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Daily Racing Thread Friday 12th. February 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Feb 11, 2021.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    #1
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  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Southwell 15.15 I've chosen a tricky race here as a strong case can be made for two of the runners

    Blackcurrent beat 2 of these on Sunday over this C&D so is clearly in form and likes the track. At the weights there appears to be no reason to expect any change in placings The time of that race was slow by 3.42s and he carries another 3lb tomorrow

    True Hero ran a good race at this track 3 days earlier after an absence of 113 days. That race was over 6f and True Hero was going strongly with the leaders until weakening from 1f out. Nevertheless, he was only beaten 3¼L and the time was slow by 1.70s. He now carries 2lb less. On the face of it one could reasonably expect he would have finished in front of Blackberry over the 5f; and he should strip fitter this time.

    So, everything points to True Hero winning this

    But, looking back through the form of Blackberry, when he won in a very good time over 5f at Newcastle in December the trainer explained his improvement as "the gelding may have benefitted by being able to run amongst other horses today, having had to run on his own from stall 1 at Southwell last time;". I did notice though that there was also a change of jockey, that being none other than Hollie Doyle who had never ridden the winner before, and who happens to be taking the ride tomorrow

    At the moment they go 9/4 Blackberry and 5/2 True Hero

    I will be very surprised if one of these does not win. 4/7 one of these winning looks the way to go if you can get it
     
    #2
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  3. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I would then put the winnings on Palazzo 5/2 in the last. C&D winner in fast time recently looks very good value
     
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  4. hawkeye

    hawkeye Well-Known Member

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    Sister eliza 5:00
    Opened up at 10/1 and soon backed down to nearly half that. 11/2 available I think. Ran OK last time taking an age to get going. Hoping that was just a warm up and better expected now the money is down.
     
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  5. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Now 2/1 True Hero and 5/2 Blackberry
     
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  6. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Navajo Dawn old boy
     
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  7. rudebwoy

    rudebwoy Well-Known Member

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    These low grade races are often unreliable, the good run can often be followed by indifferent ones , look through the horses history, have they ever won back to back ?
     
    #7
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  8. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Visor on 1st time. Wind surgery since last outing. Are your stats telling you something Nass?
     
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  9. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    More about being freshened up and having much better handicap form over the course and distance last January. If they get him back to that then he’s seriously well handicapped.

    throwing on the headgear and a wind op suggests that they should be trying today. On handicap marks it’s got very little to find but has much better back class.
     
    #9
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  10. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    Bluella is the one for me in that 3.15. Purely for interest, no betting.

    Closer to home, Park Row 50/1 BET365 @ 5.00. A bit of a shot in the dark with this one, he had a very poor 2020 (didn't most, I hear you say) but he has since had a good break and for a horse that was very reliable when on form around here, he now is on good mark if able to reproduce some of his better form. He is getting on in years, so it could be a case of him having had enough of the racing scene but at 50/1 he's hard to leave alone in a winnable looking race.

    Two more likely one's now, Zen Silence 10/3 runs at 4.00 and Scott Lang 13/2 runs at 4.30. Zen Silence has improved for the return to 5f and I think the favourite Cabachon is worth taking on.

    Scott Lang ran a very good debut, unlucky not to win, the front two 3 lengths clear of third. He finished over 3 clear of the fave for tonight's race, Meliferous, the bookies seem to believe that one will improve again tonight given his connections but I'm not so sure. Scott Lang was finishing strongly and he must surely go close on just his 2nd start.
     
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  11. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    Yes, we're freerolling now... Zen Silence was punted off the boards. Went off 6/4 and wins cosily enough having broke poorly and being almost last with only 3f to travel, Colin Keane readily picked off the pace setters to win with a bit in hand.
     
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  12. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Forget this bit <laugh>
     
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  13. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    Scott Lang just ran a cracker, drifted to double the price too, would have been an each way price had I left it until later to back. The winner was good, but likely also cost the well backed favourite a chance of winning when he edged right and blocked the Chris Hayes ridden S'all Good Man. An enquiry will be held but I'd be surprised if they throw it out as Palace Rock did it well once straightened up.

    Park Row now to win this 5.00. Into 40/1, the bookies are running scared <whistle>
     
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  14. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    Good run by Park Row, Ross Coakely somehow managed to get caught on heels rounding the home turn, which stopped the horse a little bit but he stayed on well for 5th there and looked to be more like himself. Will be winning around there before long i imagine.

    Good shout on Smiling Eliza hawkeye, looked the winner there 1f out and ended up a good price so hope you did him each way.

    That will do me until next week now, take care folks.

    It's cold outside, but it is even colder in here <laugh>
     
    #14
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2021
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  15. Daddy Pig

    Daddy Pig Active Member

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    Cheers STH sky bet paid 5places
     
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  16. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    Great, well done. I took 50's the 3 places with 365, I did contemplate 4 places for 45/1 with them but I was thinking he would either tail off or go very close to winning off that mark. At least ya got a few bob back, it was a more promising effort from him there and he will have winning races in him as I can't see him being raised for that run tonight, so possibly one to keep onside.
     
    #16
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  17. hawkeye

    hawkeye Well-Known Member

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    Unfortunately not, but to be fair, I wouldn't have backed it had I known it would drift to that price!
     
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