Any time I get a winner is worth a boom! I remember my own lone eagle, municiple course in Bolton, 1983, never been repeated! Or even close!
The Dewhurst looks open and several of them have met already this season. Starting with the Mill Reef won by Alkumait, we see a race that has tended to be won by sprinters and both the winner and Fivethousandtoone, who was runner up, have to face an extra furlong and soft ground here and they meet the best of the 7F horses into the bargain. I can't back either of them, with early collateral signs from the Mill Reef not looking good anyway. The National Stakes saw Thunder Moon take a massive leap forward from his winning debut. He quickened up really well in a messy race where Lucky Vega was deemed unlucky. Lucky Vega was beaten fair and square dropped back to 6F next time behind Supremacy and both Wembley and St Marks Basilica seemed to improve massively in filling the placings behind Thunder Moon that day. Master Of The Seas was said to have had a hard race in the National Stakes and he misses today's contest because of that. Only 4th in the National Stakes after having hit the front and looking like he might win it, the form is a little hard to assess with Master Of The Seas earlier form not panning out as well as you would have hoped for. Thunder Moon quickened well and Wembley also came from the back in good style for second, so can either of them repeat that on softer ground? St Marks Basilica was aimed very highly quite early but the run in the National Stakes seemed to finally justify the faith but I find his profile mixed and I would be disappointed to see him emerge as the leading 7F colt here. Chindit is unbeaten and he is supposed to have sparkled like no other on the Hannon gallops recently. It was said by the trainer that it has been years since one of theirs worked so well at home. The ground is a question mark though and he seems weak at 4/1 now, having briefly been 5/2 Fav earlier in the week. There has to be hope that Albasher can reverse form with Chindit after only going down by a length last time but he's weak at 14/1 today. Etonian has done little wrong so far and is 2/2. His form is not at the level of the best of these yet but he made quite a taking debut at Sandown, winning by more than 3 lengths and 5 winners have come from that race. He followed up at the same track next time well enough and if he handles the soft he must have some shout at 14/1 today. Cadillac was an easy winner last time and he's well supported today. His debut was stunning but he slipped up on his 2nd start when beaten by a Bolger colt. The soft ground seemed to be the explanation for the poor run that day and he faces that surface again now, which has to be a concern. In the end I took a chance with Etonian as a colt who could have more to come and is a backable price. Maybe he won't be up to it but there are questions everywhere really. 2.55 Newmarket Etonian 14/1
Kyprios never went a yard. Surely O'Brien has better that he could have sent? His future looks over the sticks based on this run. No doubt the 1-2 will be uprated but it seemed a weak Zetland.
Watching Ryan Moore ride Van Gogh, I don’t know how he keeps his job. His tactical nous is hopeless- yet again! I’m relieved I didn’t back that horse. Added to that, he’s poor out of the gate and is showing the poorest return of his career in the past ten or twelve years- only about 17% for the past three years, riding for a top stable. He’s strong in a finish- reminiscent of Willie Carson- but I just don’t see what other attributes people rave about.
Paul Nicholls has had 11 runners so far in the 2 days at Chepstow - 7 winners, 3 seconds and a fourth
The National Stakes dominated the Dewhurst but in reverse order this time. As someone who backed St Marks Basilica on debut only to see him beaten it is puzzling to me that he wins the Dewhurst. Fast tracked to the Phoenix Stakes and Group 1 class after being beaten in a maiden looked an ambitious plan, yet St Marks Basilica went off favourite for the race but was 5th in a race won comprehensively by Lucky Vega. That Phoenix has thrown up a largely disappointing set of results since but St Marks Basilica did go on to win his maiden as expected at odds-on next time. His 3rd in the National Stakes was a big step forward and he has made another move forward today, making it look like he his improved for being stepped up in distance from sprint trips. It bodes well for him if he can improve again for the step up to a mile. I wasn't a good race for Hannon. He seemed to have some promising sorts coming in but Etonian was never travelling and came under the cosh early. Chindit looked to have traffic problems but simply wasn't good enough in the end, failing to confirm form with Albasheer from their last meeting. Alkumait was a typical Mill Reef winner who failed when upped in trip. Fivethousandtoone easily gained revenge this time, with the Treggoning horse coming home stone last and ran a decent race considering the conditions. Cadillac has to be given credit for a good effort on the ground and will be a threat when racing on a better surface. Devilwala casts a shadow over the form just a neck behind in 4th place at 100/1. Only 7th in the Mill Reef, he has wildly turned the form around with Alkumait from that race and his previous 2nd in the Gimcrack hadn't suggested 7F would be his game but he has run a corker today while adding a query to the form. Tactical has looked an early season type who would get foung out as the season progressed and that seemed comfirmed further today. Regarding the 2000 Guineas, Battleground has solidified his standing simply by not running again. Thunder Moon was pushed out, while St Matks Basilica is challenging for favourite in several lists. Going back to the National Stakes, I still feel that Master Of The Seas looked likely to win that race entering the final furlong but he faded late on. The three who were ahead of him that day have finished 1-2-3 today and the winner only beat him half a length in the National Stakes. Still plenty of time for matters to change between now and 1/5/2021 and Master Of The Seas has scope for more after only 3 career starts. His National Stakes run is now littered with Group 1 winners and horses with Group 1 form.
I did expect that and never fancied Chindit for the Guineas, as indicated in earlier posts. These (highlighted) were my 2 selections for the race today. I expected St Marks Basilica to reverse the form with Thunder Moon in this ground, especially with Frankie on board. Having spotted him at 33/1 for the Guineas prior to the Dewhurst, I think, had I backed him, I would now lay that off for a free bet. However, my other spot, Albasheer at 25/1, is unchanged and not sure how he would have fared on better ground
