27th September update; The numbers continue to look very grim. The second wave is building in many European countries, though remarkably Italy, which suffered so badly early this year, seems to have infection rates firmly under control. Belgium, Portugal and Sweden are also apparently on top of their virus control efforts. If the numbers are to be believed, Spain is also getting infection rates under control. This means infection rates in the UK are now the second highest in Europe. Another sobering thought is the fatality rate in the UK; On August 9th the way the 24 hour fatality count in the UK was changed. Rates of around 70-80 per day suddenly dropped to single figures. Now we are seeing 30 to 40 people per day being counted as Coronavirus fatalities in the UK, even by the new lower method of counting. That suggests the number of Coronavirus fatalities according to the old method of counting is somewhere around 200-250 per day. Under the new counting method, anybody who dies more than 28 days after being diagnosed with COVID19 is not counted as a Coronavirus fatality, even if Coronavirus is on their death certificate as the cause. Medical advances are probably enabling hospitals to keep seriously ill virus patients alive for longer, as well as saving more lives.
I heard on the BBC TV news this morning that some Police officers were injured while forcibly dispersing a large anti-lockdown demonstration in Trafalgar Square. There does not seem to be a link to this story on the BBC website. I'm saddened to hear of this kind of thing, but I suppose it was inevitable. A large number of people who were probably right behind the measures needed during the first lockdown have become disillusioned and no longer trust the Government. Evil conspiracy anarchists online have also been spreading fake news poison, and the wider public is beginning to soak it up. Apparently there were banners calling for Bill Gates to be arrested, denials that Coronavirus even exists, and Q-Anon logos. It's still only a fringe of mentally weak, or very frightened folk who are being radicalised to join these violent demonstrations. But their numbers are growing. I think it's going to be a long, bleak winter before we get a vaccine out there and begin to really beat this pandemic next year.
They believe this sh1t. Bill Gates wants to control the world by microchipping everybody via a vaccine. Covid 19 is caused by 5G masts. Alternatively there is no Covid19, it's an international conspiracy to control the masses.George Soros is in on it, as well as everyone at the BBC. Not to mention London's underground tunnel network full of trafficked children, with George Clooney something to do with it. Never mind, Superman Trump will create a New World Order and rid the world of *****philes after the November election. Ever seen Invasion of the Body-snatchers?
Some hypocricy. Covid-19 deaths: 42,000 Obesity deaths 2019: 42,000 Smoking deaths 2019: 73,000 Why are we not banning the sale of cigarettes, or shutting down fast food outlets. Whilst the tax from tobacco sales actually covers medical care for smokers, obesity costs the NHS £1million per hour. In addtion, two thirds of all police time is taken up with alcohol related crimes. £23 billion pound a year spent on treatment, law enforcement and managing the social carnage. A twenty mph speed limit would save 2,000 lives and 28,000 serious injuries a year, but like the above is seen as an acceptable risk.
I think the main difference in the case of obesity and smoking is that these are seen (rightly or wrongly) as voluntary illnesses. Lifestyle choices. Things that people inflict on themselves. Alcohol and driving (white vans and expensive 4x4 utility vehicles) contribute much to the economy - as does gambling. There is no direct contribution to the economy (as in taxes) to be had from Coronavirus. Indeed it is harmful to the economy, as it makes people less inclined to spend on leisure activities of most kinds. And it costs huge amounts to treat people who fall seriously ill with it, and it prevents NHS resources going to others who are ill with cancer, heart disease etc. The virus also makes many industries inefficient to run, so again cutting revenue from them.
Speaking as someone who has used the London public transport system throughout (as Elf’s can verify), I’d say you have 3 distinct types of Covid awareness. 85% are wearing their masks, acting sensibly on public transport, and getting on with life as best they can 10% - and I’m not going to make generalisations here, although some could definitely be made - blatantly don’t wear masks, even on the now busy Tube. A weird 5% board public transport dressed in apparatus resembling a f ucking bee keeper’s outfit. They can barely move, they have so much protective kit on. They then take their moral superiority and sit near to someone not wearing a mask, and start an argument. I’ve seen this happen a few times now, including again today. It’s bound to end in violence soon. This pandemic has bred a new generation of Dot Cottons.
