Tips / Bets Cheltenham 2021 - Ante-Post Bets

I think Espoir De Romay is a serious horse

Trained by man of the moment Kim Bailey, he was last seen trying to give 5lb to yesterdays Grade 2 winner Royale Pagaille

Is still very unexposed over a fence and has two novice entries at the Festival, and have played him each way in both

Bet 365..66-1 [Festival] & Unibet.. 100-1 [Marsh]

 

Hi Not606,

Been a while!

Have the 3x lockdowns affected anyones ante-post punting?

 

Howdy Kev hope all is well. How is your ante post potfolio looking?

 

Bigger and bolder than ever! Started off slower but working from home has just meant so much more time and therefore, more bets. Hopefully better bets too, but only time will tell for that

Certainly has the style of a stayer so should be there at the business end. I got very excited about French Aseel when he won - the subsequent price collapse because he changed silks though would stop me getting as giddy if I was starting out today though.

Fingers crossed

 

Hi Kev. Nice to see you here.

 

The ban on amateur jockeys makes it a lot of fun this year to see who rides the horses in the Hunters Chase. This is not the case in Ireland where this Sunday at Nass we have a very interesting race where eighteen horses will be running including last year's Festival winner It Came To Pass, Billaway (current favourite), Dragon D'estruval, Staker Wallace, Aloneamongmillions and among others the horse I had chosen this year until I found Highway Jewel.

Next week there are a couple of Hunters Chase in UK if none of them are cancelled, as has already happened with the one scheduled for February 1st at Hereford. No less than thirty-three horses at Warwick on Wednesday and thirty at Wincanton on Thursday have an entry and, among them, some illustrious names such as The World's End and my 40/1 bet for this year Highway Jewel. I'm really curious as to who their jockey is going to be.

 

James Du Berlais is apparently on course to make a stable debut for Willie Mullins in the Champion Hurdle before a novice chase campaign next season. He's 66/1 with Lads, and if you can get their 'boosts' that goes to 80/1.

I'm 'reliably' informed he has a mark of 160 in the UK, so if he ran to that mark he'd have a decent place chance according the the handicapper, with any improvement, not impossible he gets involved at a big price.


Good luck with Highway Jewel today Pilgrim. I know plenty like The World's End too, should be a good race, and rematch in March!

 

Thank you very much. As I said in the thread of the day, I'll settle for a top four finish and a safe return. If she wins then all the better because I couldn't resist the temptation to bet on her today after having put her here in December. Most likely the bubble will burst at quarter past four but honestly I really enjoyed the excitement of watching her race to qualify.

Regarding James Du Berlais I have broken a rule that I have been following for years, and that is not to bet on more than one horse in a race except in the Grand National. For the Champion Hurdle I put Saldier 25/1 e/w here in November and the only thing I was worried about when the entries came out in January was that he would be there. I didn't look any further. But I read in the middle of the month the section WM has in Sportinglife about his weekend runners and, I think offhandedly, he was full of praise for the horse, specifically saying:

"The entries are being made for Cheltenham now and James Du Berlais is one we've put in the Unibet Champion Hurdle. He looks great and looks strong, he's very good and I'm very pleased with him. We'll see how he goes but probably Cheltenham and Punchestown and then back to Auteuil is more likely to happen with him rather than the Dublin Festival."

I have to admit that I had never heard of the horse in my life and, out of curiosity, I looked at his odds and found that 66/1 irresistible. I looked on Equidia and youtube for some of his races and I liked what I saw so, without going crazy, I bet on him and broke one of my most sacred rules.

 

Very happy with the race. Only one mistake and she finished like a train, she's tiny but bully. She is already qualified so now to rest until March and in good health.

 

As a "The Worlds End" backer pre-race, I can assure you, you're on a better bet than I am!

I can't believe the positivity around TWE on my forum.... I've suggested that literally nobody that wasn't on TWE pre race has backed him after today and so far no-one has piped up!

 

TWE is a bit of an enigma horse, you’ve first got to decode all of his form, then try and translate it to fences and then amateur races that aren’t for amateur jockeys.

To me he really shouldn’t be Hunter Chasing because he doesn’t look comfortable over fences and I don’t think big field chase races are going to help him at all.

That said, he stayed on nicely yesterday and going around the inside looked a silly riding choice by the useless Heskin. I thought he showed more than I was expecting yesterday.

I don’t rate the form of yesterday very highly the mare and TWE only got close to a winner who has a history of idling when ahead (watch his Cheltenham win for another example). They will all have to improve markedly to be Festival contenders in my opinion.

my bet in the Foxhunters that is no longer called the foxhunters is Red Indian.

 

?

 

The first thing I think when I see a horse like TWE, who just over a year ago won a Grade 1 (57k) or any other horse that has competed at such a high level is, why? It's clear that if those kind of horses come to run in the Hunters' Chase it's because they have a problem and usually a serious one.

That's why I never like to trust those kind of horses, I made one exception (I'm making too many lately, must be the years) with Shantou Flyer in 2019 but one and no more. Last year I had blind faith in Caryto Des Brosses but unfortunately he got injured, I thought he would come back this year but he hasn't and actually thanks to him I found Highway Jewel because up to that point my two horses for this year were On The Sod and Porlock Bay who runs today at Wincanton and I hadn't decided on either. I don't think Highway Jewel is going to win (I hope) but what I am sure is that she will try make all and, if she doesn't have any accidents, she will fight to the end. I'll settle for that.

 

My issue with her is that she is small and she got outpaced on heavy ground around Warwick, so I’d have major doubts on her sitting up with the pace at the festival. It’ll be interesting!!

Perhaps that point win was just the only horse that was fit and suited to conditions relishing it and Hazel Hill has stripped fitter in his win since.

 

I fully agree.

It is clear that Hazel Hill was not in the form he is now because, among other things, he had almost a year without racing due to injury, but what worried me before yesterday's race was that that victory was a "flower of a day" and yesterday the mare showed that she can run at a good level in this type of race, probably not at a top level but at a good level.

 

Can't explain this: a) I'm practically never awake by 0900 and b) as you probably know, I regard jump-racing as a mild English eccentricity like morris-dancing or cheese-rolling. The chances of my having a Cheltenham AP bet are about the same as a foursome with the back row of the English women's rugby team.
Likeliest explanation is a cat walking across a keyboard.