It's not often the bookies price things up incorrectly but where Leeds are concerned they have a blind spot. That will be probably be corrected in the coming weeks, but any Leeds fan worth his salt could have looked at our line ups for the last two games and known that winning would be difficult. Leicester @ 7/4 & Crystal Palace @ 2/1 were both excellent opportunites. However before everyone starts lumping on Leeds to lose we should be a different proposition in a couple of weeks with Phillips, Rodrigo, Raphinha & Llorente hopefully all available. You gave us the heads up when Everton went to Southampton and I should have listened and lumped on....local and historical knowledge is key
When you are emotional you are incapable of being rational. As I’m emotional about Saints it makes no sense for me to bet on or against them, as I can’t assess their chances rationally. The time to get emotional about betting is after you win. You should never get emotional when you lose, btw. Take it like a man. Even if you are not a man. Women should never bet, they’re too emotional (@pompeymeowth to confirm)
When I was betting more regularly I bet on/against Saints all the time. It’s the team I know best so why wouldn’t I?
On Saints or betting in general? Most profitable season(s) were the early ones in the PL, we were big under dogs against some average teams so tended to do well. Was similar the first 10 games or so of the Championship season when we got promoted. Bookies aren’t thick so cottoned on pretty quickly that year but the PL markets are a whole different kettle of fish and are swayed far more by punters money, and punters tend to be thick
I think it's really hard to get value in the PL, because it's the league everyone knows, so the market is seldom way out. In the lower leagues, there are more price anomalies, and more unpredictable events that actually aren't that unpredictable. I very rarely bet on football anyway. Much prefer the horses. If a football team is 5/1, it's got no ****ing chance, whereas 5/1 winners on the horses aren't that hard to find.
Only ever really bet on horses on the big festivals or the (very rare nowadays) times I get a tip off of someone who actually knows what they’re on about. You are right about the PL but I do think value can be found usually betting against the big teams due to how much cash goes on them. I remember winning a lot when Saints played Chelsea when Rafa was in charge and Chelsea were ****. Saints were something like 7/2 at home to them because people still lump on big teams regardless. One guy who used to give me horse tips pretty regularly sent me a picture of his lucky15 this weekend. 18/1, 11/1, 16/1 and 14/1 selections. All won and the **** obviously sent me it after they had won
