Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe 2011

spot on Oddy.

O'Brien is 'concerned' about SYT staying the trip.

My arse. I bet he's never been as confident about winning the Arc in the last ten years. I'm worried SYT might literally just go and hack up.



The money about him is absolutely exceptional on Betfair right now. Of the £25,000 that has been traded on Betfairs newly formed market (no longer ante-post, its now the raceday market), it looks to me that over 50% of the money matched is on that horse.

Theres currently about £6000 of lay money and £6000 of backers money.


Either way, someones gonna be laughing on Sunday evening.

 

Well done that man. The word is out – they’ve been creatures of habit and turned on the taps. Gosden should have coughed up the readies for Nathaniel – if he can’t go on good or good to soft ground, he is not worthy of any great accolades.

That would be a different So You Think to the one that was short-priced favourite for last year’s two mile Melbourne Cup and ran third.


I’m still happy with Sarafina myself. She’s a hold-up horse so she can drop in behind the pack from her wide draw, get a position turning for home and (hopefully) not get in traffic trouble in the straight.

 

All the money is on So You Think. On the back and lay sides together he has well over £18,00 unmatched. Only one other horse has more than £1,000! Now that is a massive difference. Perhaps the Coolmore boys are wading in. They are renowned for their gambling. He's only been half fit all year and now they're going to let him loose at Longchamp . . .

 

A half-fit Aussie running around in the Paris suburbs. Shame it’s not Kylie...

 

Both favourites drifting now. But I think So You Think can win this even from the lousy draw. I went in at 4-1 fixed and happy to plow in at the 5s now

 

I've had a real good look at the race and a real good(/long!) write up too: http://cuhrs.blogspot.com/

The more i look at it the more i don't fancy anything bar So You Think. He has an absolute mountain to climb to defeat the vast array of statistics suggesting he can't win. But the one thing he has in his favour is that he's the best horse in the race, and that is what counts. I'd almost go so far as to say that he is overpriced based on his achievements this season and is it even possible that the 'hype' is working in reverse?! People are almost writing him off just because he has been hyped to within an inch of his life, when his bare form warrants the utmost respect.

So You Think - Best form in the race and top rated on Official Ratings and Timeform. Will like the ground and should stay but not for definite. I think the race will suit too. Bad draw the one negative.

I can't be having anything else:

Sarafina - Been winning mickey mouse races and no form up to the required level. I think the Arc run last year was overplayed and she's favourite on the back of that in what was, in my opinion, a poor renewal. Also badly drawn.

Galikova - Don't think she has the form good enough to win either.

Workforce - Won a weak renewal last year with everything in his favour, but ground is against him this time.

Reliable Man/Meandre - Think the 3yos are all much of a muchness with RM as the pick but ground is against him. Meandre isn't good enough.

Hiruno D'Amour/Nakayama Festa - Form of neither is good enough to take this.

Masked Marvel - St Leger performance was too good not to have left a mark and this comes too soon.

Snow Fairy - Often exposed at the very top level. I think she is very good but not quite good enough.

Danedream - Been beating trees on very soft ground. This is a whole lot tougher.

St Nicholas Abbey - Exposed twice as lacking a change of gear in the King George and Prix Foy but a strong gallop would suit.

Treasure Beach - As with the French 3yo colts, i think they're all very similar with no real stand out.

Testosterone/Shareta/Silver Pond - Not good enough.



Shoot me down with your flaming arrows of ridicule!

 

I wouldn't have thought they will have done anything with him at home to be able to determine whether the race has left it's mark or not. He is obviously fit and well and showing all the right signs but it's only when push comes to shove that they'll know. If he can do the Leger/Arc double after winning the first leg in that fashion i will be mightily impressed. If he can pull it off we might well have a real superstar on our hands. I'm not saying it's impossible by any means but it's enough of a doubt to put me off backing him.

 

How do you guys feel about the pace angle?


I wonder if there is a worrying lack of it?


My one Ante-Post bet is on St Nicholas Abbey at 85/1 and the way it is looking, I'm worried it might be him who has to set the pace!

Masked Marvel needs a real good gallop but he does have more speed in his locker than people give him credit for- but at this level he needs the cards to drop right.


So You Think does need to settle and I don't think the draw is a terrible thing- if he drops in just behind mid-division, Seamus can settle him and to be honest, the way he travels swinging on the bridle up to 3f out, he can easily cruise into a position to strike. I also think he needs a horse to aim at (a la Eclipse) whereas he seems to idle in front.

 

I think the race revolves around the Ballydoyle trio. So You Think is their prized asset and i am sure they will be doing everything they can to get him home in front. Provided their tactics are sensible and they employ them well then i think they have every chance of success.

The comments in the media seem to suggest that SYT will be dropped in and held for a late run. Whether this means dropped in behind his stable companions or dropped in the field is uncertain. I wonder whether Coolmore are willing to sacrifice SNA to give SYT a really good lead into the race? I suspect they probably are. I was keen on SNA as an EW bet but this is the one thing putting me off. I think he may be sacrificed for SYT.

There are no confirmed front runners so i definitely think the pace angle is interesting. It could be that one horse or team could take the bull by the horns and dominate the race from the front. I suspect, and hope, that it will be the Ballydoyle brigade who do it.

