I am surprised Shishkin is still odds on but I expect him to beat the Mullins horse who has yet to even run at Cheltenham. Who knows if he will handle the undulations and/or the course. Shishkin as we know, does handle the course and won the supreme last season when so many things conspired against him. Let's not forget he was almost brought down in the race yet still got up to win it. I also think soft going is quite critical for Energumene and quicker going wouldn't suit. As long as the going is not heavy, Shishkin will win this pretty convincingly. I don't think Energumene will live with his speed of jumping... Likelihood is Mullins wins the Supreme with Appreciate it and Henderson wins the Arkle with a scintillating Shishkin display...that's how I see the festival starting which ain't that unusual..
I tend to agree with you re. Shishkin looking the better jumper but neither has coped with the Cheltenham fences and, in a fast run race, one mistake can put any horse out of it- or on the floor. In all fairness, Energumene beat a better field at the weekend than Shishkin has encountered. Going wise, I don’t think it will radically effect either horse but, the way the weather is, testing ground is certainly possible. I favour Shishkin but I’m not very confident.
Captain Guinness is an interesting proposition in the race I think. 25/1 around still, he is fast and looked to be running a big race when tumbling the last day. I am struggling to see how he will be out of the frame once he stays upright, whether he is good enough to beat the front two in the market remains to be seen.
12 left in at the 6 day entry stage and this does indeed look like being a very high class renewal with half of the field rated 155 or higher. I imagine Allmankind will make a bold bid from the front before being outstayed by the 2 big guns Shishkin and Energumene - the questions being which of those 2 will jump better at speed and which will come up the hill to better effect? What a race in prospect.
I think this is the hardest race of the entire festival to solve. Shiskin a worthy favourite having won at the festival, but Energumene with arguably the best current form and improving. Allmankind the dangerous dark horse and great each way bet. think you have to go with festival form but at odds on not the most attractive betting option
I think Energumene is a clear best in Ireland but he definitely favours the right when he jumps. The Irish Arkle was littered with him edging down the fences to his right and he had a bit of an awkward head carriage (again lugging right) at some fences in that race. I don’t think the Irish form stands up to scrutiny this year so it didn’t matter in January but against a decent horse I think he’s going to lose half a length at each fence plus momentum and I don’t see enough reasons to suggest he’s got so much in hand on ability that he’ll get away with it. Think about the form. He’s won an Irish Arkle on heavy when given the lead at the start which allowed him an easy time up front throughout. Franco Du Port in second was a handicap hurdler last year who fopped at Cheltenham. There’s been only two winners from his beginners chase. Nothing has won from the Racing post Novice Grade 1 that he won and nothing has looked like it would win either. Blackbow was third in the Arkle. He was a high potential bumper horse who didn’t perform against the best. Coming 4th of 5 Mullins runners in the Champion Bumper despite being Patricks selection. Then being beaten into second when again the favoured horse in the Punchy bumper. He didn’t win a hurdle race. When chasing, although he’s been highly tried and there’s no disgrace in coming third in an Irish Arkle, there’s no real substance to the races he’s been competing in. At 3/1 maybe you’re in business but he’s got the look of an Irish plunge and I wouldn’t want to take 2/1 or below. Listing a few question marks: No Cheltenham experience Jumps right handed Not sure he’s beaten much - he’s turning over Mullins inmates Franco Du Port and Blackbow who we’ve touched on above. Lacks a bit of experience in general Ground question marks - heavy specialist? Not sure. Will he get an easy lead in the Arkle?
Overall I think this is quite a poor renewal beyond Shiskin and maybe Energumene. Lots of the 150+ horses haven’t justified those ratings. It looks like a classic novice chase at Cheltenham where most of the participants will be middle of the road handicappers next year. Card’s on the table, I’ve backed Shiskin after last years Supreme at 5/1 so I’m a little biased but I wouldn’t be shocked if something unexpected happened as much as I can’t really see Shiskin losing. Maybe, purely based on last years hurdle form, Darver Star’s 3rd in the Champion Hurdle is enough to have a 40/1 each way poke and maybe a bit of the 18/1 without the favourite. If anyone can find a market without the front two something around 6/1 would tempt me.
Steady away thanks Ron. Popping on for Cheltenham. I’m more of a dip in and out fan nowadays. Hope you’re well.
Pretty much my views and probably same bias in terms of the race betting wise as I got on as Hendo was talking after the Supreme and got 7s!!
Shishkin hasn’t beaten much over fences either though has he? I’m not financially involved either way but if you can knock Energumene‘s form over fences then you can certainly knock Shishkin‘s. In terms oh chasing, Allmankind probably has the best collateral form in the book. Thing is, we don‘t know where Shishkin‘s Limit might be.
You’re right Oddy. He’s beaten what’s been put in front of him but it doesn’t amount to much. My take on Shiskin is simply that he’s got Cheltenham form. He’s got quality hurdle form. His natural jumping style ties in with the course so the negative that he can go a little left is less of a negative than his competitions negatives. We know the ground is a positive. I think there’s a couple of front runners who will take on Energumene and might set it up for Shiskin. It just makes more sense to me and with the Irish horse I expect you could probably get 6/4 on the day if you’ve not already got a position.
had 3 figures on Energumene at 40+, not really interested in the meeting now, that was the one bet and one race I was looking forward to
