http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/15152030.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/eng_prem/predictor/default.stm Infact after 12 games were in 4th. And being biased tottenham 14th And after 19games (results permitting) 1,Man u 44 2,Asenal 41 - 20, tottenham After 38 Man u chelsea man citey Arsenal tottenha Liverpool And again the 3 W's in the relegation. On a serious note we still finish in the top four and tottenham are 3points behind us with liver pool loosing 4th down to goal difference. Do what you will with the predictor my results from games i think we can, infact keep us up in 4th place....
Loving that optimism, 34 points from the next 12 games Given you've got 11 from the last 12, that's quite a turnaround!
As stated i mentioned joking aside. The point of the thread was for people to do a predictor and it would still have us in the top 8 unlike what Dixon mentioned.
If Arsenal go on at this rate, it will be bottom half rather than top 8. I cannot see how the gunners will get 3 points in any away match with that defense. Even if they win all their home matches, they could get around 60-67 points from 38 games, which may put them 7th-8th if they are lucky.
I applaud your optimism Steevee but I doubt if this is a very realistic proposition. Top 8 could be but it relies on who we buy and how early we secure these players in the January transfer window but Top 4 is out of the question. We can barely hold a defensive line and what happens when our forwards fire blanks? It happens to all teams you know and if you simply consider the opposition around us, let alone the Top 3, we do not have the capability in personnel and this is also down to injuries but more so in tactical terms. If we give away at the back what we score up front, we won't get very far
Worst comes to worst 6th we will finish with Man u, Chelsea, Man city, tottenham and liverpool ahead of us.
I would like to share at least your optimism Robin but we will need to improve our results by some margin just to get that far. The average number of points for a 6th place finish is 60. Over the years dating back to The Invincibles, the range has been between 56 to 64. I think that the higher one aims, the better one will fare. To get even 60 points means we have to obtain 53 points from the remaining 31 matches, an average of 1.709 points per match. Our average over the past six months is 1.055. We have by coincidence scored 606 points over all the seasons from 2003/04 to 2010/11, making our average points per season to be 76 or 2 points per match but we now have a very much weaker team with a loss of form that spans half a season, leaving our average at just over 1 point per match so it may not be that easy. With our reduced strength team, we need to improve our results by over 70% in the remaining 31 games of the season just to make the 60 points for a Top 6 place. If our average performance has dropped by 25% then at 1.5 points per match over this season, we won't make Top 6. We really need to have a performance level within at least 20% of our 8 yearly average. What we do between now and May is crucial as is who we buy or keep in January. As importantly, with some of our key players namely Sagna, Vermaelen and to a lesser extent Wilshire being out of action through this period, the players will have even more ground to make up in the months after january since it is likely that more points will be dropped in the interim.
I still think top 8 is possible. Even top 6 is possible if we buy a top class playmaker in January ( which we don't, of course).
You mean, Arsene won't buy a top class playmaker in January? I would have thought the need couldn't be more obvious but with Arsene, anything is possible. And remember he needs to decide quickly too which seems an impossibility these days.
I applaud you on the amount of stats you have in your argument but can you see any team other than them finishing above us? Stoke? Newcastle? Aston Villa? I don't view it that way.
Why thank you Robin for your kind words. Truth be known, I rather enjoy statistics. Tell you a funny story. I was in church one morning some yrs back and noticed in an instant that the 3 hymn numbers displayed added up to a total of 66_ , yes you can guess........ please log in to view this image I would say that statistics only show that which has occurred. It shows fact and reveals form but as we all know, form can change. If we triumph over Sunderland, Stoke and perhaps even Chelsea, then that form will change as will these stats. Regards
