5 for me tomorrow, and its a Mike Murphy extravaganza 2.35 Goodwood La Fortunata 12/1 4.45 Goodwood Rock Anthem 14/1 5.15 Goodwood Chapter and Verse 5/1 3.45 Curragh Katla 8/1 4.00 Limerick Capal Dubh Alainn 12/1 I'll pop some write ups up in a while
2.35 Goodwood La Fortunata 12/1 NAP Like the look of Mike Murphy’s 4 year old in the shape of La Fortunata a lot tomorrow. This filly has been a great servant to both her trainers, registering 3 wins and 12 places from a total of 25 starts and probably still isn’t entirely exposed either. Although she disappointed 2 starts ago off 83 at Sandown when sent off joint favourite, the ground was too soft for her that day and I am willing to overlook that effort. If we go back 6 starts, La Fortunata ran an excellent 1L 2nd behind Secret Asset at Goodwood at the end of July off a mark of 81. That day, La Fortunata was drawn very wide in stall 1 and elected to race alone for the vast majority of the race and it was an excellent effort. It may very well have been a case that La Fortunanta was running on worse ground than the rest and her effort was even better than the bare result. Even still, the form of that race is working out very nicely. The winner has subsequently finished 4.5L behind Hoof it and won off a 6lb higher mark in a Class 2 so La Fortunata was clearly beaten by a well handicapped horse. Further to this, a few of the other horses in behind have won off similar marks so the form looks rock solid. Three starts back La Fortunata put in an excellent effort on ground that was definitely softer than ideal for her as she finished 1.12L back in 4th behind Your Gifted. She had a poor draw which was a big negative for this horse who likes to front run and she was squeezed out in the final furlong and it was really a fine performance. Her trainer Mike Murphy said that they will be looking for some better ground but 2 starts ago she once again encountered ground too soft. She disappointed that day but this front running filly didn’t break very well and got blocked off when she needed a run. LTO Murphy finally got some good to firm ground for his filly and she duly delivered the goods when winning off a mark of 84 (including 1lb overweight) at Newmarket in a Class 2 handicap at the end of last month over 6f. It was only her 2nd start over the distance and she is now 100% at the distance. Its quite strange that she’s had 23 starts over 5f and only 2 over 6f but it always seemed that she wouldn’t stay the 6f but her last effort probably put that too bed. Under a very good ride from Andrea Atzeni, La Fortunata absolutely bolted out of the gates from a poor enough draw to bag the near side running rail. She used her typical front running tactics and led from start to finish in a time that was 0.13s faster than standard so there was no fluke about it. She has had just the one run at Goodwood as mentioned earlier on when 2nd so she clearly acts at the track. Furthermore, Epsom has a similar undulating track and she has had 3 starts there and has never been beaten by more than a length so its clear this type of track suits her. Tomorrow, La Fortunata races off a mark of 87 and is only 3lb higher than her win LTO. Furthermore, she is dropped in from a Class 2 to a Class 3 so I think the 12/1 currently on offer is pretty ridiculous. Jockey Tony Culhane has gotten on well with her before so its a definite positive. Murphy stated on his website that she has come out well from her last race so I’ve no concerns that she can’t put up a repeat performance. She has a mediocre draw in stall 8 but I am hoping that she can absolutely bounce out from the stalls and get a prominent position that she needs. Good ground is absolutely crucial tomorrow and if any rain comes she will probably be pulled. This winner LTO is dropped in Class, is only 3lb higher and running at a track where she performs well and if she gets the quick ground desired she could make an absolute mockery of the double figure price available. 4.45 Goodwood Rock Anthem 14/1 NB I quite like the look of Mike Murphy’s 7 year gelding in what looks a very open contest tomorrow. Although he doesn’t win much, Rock Anthem last 2 wins came in the same race at Sandown in the same handicap a year apart in 2010 and 2009. Last year he was given a fantastic ride by Russ Kennemore off a mark of 72. He was waited with for a long time at the back of the field and Kennemore pushed the button inside 2 furlongs to go and Rock Anthem proceeded to blast through the field to get up in the last 100 yards to win by 0.75L to Beaumont’s Party. The effort was visually very impressive as he met a couple of momentum sapping spots on his way to victory. I believe there was still a lot of horse left under Kennemore at the end of the race. The 2nd in that race has subsequently come out and won twice off a mark of 75 (was 74 that day) and has finished a very respectable 4th off 83 LTO. A couple of others that day who were behind have come out to win off similar marks. Rock Anthem has 6 wins to date and his victory in 2009 came as a 5 year old when he was actually a 1L 2nd behind Desert Kiss. Rock Anthem was flying home that day but just couldn’t get to the front, again off 72. Desert Kiss was rated 80 that day so considering he weighed in light its fair to say he was a couple of lbs lighter than that. Desert Kiss was a 4 year old at the time and he has subsequently gone on to win off marks of 85 and 89. The declared 2nd that day Poyle Meg, who raced off 77 that day and finished 1.75L behind Rock Anthem, has subsequently won off a mark of 80 on the AW. The 3rd has come out and won off a 1lb lower mark. Rock Anthem started the season disappointingly and came out and produced a rather disappointing run at Sandown where he was 2-2 over the C+D. However, he blew the start completely that day and I think he was probably saved for another day. Furthermore, the ground had probably gone against him with all his wins coming on ground that is good or better. Tomorrows ground is forecast to be Good so if we don’t get any rain then I think the ground should be ideal. Rock Anthem continued the disappointing trend of poor performances when finishing a distant 9th at Brighton off a mark of 75. Martin Dwyer was booked that day and it was a bad run with no excuses. If that was his last run I would be very hesitant to back him but he definitely showed that he was returning to some sort of form LTO at Kempton on August 15th. Racing off a lower AW mark, Rock Anthem