I have been on a few UK holidays with an elderly friend (yes, even elderly by my standard ) and can agree with you. I am astonished by how lovely our country (countries) are and so restful....no busy airports, less worry about connections, no food problems (not an issue for the young, but can be for older people)....and you know how everything works. I understand that some of these 'problems' are part of the fun for some, but UK holidays are worth considering. The drawback is likely to be that everyone will think the same.
And I am sure in one the briefings that when Chris Witty and professor Vallance were asked about the SA variant ....they both said the AZ would work. And yes I agree....if it were true France would most definitely be shouting about it from the rooftops.
UK holiday prices are already going up, thankfully our UK holiday this year was one deferred from last year....so already paid.
I will probably take the opportunity to go and walk a few hundred miles more of the south west coast path. Probably not in November this time when it's getting cold and daylight hours are much reduced!
It is extremely concerning because it was clear from the interview that the South African variant is anticipated to eventually arrive in the UK. We are very unlikely to keep it in abeyance. The scientist who was interviewed was adamant about foreign travel needing to be ruled out for anything other than essential business. He did not rule out further lockdowns and the inability of the current vaccines to tackle the South African variant and any potential further mutations from this were raised as very serious concerns as this meant that we are likely to find ourselves in the same position in the autumn as we were last year. The scientist was suggesting 10% efficacy for the Astrazeneca vaccine with tests still being conducted in the lab for the others. He felt that because they were designed to combat the earliest strains, all the current vaccines are unlikely to cope with the South African variant. I see that The Times had reported some of these facts this morning but the comment which was underlined on the radio last night was that the UK is effectively in a position of false security and that Boris's comments about having the problem under control has long since been recognised by the scientific community as having little basis in fact. The population is protected from the original strain and the Kent variant but a new vaccine will need to be developed for the South African variant as it is not a case of simply tweaking what we have available. What is happening in Europe at the moment is largely a consequence of the Kent variant although the SOuth African variant was stated as being 10-15% prevalent in France. In my opinion, if this proves to be correct, I do not think that we will be talking about foreign travel being banned, It was stressed that the Covid is likely to be a seasonal thing running through autumn and the winter with a new vaccine produced each year as it the case with flu. I think we will have a "window" of relaxation in the summer but expect that cases are going to get more serious from August onwards. Regarding holidays, I think that ultimately travel will be restricted within the UK too and people advised to stay local to avoid the kind of fiasco that happened in Bournemouth last year. I cannot see much change from 2020 if these vaccines are as ineffective as the lab resolves suggest.
Richie This is why I was surprised about this but medical journals reported this on Tuesday 16th March so that the efficacy capabilities of the AZ vaccine are now known to have been incorrect. AstraZeneca vaccine ineffective against South Africa variant | Seeking Alpha
Agreed, Europe aren’t looking great with regards to their vaccine roll out, but they are streets ahead with regards to the death count, which still puts their handling of the pandemic as better than ours. Two investigative journalists have spent time talking to 100s of people across the whole spectrum, including cabinet ministers and others with inside information, and released a book called Failures of State, in which a Downing Street political adviser even claims that “Johnson didn’t seem to give a ****”, something I think most intelligent people picked up on when listening to him speak about “letting it run” etc. It also claims that lawyers think that the government could be charged with the “criminal offence of gross negligence manslaughter”. This is on top of the lawyers that expect civil actions of negligence to be taken against the government. It is good that we have vaccines and that the rolling out has been left with the NHS, but there are still questions being raised about the gap between the first and second jab, with regards to the Pfizer vaccine. As I commented a few days ago, Kings College London think that the efficacy of the Pfizer, in cancer patients, is just 39%, with it only increasing to 45% if the second is given 5 weeks later, meaning that some of the most vulnerable people are not being fully protected, as a direct result of a decision made to ignore the scientific evidence that was produced by Pfizer, to give both doses within 3 weeks.
I am sure I read sometime back, that Oxford was already working on a vaccine for the SA variant and it could be ready by October? I am sure I read that. Edit : yes https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55917793
New vaccines could be inhaled instead of injected, if they can get it right, with suggestions that they would be more effective.
The comment was made in the interview that there were supposedly new vaccines being released within the next few months but all these alternatives were likely to have the same deficiencies as the Pfizer and AZ and therefore be useless. No comment was made regarding whether Oxford or other scientists were currently working on a solution other than to suggest that they needed to start from scratch as opposed to adjusting what had already been produced. What worried me most was the suggestion that the situation in Europe will deteriorate as the SA variant becomes prevalent. I think the Govt has done an incredible job in rolling out the two vaccines and effectively getting ahead of the rest of the developed world but it has not managed to get ahead of the virus which had been given time to sufficiently mutate as a consequence of a poor global response. The fact that the Govt's strategy allowed the Kent variation to come in to fruition is perhaps one of the most damning indictments of the government. In a nutshell, the AZ vaccine is likely to be obsolete by the autumn and we will all require another jab - assuming there is one available that works. What we appear to be witnessing in the UK at the moment is merely the conclusion of the first chapter and we have no idea of exactly how many chapters there are in this book.
It’s already landed. I had this put through my door yesterday, and a test this morning... Pretty sure you’re misreading the reports though; there there seems to be little evidence that the vaccines will be ineffective in reducing serious illness in infected individuals.
Though there's some good news in...ermm...Syrian hamsters - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.11.435000v1
It has always been clear that annual vaccinations will be required...as happens now for flu which also changes over time. Scientific advances mean effective vaccines can be produced faster than ever, but a vaccine effective against all variants will not happen. Some people talk almost as if viruses have a plan....they do not....they change at random and variants spread if they gain an advantage. Evolution at work. There will be many variants that are less effective than the original and they will die out. Some talk that the huge advances made out of necessity during the pandemic may mean that vaccines against cancer will be a possibility.
Did you say that last summer when the beaches were rammed, but caused no spike? Or last years BLM protests? It's getting boring all this "cases will rise soon" bollocks that people keep spouting. Some of us are really struggling with the constant fear and doom mongering, and this negativity isnt doing us any good.
@Number 1 Jasper needs a ban for derailing the rabbit hutch thread. This is the coronavirus thread *tutts #whenitsuits
Father in law already booked a holiday house in N Yorkshire for anyone of us who wants to go in August. Hopefully we can and it will be a good family get together
