You have a nerve accusing me of "uneducated waffle" when you post that the EU's citizens will be relatively unaffected by a no deal. There are predictions that the Irish economy could collapse for starters.
700,000 is something like 1 in 600 people (including kids, pensioners etc but I can’t be bothered to look up what the working population is). If we get away with only that level of impact then I’d be wrong. I think we’d agree no deal does us more damage than that though.
Yes, we can agree the worst effects of a no deal will be on UK and Ireland. But what you have to factor in, is that only the UK gets an advantage for the pain - sovereignty, independence, freedom - call it what you will The EU gets pain and loses a deep pocket
I think most people with more sympathy for the EU look beyond the last few weeks at the last four years and see that: the leave coalition in the UK had no agreed position on what it wanted; the leave campaign made inherently contradictory promises in the referendum; the May govt set out contradictory red lines; Tory MPs voted down the WA three times; the Tory party called two elections and changed PM once; Boris signed a deal he tried to rewrite a few months' later; and each UK administration has made a series of unrealistic asks in apparent oblivion that it is the far smaller negotiating party, with the other side, shock horror, holding most of the cards. The EU is not perfect, and has made plenty of mistakes, but the attempt to now blame it in fullness for this "failure of statecraft" is comical.
That’s true. Difficult to value and I appreciate it means a lot to some people. I suspect there are EU citizens who will be equally glad to be ‘free’ of English exceptionalism if we’re going to bring abstract emotion into it.
Yes, perhaps. But both sides need this deal and it will happen sooner or later. As I say, I think sooner, when both sides look over the edge of the infamous cliff
I always try and write something this eloquent and just end up calling arch-leavers ****s or Redwood a fish nonce. Fair play.
All that you say about the UK's history in this since 2016 is true. It's been incredibly painful getting to where we are. Equally, though, Barnier offered the UK a Canadian type deal early on, and this was later quietly withdrawn. A deal is 85% complete. We're down to the last three issues. The EU has been relying on Boris doing one of his, now famous, U turns. He won't. So the ball is in the EU's court. I feel there's a compromise there on all three issues if both sides look hard enough.
There are certainly frustrations on the EU side too - particularly expecting us to align to their future standards. They will also always prioritise their unity, sometimes at the expense not their economic interest, which is frustrating (although was predicted and predictable). Believe it or not I'd love the UK to get a brilliant deal, I'm a taxpayer here after all, it's just the realism of this I've always questioned. I'm not as confident Boris won't cave further. Same chap who said it would be "unfathomable" for their to be a border down the Irish Sea, only to sign up for a deal with a border down the Irish Sea soon after. He knows he can take the public with him through force of rhetoric and spin, especially given Labour are (wisely) choosing to sit out of the Brexit debate now. One way or the other, and I don't really care how, I just hope we get a deal now. Anyway, working to a few deadlines so won't spend all day on here, but wanted to at least try to show why many on here and beyond won't wholly blame the EU for this.
That is completely untrue Col. The Irish economy buy more goods from the UK than we sell to the UK. Only 14% of our exports go to the UK. We export more to Belgium. It is true to say, Ireland wanted a deal but not at all costs. It would have made our life easier especially with the border but also for day to day free trade with our neighboring island. The country worst affected will be the UK by far. 50% of your trade is with the EU. EU trade with the UK is only 12%. As the only English speaking country left in the EU, we will prosper enormously from Foreign Direct Investment. In the second quarter 2020, Ireland received the highest FDI of any country in the world. With a pro-EU Irish-American U.S. President about to be sworn in, our share of American FDI into the EU will only increase. I think a no deal is bad for all of us and prices will increase. I'm hoping to buy a new car in the new year. I normally buy a Toyota which is made in Sunderland. Will the price increase by 10% due to tariffs if no deal? If so, I will have to look at a brand with no additional tariffs.
A completely lop-sided view from the remain angle, as is nearly always the case on both sides. Imo, the EU have never negotiated with any intention other than to punish us, as they promised from the start. Anyway, we will inevitably go over all the old arguments again. No point, as we're all pretty entrenched in our views. I completely agree that the UK, especially before Boris became PM have completely ****ed things up, especially May, who was a lying waste of space. Fault on both sides looks like producing a whole lot of pain, which could have been avoided imo.
I'm just going on what's been widely reported that the Irish government were starting to panic. I really hope those reports are wrong mate and that you're right.
Members of the ERG have been spouting this line since the Brexit vote thinking Ireland might cave in and may put pressure on the EU to agree a deal at any cost. The response from this island has always been, leave if you wish but you can't have jam on both sides of your bread. In other words, if the rules of the EU are not respected and if the Good Friday Agreement is threatened in any way, you can't have tariff free entry into the EU market of 440m people. As I said, we will all suffer so a no deal is not good for anybody.
Boris tried to get a phone call with Macron and Merkle this morning (according to at least two news outlets) and both declined to accept his call. As they said the deals were being done through EU negotiators, not with individual countries Reminded me of that bit from Monty Python
I was deliberately lop sided on this one given there seems to be a narrative emerging that no deal would all be down to EU intransigence. It always takes two to tango and there is blame to apportion on both sides - how much goes one way or the other is where we could waste time arguing, but agree that it's pointless. And hopefully all a moot point when we get a deal!!
