Evening, In a week where Scotland punters nearly got a huge slice of bookmaker money thanks to an old fashioned punt on horses who hadn't been trying in recent races, we have seen a hell of a lot of good racing in Ireland and massive shake ups to markets for the Cheltenham Festival. Review I think we have to start in Ireland, with Honeysuckle cantering away from her field in the Champion Hurdle, beating a select field by 10 lengths in great style. She is now short for the Champion Hurdle, and hopefully Tamerlo did take the price for that race prior to the weekend! She was impressive, she kicked clear of the field and I think she has to be hugely respected for the festival. I was very pleased with the run of Abacadabras in second after being left to do the chasing and he wasn't given a hard time from the saddle. He looks to be being prepped for the spring and I think I can be optimistic that we will see a better run again at the festival on hopefully better ground. Same can be said of Sharjah, whilst backers of Saldier might as well throw their slips and pick another horse. We saw Chacun Pour Soi demolish the Dublin Chase field, he hacked all over Notebook and Fakir and went away for a very nice 8 length win. His time wasn't as fast as the novice chase that followed, but the time only shows half the picture given how easily he travelled and how long he was waited with. He looks the obvious one for the Champion Chase. We then saw Enurgumene win the Irish Arkle from the front, again in very good style, and he sets up what looks a cracking Arkle at the festival with Shishkin. I thought this was a very good run, but he jumped to the right on occasions and I think he still has to improve again to beat Shishkin. It will make a great race and interesting build up. Gaillard Du Mesnil won the opening novice hurdle, and did so in very good style. I think he will go Ballymore and that race is becoming the race of the festival with Bravemansgame and Bob Olinger both likely runners. He is the 7/2 favourite On day 2 we saw Quilixios win the juvenile hurdle in good form, passing Saint Sam with ease and cementing his place in the Triumph market. I was impressed by how quickly he closed down Saint Sam and when he went to the front he stayed very nicely. Saint Sam is now the favourite for the Boodles, but surely the handicapper will burden him with top weight? Appreciate It beat a much improved Ballyadam in a race that looks set to throw up the winner of the Supreme Hurdle. Appreciate It looks like he has everything and Ballyadam looked a much better horse who perhaps will improve again on better ground. You could argue that they are likely to be the forecast for the Supreme in March! Monkfish made all with a superb jumping display, looking imperious and the very likely winner of the former RSA. He beat Latest Exhibition again and lots of the others made mistakes. Not sure if there is any horse in the UK who is going to give any better running that Latest Exhibition so perhaps that would be the festival forecast too. Kemboy then made all in the Irish Gold Cup. He jumped well (not always the case) and showed a nice speed to go away from the field. The Storyteller stayed on really well and marked himself down as a stayer to stay on the side of. I thought this race was a story of poor jumping by a few of these and disappointment for Melon and Minella Indo. Whilst all this was going on, in the UK we saw the old warrior Native River roll back the years, winning the Cotswold Chase from Bristol De Mai with slowboat Santini back in third. The sight of the old boy jumping with Yala Enki and then relentlessly going on to grind BDM into submission after the last, was a joy to behold. He will be a lovely sight in the Grand National, as will the second. Somehow Sporting John managed to win the Scilly Isles, despite looking less than fluent and less than happy for most of the race. It was a poor renewal in the end and whilst he obviously has lots of talent, I would expect others to be better than him in championship races. Eyecatcher Obvious I know but Kilcruit was probably the most startling winner of the Dublin Racing Festival, hacking up with ease in the bumper. He looked like had joined in at the 2 pole and went away with such convincing ease. If something beats him at the festival then its going to be an awesome effort. And Finally If ever you wanted to see how scared bookmakers are about big multiple bets, you need to look at the SPs of the three horses in "the bet" today. Fire Away - even money - BSP 2.2 Blowing Dixie - 4/6 - BSP 3.0 Gallahers Cross - 4/5 - BSP 2.09 It was a hell of a punt, but the bookmakers overreacted and had them artificially short because of the lack of the on course market. Blowing Dixie should never have returned at 4/6 when he was touching 2/1 on the exchange. It begs the question, should racing be looking at how the starting prices are calculated and are SP punters (don't know anyone who bets at normal SP!) getting ripped off with the lack of on course bookmakers?
