Evidenced here in the Netherlands by a 27% rise in cases despite a partial lockdown. Arrogant arseholes all, anyone coming to close to me is politely asked to keep their distance, non compliance met with a more direct request.
Mathematically! Let's assume a R0 for COVID of 2.2 if one does absolutely nothing. Let's say that strict social distancing produces a 0.5, and let's say that cautious-but-not extreme social distancing produces a 0.9. That's a really low number for no-action and a high number for the other two, for what it's worth, so that there can't really be any complaints. Now, let's start with 3100 infected people from my scenario above. In one scenario, you have 100 idiots and 3000 people doing their absolute best. In the other scenario, you have 3100 people doing an okay-enough job: As you can see, idiots will effectively spread the disease at a completely uncontrolled rate that quickly dwarfs any other efforts. It takes a mere four incubation periods (so, like, a month) for 100 idiots to be responsible for far more cases than the 3000 sane people. Exponential growth is a right bastard. Having the whole population be marginally useful is better than having over 90% of the population working incredibly hard while the rest are complete morons. But that's a scenario where the two groups self segregate. Let's assume that the interactions between the sane and the idiots drastically change the numbers: the idiots now can only spread the disease at an R0 of 1.3 because of all the sane people, while the idiots bump the R0 for the sane people up to 0.6: That's much better, but it's still uncontained growth that exceeds that of a middling effort, and will eventually overwhelm any attempts to contain it. Worse still, having that population of morons weakens the resolve of those who are making the effort. Absent consequences that modify behaviour, free riders will ruin it for everyone else.
****ing hell. That’s not the answer I was expecting. Anyway, I’m still alive and so are you, so it can’t be all bad.
I know it will be a while before we are back to a proper normal, but I can't wait because we really are marooned on the Island. We are the lowest for Covid...partly because we are all lovely, law-abiding citizens and partly because there are fewer people leaving and coming to the Island. Ferries are fewer and harder to use (booking as a foot passenger, would you believe) and far costlier. As a pensioner it used to cost £9 off-peak, now £25 (unless you travel on a Saturday and book ahead). And browsing in Southampton's shops is less attractive now, so I haven't been to the Big Island since February. I feel like a Gibraltar ape....except no one brings me bananas.
Great news that he got his injection, but I am puzzled by him saying that he just phoned Guys Hospital and asked to be vaccinated. I am hoping that his phone call, to the hospital, was prompted by him having received notification from the NHS telling him to phone for an appointment, rather than it being a random decision made by him and a random decision, by the hospital, to invite him in. The interviewer should have asked about that, IMO, for clarity and to explain the priority system, which he was in.
The interviewer was foreign so wouldn't know the fine details, but the man was elderly (I rather liked him) and was probably in a priority group. However, I never think its worth getting bothered by such things...too many people live these days in a state of outrage alert. We'll all get there in the end.
Could be a bit of a windup going on there, I have been guilty myself from time to time. What I'd like to see as well as the vaccination programs is a comprehensive accurate and reliable test, trace and enforced isolation program in the UK, pan European and further together with more progress on treatments such as dexamethason which has been proven to save lives. This from the BBC 2nd Sept. research will have moved on https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52354520 . This is only the start of a recovery how these vaccines work best on which groups is ongoing research. The governments, authorities and institutions worldwide need constant scrutiny in their coronavirus strategy there's been unnecessary suffering, death and disruption. If I come over a grumpy old fart it may be due to the fact we're unable to travel to England for the funeral of a loved one. Not much, if any, forgiveness for the inept handling of the crisis here and in the UK.
Apparently there’s another £16 billion up for grabs in test and trace. This video is trying to garner support for it to go to the NHS which has a superior success rate, but the odds are it will probably disappear into the private sector companies that will give huge backhanders, I mean political donations to the Tory party. https://fb.watch/2j4o9isqcG/
Ongoing problems with test and trace, this article from April. This inept dishonest apology for a government has cost lives. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...virus-contact-tracing-opportunity-experts-say "The government has been accused of missing an opportunity after it failed to deploy 5,000 contact tracing experts employed by councils to help limit the spread of coronavirus."
Good news on CV-19 treatments. https://www.theguardian.com/science...-help-severe-cases?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Experts at Kings College London have created a “desktop vaccine production unit” that can create RNA vaccines at the rate of 30000 doses a day. The thought process was to create vaccines on demand for areas in the world that don’t have suitable freezers or fridges, in which to store vaccines that are temperature sensitive. Likewise they could be put into hospitals, anywhere, which would be a boon if the vaccination process needs repeating, depending on the longevity of the current vaccines. The machine hasn’t been ratified yet, but it is hoped to have been given the go ahead as early as March. There are some truly amazing things happening during this crisis.
Germany going into a lockdown over Xmas starting 16th December after disease spikes. Xmas shopping blamed. Not surprised if the crowds in London are anything to go by. Nothing would make me go into a shopping centre in a city.
Viruses do tend to be seasonal though don’t they? Expect it to surge pretty much everywhere in the Northern hemisphere regardless of what measures various governments impose.
Really? I thought it was chaos. Worst case being when I went into card factory and customers were literally crammed in like sardines with barely room to manoeuvre. Honestly, if I didnt catch covid yesterday (probably from card factory) I'll be surprised
In fairness I wasn't in for long but I expected the general crowds to be far bigger two weeks before Christmas. I did see the queue for card factory but didn't go in. Gonna try get the rest of my bits away from town. Hate going there at the best of times.
silly question: if it was mad in that shop, why did you go in? my wife is struggling to get the 2021 official Kylie calendar this year online and said she’s go into town to the calendar shop. Now Xmas is fecking ruined with sulking if I don’t get a Terry’s chocolate orange and a Kylie calendar... but even I’ve told her not to go there. It’s not worth the risk of spreading things further Oh by the way, it looks like I’ll be selling off some perfume, a ladies gillet and a couple of other bits on the cheap, IF I DON’T GET MY KYLIE CALENDAR
