on the unexposed angle, but they fall down on the next aspect.
The Draw
The Lincoln has been won by horses drawn 17,10,20,22,15,3 in the last six renewals, with second places of 22,9,2,2,6,22 and thirds of 14,11,21,18,19,20. Bearing in mind that the maximum field is 22, you are seeing lots of runners drawn in the top four stalls going on to win/place.
3 winners from 24 (6 races)
8 places from 24 (6 races)
Haqeeqy is drawn 10 and Brentford Hope is drawn 3. It looks like the draw is a negative for both on the last six runnings.
So to concentrate on those drawn high you would be looking at Dashing Roger (22), Man Of The Night (21) and Eastern World (19).
The selection for me is Man Of The Night, who ran a decent race at Wolverhampton on his return. This son of Kingman won very takingly on his juvenile debut, but he hasn't been found to be as good as the yard had hoped. He is lightly raced (8 runs) and importantly for me he has shown enough to suggest that he could improve further for fast raced mile + handicaps.
EW @ 16/1 - 5 places
The Brocklesby
the first big juvenile race of the season, and it interests me for the breeding industry aspect and the importance of siding with trainers who know how to ready a horse for the race.
Trainers
The race has multiple trainers who have won it in the last decade - Fahey (2019, 2017, 2010) Johnston (2016, 2015) Bill Turner (2013, 2011) with single wins for Channon, Carroll, Dixon and M Easterby in the timescale. As such I think its important to focus on runners from those yards and potentially the yards who are new to the game.
Richard Fahey has Vintage Clarets. Mick Channon has Wonderful World and then you've got trainers like George Boughey and William Stone too.
Age is still relevant
All of these are two year olds, so why should we look further than that? Well from the last eleven runnings we have had five winners foaled in February with a further three in March (1 in January and 2 April), so its important to have an early foal who has had more time to develop.
Vintage Clarets is a March (2/3/19) Foal
Wonderful World is an April (20/4/19) Foal
Others -
February - Kenyan Commander
March - Black Hill Storm, Graftonat
April - Makalu, Chipotle, Muskateer Three, Dashing Rat, Forca Brasil,
So on those dates you would be looking at Kenyan Commander and then Vintage Clarets, Black Hill Storm and Graftonat.
Kenyan Commander - Mark Walford is 4 from 49 with 2 year old runners in his career. This horse is by War Command (11% strike rate with juveniles) out of a five furlong winners. He is bred to be forward and he is an early foal. He however comes from a yard not renowned for early types and I think others will be stronger.
Black Hill Storm is another bred to be an early juvenile, being by Coldovil (12%) and is related to sprint winner. He is from David Evans' yard which is known for early types and they have to be respected. On jockey bookings though I would have him as the second choice for the yard and I think I prefer others.
Graftonat is the other David Evans runner, he is by Heeraat (6%) out of a mare who won as a two year old. She is ridden by Sean Levey who I assume is jocked up on the first string (much better jockey). I think this horse can be overlooked too on breeding.
That leaves Vintage Clarets who is by first season sire Ardad, who was a high class sprinter who won the Flying Childers as a juvenile. His grandsire is Kodiac (13%) who has had high class juveniles and is a respected sire of early juveniles. Vintage Clarets is half brother to Morache Music and Never Lose who are both good horses in context of this race and Vintage Clouds is probably by a better sire (Sleeping Indian/Diktat for the others).
Therefore this race is all about Vintage Clarets for me and I am shocked that he isn't the market leader.
Win @ 10/3 (William Hill) and at Betfair Exchange SP
