tad simplistic imo as during the summer the original lockdown had driven the number of infected down , though it was still at large in the community to say the least , which goes a long way to explaining the lack of spike however by Christmas we knew it was rampant and was even more transmittable therefore the same behaviours would lead to different results .
It is an over simplification. We had low infection rates in the summer and they are higher now.
But I was 'out in the field' so to speak in the summer at markets and events as we had few restrictions down here. Folk coming down stayed in their bubbles, observed the rules, sanitised their hands, wore their masks and then went home to their holiday homes in their family bubbles. The restaurants and cafe's etc responded brilliantly with their covid secure measures and in the most, it was contained.
Add in a more contagious variant and a general sense of covid fatigue. The supermarkets are no longer making people queue to get in, have ditched one way systems and queuing for the tills, a bit more complacency and then basically ditching all the rules for Christmas. And although Boris said nobody should travel for xmas at the 11th hour, most people had made their plans and were going to **** that off regardless.
Huge amounts of household mixing down here at xmas with families who travelled here from all over the country has seen rates spike down here now.