Excellent summary Nass For me there were 2 standouts this weekend. Firstly, Native River in the rearranged Cotswold Chase at Sandown. He rolled back the years with a devastating display of aggressive running and jumping, so reminiscent of the performance that broke Might Bite's heart just under 3 years ago. The gallant Yala Enki tried to go with him but the difference between handicapping and true Grade 1 quality was ruthlessly exposed as Native River surged clear. Secondly, amongst a plethora of Closutton stars on view at Leopardstown (more on that to come), Monkfish in the Flogas Novices Chase. An impeccable display of power and precision. he never touched a twig and his size means he can almost flick over his fences like hurdles. This most imposing chestnut gelding surely has the world at his feet and it can only be hoped he can stay sound and go on to show us what he is truly capable of in the next 2-3 seasons. It has been impossible to get away from the dominance of Willie Mullins at this year's Dublin Racing Festival. A charismatic, humble, genial genius, he has been at the top of the tree in National Hunt racing for many years and has given us some wonderful memories - Hurricane Fly, Faugheen, Un De Sceaux, Douvan, Al Boum Photo, Vautour - the list is almost endless. Yet (and this is by no means meant to be disrespectful to Mullins and his achievements), the interview with trainer Paul Hennessy after Heaven Help Us won the opener, spoke so much about the smaller yards, the trials and tribulations of this hardest of sports, that it was almost reassuring to see that Mullins can't win everything. This sport, like any other, needs its fairytales and small-time heroes. I was thinking this evening about all the festival races where Mullins has a really strong contender - and these are just off the top of my head - Supreme (Appreciate It), Arkle (Energumene), Mares Hurdle (Concertista), Fred Winter (Saint Sam), Ballymore (Gaillard Du Mesnil), RSA (Monkfish), Champion Chase (Chacun Pour Soi), Bumper (Kilcruit), Mares Novice Hurdle (Gauloise), Gold Cup (Al Boum Photo). Of course they won't all win, but it is frightening to think of so much talent in one yard and what it means for the future of the sport. Of course this has much to do with money and the fact that wealthy owners want their expensive purchases to be trained by the best. Perhaps I'm being churlish, spoilt by the rich treats from this weekend. I just hope that the big National Hunt races remain the stuff of dreams for smaller operations and we don't drift into the dominance of the big boys seen on the flat.
With the Cheltenham Festival just on the horizon i thought that this weekends racing gave us the first indications as to where we will be looking in terms of potential winners and the also rans... Monkfish was imperious, Honeysuckle and Energumene have given Shishkin & Epatante something to worry about come their respective races, though Honeysuckle hasnt shortened in the Mares market last time I checked like she has in the Champion Hurdle...?? I was equally impressed with Gaillard Du Mesnil, and he looks like the obvious starting point for the Ballymore in what is looking to be a good race on paper should the leading contenders make it to the race all fit and well. The Champion Chase looks for all the world Chacun Pour Soi's race to lose with Kilkruit almost looking the best 6/4 banker of the meeting after his canter around Leopardstown on Saturday coasting out to a 12 length victory which could have been a lap had he pushed out...!! One of the other leading contenders, Zanahiyr, looks like he's found a strong challenger in Quilixos for the Triumph as Apreciate It almost rubber stamped his opening victory of the Festival with another great round of jumping in his race... After looking forward to seeing what on paper a good renewal of the Irish Gold Cup, i was left a little bit deflated by all of the runners, Minella Indo especially, and feel that the connections of Royal Pagaille & A Plus Tard should seriously think about entering them in to the top race of Cheltenham as nothing really stands out as a challenge to Al Boum Photo. The market seems to indicate it's Al Boum Photos race to lose currently being an 8/11 race favourite, but that's got to be the worst 8/11 shot we have hasn't it, I dunno, I'm not feeling this race at all at the moment...?!? The only thing I will add to the look of the Festival in terms of betting is that nearly all of the runners in blue at the moment are from across the water in Ireland, and as Oddy rightly pointed out in his post, the ammo Mullins has at his disposal, along with Elliot (though he's just not firing yet at full bore...) will certainly make the Irish contingent look forward to the Festival with a bit more relish than our leading English counter parts... A bit to go yet, and it's all starting to bubble up nicely. Fingers crossed we can get them all to the Festival fit, strong and in ride health, as we need this Festival to be a good one to lift us from the gloom and doom this pandemic has us al in at the moment...
Some excellent commentary of what happened last week at the top end of the market Nass and I appreciate that is all most people will be interested in but just a couple of footnotes regarding the lower end of things. Firstly, ride of the week surely had to go to Bryony Frost (again) for her ride on Miss Heritage at Fakenham. She totally stole the race with a winning manoeuvre that was quite simply sensational. Its well worth a watch. Secondly, the return from absence of Pride Of Lecale and surely the requirement to add this one to the old tracker. Travelled extremely well until just seeming to blow up. Any feedback from the yard would be of great interest.