 

I wish Buthelezi was running. What a bloody awesome pacemaker he was in the Leger. He was like a lunatic for a mile and a quarter.

 

Would not at all surprise me. He managed to fend off Census from the front a couple of starts back so maybe yes. Could probably do with a similar run race to Nathaniel in the King George- race prominently and then taking over from the pacemaker about half a mile out and look to kick for home.

 

Well didnt SYT scramble home all out against WF who was running at a distance short of his best.Now WF is running at his optimum trip over course and distance in which he has won.And SYT has never raced over 12f in Europe yet he has the best form in the race?Explain please.

 

Fair enough point DB but don't forget Workforce had the pacemaker and the run of the race in the Eclipse and was beaten 1/2 length,ultimately outstayed.

The key to Sunday is whether they bounce SYT out and sprint to attain a position.If those drawn lower do the same,it will be suicidal and expel loads of energy.Sarafina in the next box will tuck in,SYT should do the same.

Sometimes too much is made of the draw.The farcical situation of ground preparation is the story as far as I'm concerned.Statistics bear out the fact the Longchamp turf is invariably easy for this fixture.When environmantal conditions conspire to buck this trend,the French turn the taps on to produce soft ground of their own volition.

Utterly ridiculous for a race of this import to be deliberately run on ground Simon Claisse would die for.

Little wonder SF has to travel to the noodle bowl to get decent gd/fm ground....you know,the terrain flat racing thoroughbreds are conceived to race on.

Apart from that,I'm really looking forward to it!!

As a postscript,the supporting card is moderate,poor actually,save the Foret,and I look forward to the breeders cup for some proper competition..

Helmet on!!

 

The more I think about this race, the more confused I become. I think I've got to the point where I'm over think the situation. I'm beginning to see frightening monsters behind every tree. For me, there are just two quality horses who've proved, time and again, that they are genuine heavyweights. These are last year's winner Workforce and the So You Think. A lot of cases can be made for other contenders, and each of them comes in with a real chance, but for me, they rank as second and third tier candidates.

Sarafina is one that comes into this category. She ran a great race last year, and may have come on since then, but as has been mentioned by quite a few of regulars, the race this year seems to have a bit more depth to it than the 2010 renewal. The French love her, so she can't be denied a solid chance, but I think Workforce has also come on, and should have her measure again. The locals have had a very good year, winning most of their G1 events, so there it has to be conceded that they could pull of a surprise again. When you get down to thinking like this though, you tend to turn your back on form and rely on the chocolate wheel theory. Spin the wheel and hope for the best. Not for me!

The same goes for the interlopers from across the ditch. With the exception of Workforce and So You Think, the rest are at best, value bets. everyone knows that these horses are up against it, but the betting value is too good to walk away from. There are some amazing prices being offered about some very good racehorses. Who can be blamed for have a crack? Nobody.

So for me, on paper, it looks a race in two. The one big question mark hanging over the race though, is not the state of the track, but the manner in which the race will be run. Both Workforce and So You Think will want a decent clip. A few might be surprised that I'd want a quick pace for So You Think. Some doubt his ability to get the trip, I have no doubts at all. His run in the two mile Melbourne Cup was a bottler. But he wasn't too well ridden that day, his rider went a bit too early, allowing the other two to finish over the top of him, pretty much in the same fashion that the ill fated Rewilding did. He also pulled his head off for most of the trip. He wouldn't have won, but should have finished second. As the horse was born on November 10, he was still only three in real terms and carrying the grandstand for a horse of that age. He'll get a mile and a half on his ear. An interfered run aside, if he's beaten, it'll be on his merits. If he's to be given his best chance, he needs to covered until the furlong, as he was in the Eclipse, then produced. He won't be far away at the top of the straight. He should be eased into it it, then let loose. By no means should he be asked to do any of the grinding work. If the pace is off then he could be trapped deep, but you'd he to think that AOB has contingency plans in place for times such as these. it's hard to see the likes of St Nicholas Abbey being sacrificed as he's a genuine second tier chance, but I can think of no other reason why Treasure Beach is running. And added to the fact that he's drawn two slots inside So You Think, makes him the ideal animal to lead their big gun across into what they hope will be a decent position. If the pace is not on from the inside, then they might have to push forward with Treasure Beach, assuring a solid clip for both So You Think and St Nicholas Abbey. I'll help Workforce too.

Workforce for mine ran one hell of a race when he went down to So You Think in the Eclipse. It was the best heads up fight between class horses, I seen in the UK since I've taken an interest. He may have won a sub standard Arc last year, but the win was emphatic. He's a much more robust animal now, and the trip is right up his alley. I'm a huge fan of this horse and believe him to grossly underrated as a galloper. That's a strange thing to say about a Derby/Arc winner, but he doesn't seem to be held in the same high regard that a lot of other past champions. The same old story keeps being trotted out, weak Derby, weak Arc. Maybe so, but to win those two races as he did was astounding. Wins the Derby by a huge margin in a record time: how many former greats have done that? And then couple that to an Arc win in the same season. He's a rare find and what ever beats him on Sunday, will know that they've been in a race.

So You Think.

Workforce.

 

Right lads and lasses. Don't take this as gospel but my sources have told me that SYT has done his best ever work by a mile since joining AOB in the last week. I am not personally having a bet but people can make of it what they will