was dropped out the back by jockey Tony Culhane and he travelled very well throughout the race. Culhane brought Rock Anthem down the outside and he came with a very promising run and looked to have a serious chance 1f out. However, it became apparent that Rock Anthem was not going to win and he was eased in the final furlong eventually finishing 4L behind the winner Catchanova. The form of the race looks fine with Catchanova winning again off a 6lb higher mark and the 2nd Ferruccio coming 2nd off a 3lb higher mark. It definitely was evident that Rock Anthem was nearing his best form and looks sure to come on from that run. LTO Rock Anthem raced off a mark of 71, which is 1lb lower than his two victories in the two Sandown contests, and the same mark he races off tomorrow effectively as he is 2lb out of the handicap. Rock Anthem definitely continued to look like he was coming back to his best when finishing 3.25L behind Yensi at Leicester last month on ground that wasn’t ideal as it was officially declared good, good to soft in places. In a race where it definitely paid to be ridden prominently as the front 2 home led from start to finish, Rock Anthem came from quite far back and definitely made inroads into the pace setters without quite getting there. That said I was very encouraged with the run and he definitely does not seem to have lost his ability. Tomorrow, Rock Anthem tackles a Class 4 event at Goodwood and I am praying that at least there is no rain and preferably a drying wind that turns the ground to good to firm as it will benefit all 3 Murphy runners at Goodwood. Rock Anthem was dropped 2lb for his latest effort but as he is out of the handicap he races off the same mark of 71. With top apprentice Kieran O’Neill booked for just his 2nd ride for the stable, he takes another handy 3lb off. Rock Anthem has had 2 starts at Goodwood in his career and he won once, so he clearly acts on this undulating track. He is definitely well treated on his old form as he 1lb lower than his latest winning mark. He is a horse that does well at this time of the year with his last 4 wins and 2 places coming from August onwards. Stall 10 isn’t ideal but as he is a horse who likes to come from off the pace it shouldn’t be too much of a hindrance. The 14/1 currently available is vastly overpriced in my opinion and I really am hoping the rain stays away tomorrow.
5.15 Goodwood Chapter and Verse 5/1 If your going to back Chapter and Verse do it now as I think Mr. Hugh Taylor will tip this one up tomorrow again. I am 100% convinced that Mike Murphy’s 5 year old gelding is capable of winning off this mark if he finally decides that he shouldn’t get himself into trouble in running! Despite only winning 3 times in his career, Chapter and Verse has placed on a further 9 occasions and its probably the fact that he finds trouble so often that he hasn’t won more. LTO with Richard Hughes booked, he seemed by far the best horse in the race off tomorrow’s mark of 83 but he once again met trouble in running at Newmarket last month in a Class 3 event. This strong traveller was dropped out the back as per usual and he travelled better than anything in the race but unfortunately he just didn’t go through the gap and I certainly think he could easily have won that race, and its a guarantee that the bare result of 1.5L back in 3rd isn’t a fair reflection of his run. Dubai Dynamo, who finished 3.75L behind Chapter and Verse, has subsequently come out and come 2nd to the progressive Greensward by 0.5L off the same mark so the form looks fine. Tomorrow, Chapter and Verse tackles the 1m trip at Goodwood and is off the same mark again tomorrow. Another encouraging sign is that Chapter and Verse is dropped in class to a Class 4 event and in my eyes he is certainly capable of winning off this mark, and he has placed off a 2lb higher mark also. Once again he likes the firm ground so it seems like the weather conditions will dictate Murphy’s day. He’s had one run at Goodwood before where he finished 5.25L behind the winner so there is a slight doubt on whether or not he can act on the track. He’s got a decent drawn in stall 6 but considering his win rate he isn’t the sort to lump on at the price. With a clear run, I am utterly convinced Chapter and Verse can win off this mark on turf and if the ground is ideal tomorrow for his 3 runners this could be the end to a fantastic day for the Mike Murphy stable. ‎4.00 Limerick Capal Dubh Alainn 12/1 William Coleman O’Brien’s 6 year old gelding won off a mark of 95 by 18L on Heavy ground at Thurles in January 2010. He put in a decent performance on Good/Good to firm in Roscommon in August when as 12.75L 5th behind Ongenstown Lad over 3m off a mark of 104 (7lb claimer on board). LTO Capal Dubh Alainn put in an excellent 3rd 1.78L behind the well handicapped Bundle of Fun over 3m at Listowel on Heavy ground off a mark of 104 (5lb claimer on board). Raised only 2lb for that effort and has the same jockey on board tomorrow as when 3rd in the shape of P A Gallagher. Any rain would be a positive for what is trainer William Coleman O'Brien and the jockeys only action tomorrow. 3.45 Curragh Katla 8/1 I have been following Katla since his 2nd star as a 2 year old as he came out of the same race as Misty for Me where he finished an excellent 1.25L 2nd. In the interim period, Katla has developed into a very talented animal winning 3 times since and placing 6 times from his 12 subsequent starts. These have included a 6L victory over Barefoot Lady as a 2 YO in a Listed race at York, 4 places in Listed races, a place in a French Group 2 and another Listed win LTO. She is clearly a very progressive sort and although all of her form is undoubtedly impressive, I note a 2L 4th to subsequent Group 1 winner Margot Did on his last visit across the Irish Sea as notable as he got quite close although something seemed amiss at Ayr in June. LTO Grogan sent Katla over to compete in a 5f Group 3 and despite finishing 2nd last the effort was better than the bare look of it. Kieren Fallon was booked also so she was clearly though to do better. All in All, Katla looks to have a great chance tomorrow if overcoming the very poor stall 1 draw. She acts on soft ground as demonstrated by his defeat of Barefoot Lady with the booking of Pat Smullen for the first time another obvious positive. He’s a proven performer in this class, is in good form and if the draw doesn’t ruin her chances then she is sure to have an excellent chance.
