Tuesday's Meetings Cheltenham Festival N/H 7 Races 1:20-4:50p.m. Southwell A/W 7 Races 12:30-3:55p.m. Sedgefield N/H 7 Races 1:45-5:05p.m. Newcastle(E) A/W 7 Races 5:15-8:15p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Place a bet in the Virtual Betting shop here The 2021 Cheltenham Festival Betting Competition Good Luck
I'm toying with the idea (just toying mind) of having a "shortie yankee" on Appreciate It, Shishkin, Honeysuckle and Concertista. If they did all win I'd be sick if I hadn't placed it, pays around 80 quid for a 1 quid yankee. Worth chucking 11 quid at? I guess if only 3 win you'd still make a small profit and even if all 4 lost its only 11 quid (or multiples thereof depending on how confident you are).
Epatante and Houx Gris double for me, strongly fancy both. I like Roksana as well but the fav will be hard to beat. Shishkin a cert. The first race is money back on losers with skybet.
Here my thoughts on the Ultima field - not seen much posted about this race so all views welcome: 1. Cepage - too much weight, career-high mark 2. Aye Right - very solid this season but creeping up the weights without winning - place at best 3. Pym - beat Imperial Aura here over 3m 1f in Dec 2019 but pulled up in RSA last year. Goes well fresh but high enough in the weights. 4. OK Corral - festival record reads: 2nd in Albert Bartlett, pulled up in 4-miler. Hard to fancy after a 14 month break. 5. Milan Native - Last year's Kim Muir winner. Was going OK until a bad blunder knocked him back over Xmas. Reeks of a plot but mark is high. 6. Happygolucky - novice who is 2 from 3 over fences, not seen since C&D win in December. Leading player. 7. Alnadam - another novice, 2 from 4 this season but both those wins at Sandown. Big ask off this mark. 8. Delire D'Estruval - 16th in the Martin Pipe on only Cheltenham run, prefers going right-handed on all evidence. 9. Vintage Clouds - standing dish in this and back to last winning mark (Peter Marsh last year). Place claims. 10. Discordantly - highly tried 7YO but a risky proposition at the moment 11. Admiral's Secret - thoroughly exposed chaser trying trip for first time of career high mark. Priced accordingly. 12. One For The Team - novice who found it tough going in the Sky Bet Chase on handicap debut. Likely to struggle again. 13. The Wolf - Novice has dropped down the weights recently and could go well at a price in first time cheekpieces. 14. Nietzsche - still only 8 but this is a big step up in trip for the 2018 Greatwood Hurdle winner. Possibly interesting e/w angle for shrewd trainer. 15. Soupy Soups - thoroughly exposed and pulled up in this last year off 4lbs higher mark. 16. Fingerontheswitch - veteran who is dropping down the weights - but with good reason. Verdict: Happygolucky is very solid at the head of the market at around 11/4 and should go really close. The Gigginstown runner reeks of a plot (even though his mark is plenty high enough for my liking) and I just don't want to see an Elliot horse win - sorry. A couple that could go well at a nice e/w price are Brian Ellison's Nietzsche and the McNeill horse The Wolf.
Haven't looked at the odds Oddy, but if you say you would make a small profit on the £11 if 3 win, then aren't 6 of the bets a waste of money?
First real look at the mares hurdle today and one who could outrun her odds is Floressa. She was going well in the mares novices race last year until getting totally blocked (and nearly shoved through the rails) on the home turn which cost her any chance. This season she started well by romping home in the Gerry Feilden but has since shaped as though this step up might suit. The fav will be hard to beat and Roksana is sure to place so from a betting perspective this race makes little appeal. But the one I could imagine grabbing a place at rewarding odds is Floressa.
My darts on day 1: Supreme - Ballyadam for me, hoping better ground and pace will help him here, i think the Ballymore would have been spot on for Appreciate It. I can't see Blue Lord being out the top 3 either. Arkle - Shishkin, far too good for them Ultima - Milan Native and Pym. MN won the Kim Muir last year and looks to be a bit of a plot as Oddy said earlier. I fancy Pym to go well, better ground will suit him. Champ Hurdle - I think Goshen could be special and wouldn't be surprised if he blunts the turn of foot of Epatante and is too quick for Honeysuckle. Can see Abacadabras travelling all over the field, but not sure if he will find much after the last, fancy him to place at least though. Mares - Indefatigable is only rated 4lbs lower than the 2 at the top, won over this distance in the Martin Pipe last year and is on the back of a wind op. Boodles - More Elliot plots for me. I like Glorious Zoff and Riviere D'etel. NH Chase - Nicholls has a horrible record in this and not sure Galvin is quite good enough. I fancy Escaria Ten, was staying on nicely behind 1 of the RSA hopefuls.
A long look at the Fred Winter has pointed me at Druid's Altar. His mark looks a little stiff but I think they were playing games last time out to keep his mark down (clearly didn't work) and he could have won much further. Bugger of a race to pick the winner of though. I do like Cabot Cliffs too but again the handicapper has been less than lenient. One interesting thing to note - I was interested in Houx Gris on his debut in the Finale and remember reading Nicholls on Betfair saying "the heavier the ground the better for this lad" so it is interesting to now read him saying he will appreciate better ground
In the National Hunt Chase Galvin is all the rage but I do think this prize might stay at home with Next Destination and Remastered looking to hold great chances - Pipe's Reynoldstown winner for me, looked very good at Ascot.
I have for the first day: Supreme Metier 6/1 (Uhtred 40/1 e/w NR) Arkle Chase Captain Guiness 20/1 e/w and 25/1 e/w Ultima Aye Right 20/1 e/w (Canelo 25/1 e/w NR) Champion Hurdle Saldier 25/1 e/w and James Du Berlais 66/1 e/w Mares' Hurdle Dame De Compagnie 10/1 e/w Fred Winter (Boodles) Glorious Zoff 16/1 e/w National Hunt Chase Lord Royal 14/1 e/w (Run Wild Fred 20/1 e/w NR) Good luck all.
I have been having a good look at the handicaps as the Championship races looked short on value and then in the Ultima I come up with HAPPYGOLUCKY . He has the perfect profile to win this race. In the Boodles I like CABOT CLIFFS and last week Admiral Balko gave the form a huge boost but the Irish look to have strong juvenile form and I took the 12/1 about RIVIERE D'Etel. ESCARIA TEN for me in the finale as I think this trip looks tailor made for him (sorry Tward)
Sorry but want to pull you up on Admirals Secret. He has only raced 22 times in his career, which is much less than a horse like Nietzche and importantly they’ve found the key to him, albeit a very unusual one. Admirals Secret gets ponied to the start these days and that seems to have ironed out plenty of temperament issues. Since this has started he has gone on a very good run and last time out he stayed on very strongly at Warwick and fared best of the hold up horses. You can see why they want to test him over this trip and if he stays it well, you can certainly see reasons to be optimistic of a further improved effort. He is related to plenty of staying horses, and being by Kayf Tara wouldn’t be a negative either for the trip. I like him tomorrow, certainly can see him outrunning his odds and with Milan Native is my bet in the race.
Load of pish, roll on the flat. Metier my only interest, tipped up i see with another 18 selections by the poster who delivered the Energumene and Thyme Hill news. No chance. Odds against i even watch any of it live, 6 and 7 runner supreme and arkle and a bunch of handicaps, they want to add more days tho.
