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Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2020

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Ron, Aug 1, 2020.

  1. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    https://www.google.com/imgres?imgur...cid=3YLrTFLNypCvkM&w=845&h=443&source=sh/x/im

    This is apparently how you apply Pyledriver.

    My theory is that the horse is named as a nod to the actor Denver Pyle, who starred in The Life And Times Of Grizzly Adams and The Dukes Of Hazzard.

    In the latter show they used to take the windscreen out for filming the action in the cars and every car that ever did one of their trademark jumps over the creek ended up in the junkyard because the front of the vehicle was "Donald Ducked" after the stunt. They were good old boys never meaning no harm, according to the song but redneck scum, out of their tits on the local moonshine was probably more the case. There were a couple of law support sidekicks whose names were pronounced Big Anus and Little Anus, so that ties in with the Pyledriver name in a roundabout way. All I really remember was Daisy Duke and her legs that were insured for a million dollars. Not enough in my opinion. A guy I was at school with played Little Anus in a local rendition of the Dukes for Gala Week. Apparently the guy who played Boss Hog had gravy stains and dandruff on his white suit. Could have been worse, at least the dandruff was masked slightly.
     
    #41
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  2. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    <laugh>
     
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  3. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    I must have been the only one that saw William Muir interviewed on ITV Racing on Sunday afternoon stating that Pyledriver would NOT be running in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe but would be aimed at the St Leger.

    That is the only reason I can think of why Pyledriver is still quoted by William Hill at 33/1 whilst it is generally 4/1 (best priced 5/1) for the final Classic on Town Moor.

    When I look at the betting at the moment, I can see at least four potential no-shows in the first fifteen in the betting and the home defence is starting to look virtually non existent.
     
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  4. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Wiilam Muir has chickened out of going for the Arc. Despite all the bluster after the Voltigeur about his horse being underrated coming in in, that he has kept on improving, that he is a good horse, that he is a Group 1 horse, he has got gears etc. The truth is that they don't believe he can win it.

    As ever, we get the bullshit about "Only one chance to win a Classic" being the motivation, the brutal fact is that they are scared of taking on Love, Enable and Ghayyiath.

    The worrying thing is that Muir has said "If he stays, it will take a good one to beat him" What if he doesn't stay? What if there is a good one to beat him?

    We have seen plenty of horses caught out in the St Leger and we do have a potential good one in Santiago. The O'Brien horse was said by some to have disappointed behind Stradivarius last time considering the weight allowance but he travelled well that day and only gave way late. Nayef Road was second that day but he's no mug and ran another solid race in the Lonsdale Cup. The Johnston horse has run to 114, 116, 116, 114 in his four starts this season based on Racing Post Ratings and that is a rock solid yardstick. I feel that Santiago's run in the Goodwood Cup amounted to more than his Irish Derby win and I'll be surprised if it doesn't pan out as such given time.

    The O'Brien horse has the proven stamina and has only had six starts so there is scope for further improvement back against his own age group. He would be the one I would be worrying about most if I were William Muir.

    Even if not going for the Arc, I still think the Grand Prix De Paris was a better option. No worries about the longer trip and when you get right down to it the St Leger isn't really group 1 quality.

    I don't think Pyledriver was a 40/1 shot for the Arc. He's 1 lb behind Serpentine and 2 lbs behind Mishriff now. The former horse is dubious of that rating and the latter a doubtful stayer. Never mind we will see how Muir's choice pays off. No real damage at 40/1 for a few quid, it was always likely they would cack their pants and go for the St Leger to face a field of plodders.
     
    #44
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2020
  5. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    When I saw the entries for next week’s September Stakes at Kempton, I was surprised. :emoticon-0104-surpr

    It was not the fact that there were no big names going there to challenge Enable, as the big guns will be eyeing the Irish Champion. But I had expected that Aidan O’Brien would put in a couple of spoilers just to make sure that Enable did not have it all her own way.

    The best horse entered other than the dual Arc winner is St Leger winner Logician, from the same yard. Teddy Grimthorpe has already confirmed that he will only run if Enable is absent for some reason.
     
    #45
  6. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Very interesting
     
    #46
  7. Archers Road

    Archers Road Urban Spaceman

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    Is it? What have I missed?
     
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  8. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The last I read, Enable wasn't just on target for the September Stakes, she was "VERY much on target for the race", that being the case there seemed little point in putting Logician in the race if he won't run should Enable line up. These people clearly don't have to work to a budget, even in Covid-19 times.

    It is probably going to be like a piece of work for Enable and will just confirm she is well enough to contest the Arc. Maybe we could have joint favourites again for the Arc in the aftermath.

    Where has Derby winner Serpentine got to? I can't recall a Derby winner going AWOL quite like this before. He is shown as having the Irish Leger as a target and if he runs in that you can wave the white flag for the Arc now.

    Irish Derby runner up Tiger Moth is another who has vanished from the scene. Maybe it is one of those tactical moves where he retires to stud with an Irish Derby 2nd on his CV instead of letting him run and risk it turning out like a fluke placing,

    Time is running out for any serious challengers to emerge. It looks a stagnant race.
     
    #48
  9. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    The fact that he even said it is interesting to me. For starters it means Logician could be ready for an Arc prep as a back up. Also the use of the word "If" could imply there might be some doubt about Enable running. Is he wondering if Enable is capable of giving Love 7lb? Is Logician sparkling on the gallops?

