Apart from 2 of the greatest fillies in European history winning 4 of the last 7, and Golden Horn in between them, there havent been many great winners recently. Its rarely run at a false pace either. Bait at best, nonsense at worst.
Looking back to Mogul's win over C&D. In the history of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, only 3 horses have broken the 2min 25s Peintre Celebre (1997), Danedream (2011) and Found (2016). Obviously the going has had a significant effect on times and better horses have won in slower times. Over the same C&D in the Grand Prix de Paris, only Scorpion had broken the barrier (in 2005 when the distance was upped to 2400 m) - until Mogul broke it this year (8.51 secs faster than Anthony Van Dyck 95mins later - a 4yo carrying the same weight) I'm fully aware that we can't compare times over the years but it seems reasonable, given the ground conditions when Dandream scooted away with the Arc in what was then a record time, to consider Mogul's performance as being pretty much equal to that of Danedream's (better if you take account of the extra 9lb carried by Mogul) . That said it would put Mogul in with an excellent chance on similar ground. However, the ground won't be the same, or anything like it. So how will Mogul fare on soft ground? He has encountered ground softer than good just once, when beaten 4¾L Pyledriver ay Ascot in June. Pyledriver asserted his authority again (by 4l) on good ground at York, in August but that race was run in 3.17s slower than standard. Mogul's performance at Longchamp in a faster run race was a big step up and we are left with 3 major questions when assessing his chance on Sunday: 1. Has he just reached his peak in time for the Arc? 2. Did he have too hard a race just prior to the Arc? 3. Can he reproduce that Grand Prix de Paris form on soft ground? His odds of 20/1 assumes he can't reproduce that form on soft ground, because the German horse, In Swoop (who he beat decisively in the Grand Prix de Paris) who, it is claimed,will appreciate the softening ground is 2 points shorter. However, on soft ground In Swoop was beaten by Gold Trip in June: albeit somewhat unlucky, that is not form that supports the theory about his ground preference. If Serpentine is supplemented (never raced on ground softer than good - except on debut a year ago when 16l 10th of 11), what is AOB's plan? Is it to ensure a fast pace? if so, for who? Does he feel he can win it? Several of the others have some good form in the book but have question marks over the ground and/or the distance. I hate question marks. It either means you can rule them out or we hear after winning that she/he has been crying out for 12f and/or soft ground With Gosden and AOB both having strong hands, possible dark horses (eg Persian King) and the ground turning up soft (or even heavy) this looks a nightmare from a betting perspective I would love Enable to win this but I couldn't burden her with my money, especially at the price and it may come up heavy. We could be in for another upset this year. If pushed I think I would have to have a very small interest on Straddy and Mogul
Desperation at it's worst Oddy. Another season of second rate plodders throwing themselves over stuff on courses that are, for the most part, little more than goat tracks. Wonderful.
Telecaster is out of the Arc after a setback. The horse was an impressive winner last time but it was a weak affair, where the second favourite ran well below par and he went on to finish much closer behind Anthony Van Dyck and Stradivarius next time. I've been nibbling away at Enable all season and she is generally 7/4 now but I am not super confident after what happened last year. To be fair to the filly she has had a more trouble free run into this year's contest but initially I felt she was workmanlike last time at Kempton, however, Frankie explained that the surface was a bit odd that day and that Enable could not move on it in her normal style, making it look harder work. The trainer maintains faith that she retains her ability and it is hard to imagine a more rag-tag bunch outside of Love and with the ground likely to be against the Champion 3YO filly, the 6YO Mare has had plenty of pieces falling into place for an attempt at the unique 3rd win in the race and then set a future Trivial Pursuit question about which horse prevented Enable from doing four in a row. Stradivarius is clear third favourite with Magical removed from the betting now. The elephant in the room with him is the distance. He's unbeaten at distances in excess of 2 miles, on any surface but is 0/2 at 12F. Ground wise his only defeat on good to firm came behind Ghaiyyath in the Coronation Cup. On Soft ground he is 3/4 but all of those wins were at two miles. On good ground Stradivarius is 4/5 but again all of those wins were at 2 miles. Bizarrely, on good to soft going the Champ is 0/5 and that is clearly because those were occasions where he was well short of, or slightly short of the two mile trip. I just can't see him winning over this 12F and even if it were bottomless ground, his trademark finishing kick that has seen him pick up late to sometimes win narrowly would surely be blunted. He looks poor value at 7/1. The inevitable scrambling around for each-way alternatives is happening, with Sottsass and In Swoop popular. Even Japan is nibbled to 25/1 in places. I see no value in any of them at the odds. In a sort of Big Brother speak, Aidan has said that the ground is not an advantage for Love. He clearly means that it is softer than he would want. He believes she is a stronger filly now and that this might help offset that. Impressive in the Classics but there isn't a good filly you could point to as a boost for her form. The Oaks in particular looked woeful and runner up Ennistymon is receding towards a 100 rated filly, last seen as beaten favourite to the tune of 9 lengths in a Group 3 and that was exactly the distance she was beaten at Epsom. The winner that day came in rated 100 and horses rated in the 90's and even 86 finished ahead of the Oaks 2nd. Most punters hate ante-post betting but it looked essential this year because of the high likelihood that come the day of the race there would be little juice in Enable or Love and you might end up backing something that you don't really have a strong fancy for but you want to have some sort of price. I might have a saver on Love if she hits 3/1 but will probably just leave it to Enable and hope she can create some history.