I'm a week early, but Holy "Duck Sunday"** - an early one (it's what I call it 'cos we all eat duck here next Sunday, why I dunno, don't like it myself particularly) congrats to ROTO; these are some write-ups. Very best of luck with your selections. Great stuff! **(I'm advised that it's like Thanksgiving).
2.20 Milly Malone This race looks rather interesting with a couple of runners from the big yards starting their hurdling careers today, with Arctic Actress and Cross The Flags both taking out a good proportion of the market. Arctic Actress won a modest bumper and looks to be priced up on the trainers name rather than the form in the book. She is related to Wee Robbie and Isn't That Lucky, both of which appreciated more of a staying trip than this 2miles and I do think she is vulnerable at a short price here. Cross The Flags is a half sister to Synchronised and is another with plenty of stamina in her pedigree and could easily be unstuck by a speed test here. She is one to watch for the future and I do think she will be a useful hurdler over further in time. She seems to be priced up on her colours and connections rather than her breeding and the formbook. The two who have arguably the best bumper form are Big Time Billy and Milly Malone. The former has the best bumper form and she has experience over hurdles, she ran big races in good bumpers at Aintree and Punchestown before disappointing over hurdles in her last three runs. She looks the sort to win a 2 mile race and this could be her day. However I really like the first run of Milly Malone when beaten by Tante Sissi in a Fakenham bumper, she finished well clear of the pack that day and looked one to be with for the future. She disappointed in the big listed fillies bumper at Sandown before finding 14furlongs too sharp at Fontwell on her final bumper start. The yard have started the season in fair form and I do think that this mare could take a hand in the finish and at 16/1 she looks a wee bit too big. Small EW bet.
Against all logic I've done something I've never done before, a 4-timer! Limerick 2.30 Sailors Warn 4/6 Limerick 3.30 Royal Reveille 4/5 Limerick 5.05 Loosen my Load 4/7 Limerick 5.40 Far away so close 1/1 They all looked good on paper (or screen)...
Milly finishes 3rd, not a bad bet for once. Glad I got the market right, Big Time Billy was the best of the principles but was tipped off by the Jo Hughes first time hurdler. Good little race was that.
Hello lads. Nice ew Nass and a good ride on the winner from Mark Grant.How he was replaced by Nick Schofield at the Turnell yard frankly beggars belief. Nothing really excites me today but i've had small ew's on View in the 2.45 at The Curragh and Elysian Rock in the 4.35 at Limerick,both at 20's,to pass the afternoon. I seemingly struck those bets in the wee small hours...don't really remember tbh! GL all with your selections.
I do like the Keighley horse in the novice chase but over 2 miles I will just watch. I wouldn't be surprised to see it finishing well in behind Temple Lord
As an aside,The Ox horse in fourth at the Curragh ran a lovely race and is one for the future. What is strange is the way Murtagh barely even pushed him out hands and heels,never mind resort to even a flicked backhander.This is very much a trait of this yard and,although they were sanctioned earlier in the year,they get away with it time after time.It's no secret that I detest schooling in public and whilst no one wants to see horses beaten like carpets on debut,they must run on their merits to attain the best finishing position as stipulated in the rules of racing. These schooling runs are legion and why I don't back in newcomer events as a rule.
I have just backed Richard Hills, i thought aziff was too big at 11-4 could not resist it , i never learn.
I don't know what all the fuss is about he popped it out in front set an uncomplicated pace and asked him to go on when needed. Or That horse must have a hell of a lot in hand as he just won under the only apprentice without a claim.
That horse must have a hell of a lot in hand as he just won under the only apprentice without a claim
..he certainly won't suffer under the new whip guidelines...neither will his hapless hands and heels understudy O'Shea.