    Confused? You will be
    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?...03AE9A02E44558799EA903A&view=detail&FORM=VIRE
     
    #49
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  10. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    Yeah, my first thoughts were that Logician might be working really well.
     
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  11. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    If, and it's a big if, the going is good then I will most certainly stick with the Eclipse and Juddmonte winner Ghaiyyath. On decent ground I feel certain he will stay the extra quarter-mile. However, I am not sure the French will allow the going to become too firm, should there be a spell of good weather, and will water the hell out of the ground? Should it come up soft or heavy, forget Ghaiyyath, he just does not act under these conditions.

    I found this blog from a ILuvTurfRacing, which is a fair read: <laugh>

    ILuvTurfRacing2 months ago • edited
    When he's on his game, this colt looks a monster. Ghaiyyath has already done something in just a handful of races so far this season that no other horse to date has done yet. In 2020, Ghaiyyath's already beaten Stradivarius and Enable both back to back. He beat Stradivarius first over 12F at Newmarket in the G1 Coronation Cup and now Enable over 10F at Sandown in the G1 Coral-Eclipse. If you think that doesn't really sound like much of an accomplishment then put this in perspective. It's something that no other horse has been able to do in the past three full seasons. Ghaiyyath likes to front run and dictate the fractions and just about everything else for that matter, to suit himself on the front end. Once William Buick gets him rolling with that huge stride on the front end, you'd better be close enough behind him on the horse your riding to reach out and bite his butt or spit in the crack of his a$$. If not, the chances of catching this monster once he shakes loose and slips the field is just about slim to absolute none.
     
    #51
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2020
  12. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Probably the wrong place for this but
    Logician set for comeback run at Doncaster next week
    The unbeaten son of Frankel is to tackle a mile and a quarter for the first time since last June in the Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Conditions Stakes, which has attracted 13 entries. Logician was struck down with a life-threatening stomach condition known as peritonitis last winter. Now fully recovered, the four-year-old is entitled to come on for his first outing in almost a year.

    Can't wait to see him again. Very remote chance he could yet turn up for the Arc (quoted at 40/1)


     
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  13. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    Just my opinion but only way it turns up for the Arc is if Enable doesn't or Enable does run but they know it isn't winning
     
    #53
  14. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Agreed except, in the latter case, I can't see her running
     
    #54
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  15. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    A cursory inspection of the Arc betting after Enable’s September Stakes exercise gallop reveals nothing really has changed. At the time of writing, Love is best priced 2/1 and Enable is 11/4.

    A couple of the firms have pushed Ghaiyyath out to 10/1 but he is generally 6/1 or 7/1. I think maybe they share my view that as we get nearer to race day and the possible ground conditions become apparent, he may be a defector.

    Mishriff has now been removed from all lists as he would need to be supplemented and expectation is that he will stick to ten furlongs. Curiously he hold an entry for the Grand Prix de Paris but not the Irish Champion. Only one bookmaker is still quoting Pyledriver, who the trainer has already stated is not running. If Santiago wins the St Leger easily, he could be supplemented to attempt the double that has never been done. Similarly Derby winner Serpentine could be added after the Grand Prix de Paris, for which Ballydoyle has 20 per cent of the entire 144 entered!

    The shortest priced French runner is Raabihah, the Hamdan Al Maktoum owned filly that was fourth in the blanket finish to the Prix de Diane behind Fancy Blue and followed up with a penalty kick in a Group 3 at Deauville. Well, he has been winning most other things this year, she does get all the allowances and she is entered in the Prix Vermeille to find out about the trip. If she does not win, where is the home challenge?

    I can see Aidan O’Brien having six or seven runners this year as the ante post list does seem to be dominated by John Gosden’s confirmed runners and Ballydoyle possibles.


    Edit: it never occurred to me when I wrote this that the winner of the Grand Prix de Paris this year gets an automatic entry for the Arc, so if Serpentine wins it he is in three weeks later, which also applies for Mishriff if he takes his chance (although you would think it would have been mentioned by now if that race was where he was heading – Gosden has only named the Champion Stakes as a target).
     
    #55
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2020
  16. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Beauty personified

    This was a lovely picture of Enable but not606 is refusing to add it to the post despite several attempts to edit. Very odd
     
    #56
  17. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Maybe this time

    please log in to view this image
     
    #57
  18. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    What a muscular mare!
     
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  19. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Look at that front extension. Doesn't get any better than that
     
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  20. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    The changes to the Arc betting after the St Leger and the Irish Champion Stakes were all rather predictable.

    Skybet and Betway are the only bookies still 2/1 about Love whilst Skybet and 888 Sport are the only ones still 11/4 about Enable.

    The Irish Champion winner Magical has shortened almost in every list, ranging from 7/1 with Bet365 to 14/1 with Boyle Sports but standing out at 20/1 with 10 Bet. Not surprisingly Ghaiyyath’s price has lengthened, although myself I have to wonder whether he will be lining up. There has been no real reaction to Sottsass just plugging on for fourth at Leopardstown so clearly the bookies were as unimpressed as most observers. Does Rouget have some master plan in mind for the big race? Japan is out to 40/1 after his complete blow out.

    Hills are alone offering 33/1 St Leger winner Galileo Chrome, who would need to be supplemented, whilst Santiago is out to 40/1.

    Sunday will see some real shake-ups in the betting with three of the top six in the market running over Arc course and distance. I expect at least one of them could disappear from the betting.
     
    #60

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