The fear is greater than the risk as Covid is 25th on the list of causes of death in the UK. New Zealand is closed to everybody, completely isolated from the world, and with tourism their mainstay, they are in big trouble long term.
I count myself fortunate I don't have to use public transport, as I really dislike having to wear a face mask. I do wear one when I'm shopping at the supermarket, but that's it for me. Unless somebody without a mask (where they should be wearing one) is also behaving in a dumb, inconsiderate manner, I will always give them the benefit of the doubt. We all know people who suffer from Asthma or other breathing related troubles. I'd certainly never lecture anybody about it.
It's not just the deaths, it's the pressure on the NHS, and now long-term Covid. It doesn't help that we're an unhealthy nation, whereas Sweden, who had no lockdown, are comparatively much healthier, and look as though they will come out of it rather well long-term.
I've been studying and comparing the maths of viruses. The Chinese flu 1969 was deadly in the UK with 80,000 fatalities, but other countries faired better because H1N1 had been prevelent the year before, so almost a vaccine. The Spanish flu 1918 cam:e in three waves, changing it's target group everytime. Unlike other viruses, Covid seems stable and with pure logic. Immagine a virus as an exam paper. There are six questions, and they are to do with evolution and the balance of nature. What is your carbon footprint.. Can you reproduce. What is the state of your physical / mental health. How strong is your will to live. Are you productive. Are you evolutionary in thought. I'm in my mid seventies, but could give a positive answer to all six questions. My Covid experience was one day feeling rough, and sporadic breathlessness.
I think 'Evolution' is often misunderstood. As I understand it, evolution is nothing more than a consequence of natural selection. One of only two consequences - the other being extinction. Natural selection itself is often misunderstood as well. As I understand it, natural selection is not an alternative to the religious concept of God. Natural selection is not an all-powerful, undeniable force. It is merely the name we give to the consequences upon living things of circumstances and conditions acting on the physical world. The only chains that bind us are the ones we forge for ourselves. In my view Humanity is no more a slave of natural selection than it is a creation and property of a divine being. We react to changes in conditions, as all living things do. But among all living things we have evolved the ability to see beyond the immediate, which is a unique quality. Circumstances and conditions (Coronavirus in this case) are affecting our world now. What we choose to do about it is entirely up to us. There are no limits to the possibilities except those we place upon ourselves through conventions and traditions and dogma.
Great post, Lardy, maybe we need a philosophy thread? One or two comments; Darwin's theory of evolution may have to be updated. Some people, including myself, believe that natural selection is only part of the evolutionary cycle, the other part being that early character and knowledge-forming experiences can also be passed on genetically. This would explain some complexities, for instance the ever-changing tactics in the war between the cuckoo and the host upon whom it imposes its eggs. Look it up if you are interested. We have the ability to see beyond the immediate, but we also have the ability to close our eyes when we don't like what we see there. I'd also say there are limits, which can be just sheer bloody bad luck. As Modesty Blaise said, "It's better to be lucky than good".
The only chains that bind us are the ones we forge for ourselves. In my view Humanity is no more a slave of natural selection than it is a creation and property of a divine being. We react to changes in conditions, as all living things do. But among all living things we have evolved the ability to see beyond the immediate, which is a unique quality. THIS! I sometimes feel lonely with the way I think, the above gives me comfort. Cheers Lardi.
Returning to the Covid debate, I always thought that because of human indiscipline and the ability we have to travel worldwide, that we couldn't avoid herd immunity, and although the lastest positive tests suggest a second wave, I believe it is in fact automatic herd immunity as deaths are not relating to test numbers.
Several studies have shown that about 8% of the population have the antibodies. In the second wave care homes, which accounted for a high proportion of deaths, are more prepared this time. More of the people who are getting Covid are young people who don't get killed by it, although they are susceptible to Long Covid.
There are many countries in the world where plague, famine and natural disasters are a part of life. We in the west do not observe this on a daily basis and sit smug in our nanny states where nearly everything is taken care of. We have money, resources and a false sense of importance, so when Covid comes calling we cannot accept it as part of a natural process and cry "No not us" although in basics terms the human race are also a virus, but unlike Viruses, we break all the rules. There is one statistic that makes a mockery of every action we and our Government have made. The average life span in the UK is 81 years, the average age of Covid victims is 82.