Make no mistake, for overall quality this is a poor Arc De Triomphe, especially from a French perspective. We don’t know how Love will cope with testing ground but her genuineness and resolution are admirable qualities- and she will need to win to be rated exceptional. Enable is a great mare, but it may be a case of “going to the well once too often.” To my mind, on soft ground you have to fear Stradivarius, and it’s a big mistake to discount the chances of classy stayers with a turn of foot. I’ve only backed two Ascot Gold Cup winners in the Arc- Levmoss and Westerner, and both ran great races. Both Love and Enable will need to be at their best to turn Stradivarius over, and Peslier is the ideal jockey to get the best out of him. If he shows around 10/1 on the pari mutuel, then I’ll have a go with a good each way bet.
Going at Longchamp is currently very soft after 2.8mm of rain last night. More rain is forecast for this afternoon and evening with cloud thinning at night. Looking at the forecast for the weekend there is rain forecast for most of Saturday and for the morning and afternoon on Sunday. It is going to be very soft for the Arc unless something dramatic changes. I can't agree that Peslier is the ideal jockey for Stradivarius. Frankie Dettori knows the horse inside out and has intimate knowledge of what makes him tick and a jockey climbing on board for the first time is not going to have that advantage. For me it is a clear negative that the regular pilot is not on board. Andrea Atzeni is the only other jockey to have sat on Stradivarius in the last three years and that was only for one race. Not sure if I will bet on many of the other races at Longchamp this weekend. I want to take Earthlight on because I don't think he achieved much in beating Tropbeau last time. The filly won the French Guineas trial but didn't seem to stay in the Classic itself and she has not progressed much, if anything this season. I think Earthlight has been a good bit short of his 2YO form thus far and looks a poor price in the Foret. The trouble is finding which one to take him on with. Safe Voyage has been as good as ever this year and is a real 7F horse with 10 of his 12 wins coming at the trip. He has some form on soft and heavy, so should not be bothered too much. I would rather take 7/1 Safe Voyage than 7/4 Earthlight, I don't think the Fabre horse deserves to be a quarter of the price the Quinn horse is.
Given that Dettori, has chosen to ride Enable, how you feel Peslier’s booking is a negative is beyond me. He’s a top class rider whose experience of Longchamp is second to none. Stradivarius is straightforward and doesn’t need Dettori, if he’s good enough.
You can put a top winning jockey on a horse and the horse will not perform but, when a truly good empathetic rider sits on a truly good horse, there will be no disadvantage. Same applies in top level show jumping where absolute understanding and precision is required. "Four previous Group 1 call-ups for Olivier Peslier No wonder John Gosden and Bjorn Nielsen turned to Olivier Peslier. He has plenty of form for answering the call from a British trainer needing a Group 1 jockey and then delivering success. High-Rise 1998 With Frankie Dettori required for Godolphin filly Cape Verdi in the Derby, Luca Cumani turned to Peslier for Lingfield Derby Trial winner High-Rise, who quickened smartly to triumph by a hard-fought head at Epsom, while Cape Verdi finished ninth. Cockney Rebel 2007 Peslier got the call-up from Geoff Huffer and had an introductory gallop on the colt in Newmarket before returning to the Rowley Mile a week later to land the 2,000 Guineas, bringing the 25-1 shot from last to first on the stands' side. He followed up in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh three weeks later. Harbinger 2010 Ryan Moore rode the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Harbinger in each of his first eight starts but deserted him for Derby-winning stablemate Workforce in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, where he could only watch in wonder as the odds-on favourite was completely eclipsed behind the mightily impressive 11-length winner. Sans Frontieres2010Peslier took the mount on the Jeremy Noseda-trained stayer for the first time in the Irish St Leger and gave him a confident ride, defying worries about soft ground at the Curragh to give owner Sir Robert Ogden his first Group 1 success."
Wouldn’t rule him out running into a place. Would be a bit disappointed if he won. Well, not disappointed with Stradivarius, but with the rest of the field.
So far Arc weekend is looking more notable for absentees, mostly because of expected conditions. Just six are left in Saturday’s Prix Chaudenay (there is a second supplementary stage today), Enbihaar has defected from Saturday’s Prix de Royallieu leaving twelve, of the nine left in the Prix Du Cadran there are no British contenders and two Irish; and Motamarris has been left in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein by Freddie Head so eight go to post for the Prix Dollar. Serpentine was the only horse added to the Arc field that has now been reduced to sixteen probables: Persian King, Royal Julius, Way To Paris, Japan, Sovereign, Stradivarius, Sottsass, Enable, Deirdre, Gold Trip, Chachnak, In Swoop, Mogul, Serpentine, Raabihah and Love. Fourteen, headed by Battaash, remain in the Prix de l’Abbaye, fifteen in the Prix de la Forêt and sixteen in the Prix de l’Opéra. It is notable that a number of horses remain engaged in the latter race that are also entered in the Sun Chariot on Saturday at Newmarket, so that could carve up by Sunday.