Not so sure about the narrative of Enurgemene giving Shiskin something to think about, to me, visually, Shiskin will have to produce a career best to beat Enurgemene at Cheltenham.
Thats the joy of racing, the market suggests that people think Shishkin has shown more than Enurgemene or has more potential. If you’ve read the conversations between myself and Oddy, the time of Shishkin penultimate run is very good in context of the Nube Negra race on the same card which to me was run in a similar style. How far do you think Shishkin would beat Franco De Port?
Good points, I thought Bryony was brilliant on Miss Heritage and she is riding superbly at present. Her ride the other week on Yala Enki at Taunton was another example of her understanding the strengths of her horses and the weaknesses of her opponents. She clearly thinks and plans her rides but also can adapt during races. Pride Of Lecale is an interesting one, he has had issues and I doubt that they will have sent him to the races short of work, so actually I was really disappointed with his effort. I guess next time out will tell us more. If I hear anything I will let folk know, but given we can't go to the yard, its more difficult! Time To Get Up was the other horse who caught the eye, he looks a proper horse for high quality handicaps.
Agree 100% with TIME TO GET UP. Has a big race in him and I think he will improve again in cheekpieces or blinkers. By the end of this season I expect his rating to be 15lb higher if he is campaigned fairly.
0.5 of a length. It's hard to put a number of lengths on it, in a truly run race I'd say a very rough estimate of 6 or 7 lenghts with FDP closing the gap to the line rather than Shiskin pulling away.
Re The Dublin Racing Festival I felt that my fave NH horse in training Chacun Pour Soi, Honeysuckle (what a lovely name for a mare by the way), Kilcruit and Monkfish were simply awesome and would expect them all to head to Cheltenham with a favourite’s chance. Similar comments apply to Appreciate It who although not ‘awesome’, at the weekend, did it in most professional fashion. Contrastingly the only horse to excite me at Sandown or Musselburgh was Native River who rolled back the old years to oblige in the Cotswold. I really do have my doubts if there is that much strength in depth in this terms CGC so it really wouldn’t surprise me to see Native River finish in the places once again next month. As to the eyecatcher I was really impressed by the performance of the outsider, Hook Up (is that a lovely name for a mare???? I guess that is a discussion for another day), in the Grade 1 novice hurdle won by Appreciate It. Stayed on in most eyecatching fashion. I’ve never heard of Hook Up’s trainer but he is owned by the forum’s 8th favourite owner, the heir to the biscuit tin fortune, Rich Richtea. The 5YO mare is eligible for everything bar the Boat Race at Cheltenham and beyond but looks very much one to follow wherever she turns up.
And Santini was dropped 3 lbs by the handicapper after his trot around Sandown on Saturday. Just in advance of the release as Grand National weights as well. My gosh if his trainer didn't have the straightest bat in sport who knows what would be alleged. Nudge, nudge and all that...
Some great write-ups and comments above. Honeysuckle certainly made the opposition look third rate in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Last year, I thought both her and Benie Des Dieux were cowardly in swerving our Champion Hurdle. So why doesn’t Mullins take up the gauntlet and Honeysuckle and go for the Champion Hurdle as well with BDD? Especially since he has Concertista for the Mares Hurdle. I must say I thought Monkfish vied with Honeysuckle for the ‘star of the show’ award. His performance had echoes of Denman at his best- similar build; bold front running; good jumping; relentless to the end. It thrills me to think of his clashing with Envoi Allen in next year’s Gold Cup. Ironically, I think that either of them could win the race this year and, at 7 years old, they’re not exactly young to be novice chasing. Perhaps I’m too ambitious!
I would agree with this simply based on the fact hes never raced against a horse in the same class as Energumene, but the same is true for Energumene with Shishkin. Energumenes Irish Arkle win is stronger form than anything Shishkin has but he has always looked a superstar and has been winning with plenty in hand. Last years Supreme has proven a poor race and he made hard work of it due to his running style, behind the bridle and lacking a bit of tactical speed, not ideal in a 2 mile chaser but Altior got away with it for years. I think the soft prep is a slight negative for Shishkin and unlike last time, he wont be allowed to just warm to the task in his own time with a horse like Energumene out devouring the property. For me Energumene has more of the qualities id want in top 2 miler, I think Shishkin is really a King George horse and I think its extremely likely that he will look in big trouble at some point, but he is a bottomless pit and you know hes going to find plenty off the bridle. Im probably going to batter into Energumene again at 5/2 as it looks a coin toss to me and its not every day you get 5/2 in a coin toss.
