Bit disappointing from Zabeel Queen there, she found precious little at the business end. Not the first Varian inmate by any means to fail to live up to the hype and it remains a fact that the trainer hasn't really broken through as a Classic winner that chimes with the quality of horse he gets to train. Indigo Girl had looked quite dour on debut and it was similar today, with the ability to gallop there in abundance. Dubai Fountain ran a solid race in second and offers a pretty good yardstick. That said, it is probably at best a Group 3 yardstick. Probably the Fillies Mile for Indigo Girl next as I doubt they would go to France in the current Covid climate. Her first RPR was just 82 and she has probably improved to over 100 today and improved about 20 lbs. Nothing to stop her building on that next season, if not this one. Star Of Emaraaty was top rated coming in on 102 but I was suspect of that race where she was 66/1. A preview had stated it was not a fluke win but given that one of the joint favourites was fatally injured during the race I cannot see how anyone could take the form 100% to face value and Dubai Fountain reversed the form today. Ubuntu never really got into it and the betting suggested as much. I just didn't like the look of that Flame Of Tara and Ubuntu has run miles below the RPR awarded for that race and good luck to that Bolger filly who went up 11 lbs for her run there. A couple of quid lost at 33/1 was better than wading it at 6/5, which was the price she should have been if she had already demonstrated superior form, which was not the case.
Have to say I preferred the Hannon filly in that Ascot maiden, Snow Lantern, she was a bit clueless early and ran on relentlessly, id have fancied her to beat the winner next time and I think she could still end up one of the better fillies this season despite Zabeel Queen disappointing here. Will probably back her for the Guineas before she runs again.
The St Leger has panned out a lot better than I expected it would. I backed Santiago at 12/1 after he won at Royal Ascot and was hoping the race would cut up badly but it hasn't and some promising contenders have emerged. It always seems to happen that you get a good looking bet and much better horses come out of the woodwork than in the average season. I was hoping to see Santiago facing a weak looking field but we have Pyledriver, Hukum and Galileo Chrome all turning up after good wins last time. English King is in the mix as well and it looks a competitive renewal. Obviously 12/1 is a good bet to have on Santiago but confidence is muted with others needing to be respected. I am probably going to back something else as a saver but haven't committed yet. No Serpentine or Tiger Moth in the field and neither has been seen since their respective Derby win and Irish Derby runner up runs. I am wondering if Serpentine will be tactically retired with his Derby win untarnished by being beaten on return to the track?
Serpentine is running in the Grand Prix De Paris on Sunday, 13/8 fav, probably be retired if he doesnt win it. English King looks likely to run there instead of the Leger and the inconsistent Mogul also runs.
Didn't take long for Midlife Crisis to burst his bubble. He had a stunning win on debut but I have never heard of the trainer Hiroo Shimizu, so didn't want to be involved until the horse ran again. Only 4th of 4 today at a shade of odds-on, the trainer's assertion that he was a Lagardere horse looks unfounded. I am hoping Fabre can do better with Harajuku in the next race. I liked her debut and have backed her at 2/1 for the D'Aumale.
Pista gets me out of jail today, quite surprised she coped best with the slow pace as she was the one I would have been most worried about, I expected Snow to go much faster but it turned into a bit of a sprint. Dubious Affair ran well but it was actually her who struggled most with the slow pace and then stayed on well, she wants 2m+ I think but they will be happy enough with the run, she wasnt disgraced and there will be more races to be won with her. please log in to view this image
Harajuku seemed to take ages to get going and Kings Harlequin was gone at the front. The more experienced filly was 3rd to Fev Rover last time and that was a nice enough compliment to the Fahey filly. Not a bad run from Harajuku but she seemed to lack a bit of toe in wearing down the rest of the field but not reeling in the Group 2 3rd placed horse. The pair were returned 9/4JFs and market confidence wasn't as strong in Harajuku, who was 6/4 in places earlier.
I respect SImon Rowlands a lot but hes had a bit of a shocker today saying Believe In Love was value at anything above 6/4, she was a horrendous price and very easy to pass on. https://leger.attheraces.com/blogs-and-tips/simon-rowlands
Nice of Joseph to tell Buick that Pista would win, but not the public when interviewed on ITV before the race, Kevin Blake also kept his mouth shut, he never shares the information he obviously has working with that stable. A big club and we are not part of it.
'Saver' bets should surely be mentioned before the 'off' on the DT, rather than post a printed copy of a so-called 'betting slip' after the race has been run? If this can't be done for any reason, then just keep quiet about it?
What did he tell Buick regarding Ubuntu I wonder? I reckon he might have handed the pilot a SatNav and said "You'll need this to locate the rest of the field after four furlongs"
Apologies, did read your lengthy posts early on, but forgot about that bit I guess. Still don't like these copy 'betting slips', totally unnecessary.
probably something similar to what Mr Miyagi told Midlife Crisis's jock, beaten a stunning distance to be honest, potential star prospects in tatters
14/1 JFav for the Guineas for Indigo Girl in some places. I think that it tight. She'll need 10F next year I would think. Pretty Gorgeous is Evens favourite for Sunday's Moyglare and a win there will surely see her in single figures for the 1000 Guineas if she does it nicely. I feel the filly will need a mile in time but they kept her at 7F last time and she reversed form with Shale from the same trip previously and Joseph O'Brien felt they might as well stay at that trip and go for the Moyglare. Shale re-opposes and is 7/2 second favourite for Sunday and the rest are 10/1 and upwards. Divinely got little help from Ubuntu on the form front today and is 20/1 for the Moyglare. The ones coming in with one win from one run have plenty to find and it's hard to imagine anything other than Shale being the main danger. Pretty Gorgeous is rated on 110 and that is heading the fillies with form beyond the 6F trip. I am hoping for a good showing from her on Sunday.
The trainer said he felt Midlife Crisis was a Lagardere horse, not me. I merely said it would be interesting to see how he performed given the trainer's comment. I explained that I knew nothing about the trainer and for that reason he was just a horse to watch for now. I didn't put Midlife Crisis up today, or for any other race in the future. I never tipped him as a bet and had no financial interest, so I couldn't give a fiddler's how he performed today in what was advised as a watching brief. I never gave anyone a bum steer with Midlife Crisis and I pointed out how overrated the Unbuntu form looked. There was plenty of evidence to suggest it looked unreliable and the market seemed to realise that as well.
the form looked unreliable but in the context of a race where the 2 market leaders were maiden winners, it wasnt the worst on offer, the market told the story and the horse ran accordingly, clearly nowhere near the level it ran to in Ireland and THEY knew, ultimately, I was looking for something against the top 2 and it didnt matter what way I went as one of the top 2 won the race so I was on to a loser no matter what, you also lost on the race by falling for yet another early antepost hype job, you put that many of them up I lose track you said Midlife Crisis was a "stunning winner" and a "potential superstar", it finished stone last in what you described as a poor field and now you are washing your hands of it and couldnt give a fiddlers
I note that Hiroo Shimizu took over John Hammond's yard in France and he is from a background with no history in the Racing Industry. Apparently he was with Luca Cumani for one season. His first season was 9 wins from 81 runners and his biggest success was a second place in a Group 3 late last October. Without running him down early days in his career, it might be reasonable to suggest that he is not yet in a strong position to spot a Group 1 quality colt on it's first start and perhaps he was dreaming aloud. The writer explained that Hiroo's English is far from perfect. Still better than my Japanese I would say. Tora Tora Tora, the War movie stood for Tiger, Tiger, Tiger if I recall from the 70's.