Assessing Persian King I keep hearing goodish vibes about Persian King. Apparently Fabre said last year Enable will bump into Persian King next year. It is very strange that Persian King has not been tried over 12f before the Arc. Could this be the plot of the century? Form over 8f+ Beaten 2l by Sottsass over 1m2½f. on good ground in a very fast time Beat Stormy Antarctic over 9f on good ground in a fast time Form on ground soft/heavy ground 8f heavy - won in a very fast time for the ground (Longchamp) 8f heavy - btn 8¾L Palace Pier 8-13 in decent time Recent form 8f good - beat Pinatubo, Circus Maximus and Siskin Pedigree The pedigree is very mixed so not sure it tells us much On the sire side, Kingman was a miler, Green Desert didn't stay in the Derby, Kris was essentially a miler but further back we have 2 exceptional Arc winners in Dancing Brave and Mill Reef, plus 2 Derby winners in Sir Ivor and The Minstrel On the dam side we have another Arc winner in Dylan Thomas, going back to Ribot on her sire line and on her dam line we have some great milers in Giant's Causeway, Lear Fan and Habitat and another Derby winner, Roberto There is some stamina in there mixed with specialist milers. Although mixed there is plenty of class in the pedigree Conclusion The fact that when (for the only time) stepped up to within 1.5f of the Arc distance he was beaten 2l by Sottsass in a very fast time (over 5secs fast) would suggest that if the pace isn't too strong he could be the fastest in the field (apart from Sottsass). His recent form shows he is not short of class. The fact that he finished 8l behind Palace Pier in heavy ground might suggest he isn't so happy on heavy ground. It's difficult to see why he should reverse the form with Sottsass, who doesn't seem to mind it soft but was beaten by Enable last year in very soft. So we have Straddy who will need a strong gallop to stand any chance and Persian King who (I think) will not want a strong gallop on this ground. You know what to do Olivier
I thought I explained it quite clearly. No other jockey has been on Stradivarius for two years. Dettori has been on him the last 12 times and there is surely a relationship between horse and jockey over that period of continuity. It wouldn't matter who is replacing Frankie, it's just that the partnership has been broken after two years together. I wouldn't say Stradivarius is straightforward because he sometimes takes time to prevail in a battle that does not reflect the short-odds he was and he wins by less distance than his official rating would suggest he should. Half of his 16 wins have been by a length or less and that's not far in races of two miles or more, where you would expect superiority to be reasonably evident. Stradivarius's best asset has always been his toughness and determination to win, He has ground out wins when he has seemed to be in trouble in the closing stages. The owner has mentioned Stradivarius's turn of foot but I think that is relative to the speed of the opposition. Quickening past one-paced horses in a 20F Gold Cup is different to trying to match Oaks winners and former Arc winners over a mile shorter. Peslier is a top jockey and a very experienced man at the track but he has never ridden the horse before and he is not coming onboard to replace Frankie in a race where the horse is running at his normal distance. You can't compare riding a multiple Gold Cup winner in his favourite race, with riding him in a race a full mile shorter. Hand on heart, I am sure the connections of Stradivarius would have preferred Frankie to be on board and I am sure the majority of punters would also echo that sentiment. No disrespect to Peslier, it would have been the same for any jockey who had never ridden the horse before. It is rare in flat horse racing for a horse and jockey to have such a clear and extended partnership and I would have thought that the rapport meant something. Good luck with Stradivarius, he's a brilliant horse but I would have thought that he would have been contesting Arc's before now if it had really been his ball game. If he was to win this one there would surely be bittersweet thinking that he could have bagged another one or two.
Can't dispute that He'd never ridden Harbinger before Yes of course but no way would Frankie get off Enable Maybe. I can't see him winning but I'm sure he will give a very good account of himself. Any horse who can win Gold Cups and get within 5l of Ghaiyyath over 10f on fast ground must be very versatile. He is also sired by Derby and Arc winner STS out of a mare by French Derby winner (and close second to Dancing Brave in the same year's Arc). It wouldn't be the biggest surprise
“Quickening past one-pacedhorses in a 20F Gold Cup is different to trying to match Oaks winners andformer Arc winners over a mile shorter.” So how do you explain that, in 1976, the Ascot Gold Cup winner broke the six furlongs track record during the last 6 furlongs of his victory? That’s hardly one paced, is it? And when Levmoss won the Arc , he set the fastest winning time since the Arc was founded 50 years previously. That’s not too one paced, either.
Another thing I would say Grendel, although I know you don't need telling, superiority isn't necessarily gauged by winning distance. Petite Etoile was famous for winning by the shortest distance Piggott dare risk. Sea The Stars didn't exactly beat much by far until the Arc. He was clearly far superior than the distances by which he kept beating xxxx (sorry forgot the name - old age you know)
