I would be fascinated to hear an explanation of those ratings for the Gimcrack from the Racing Post handicapper. I am not interested in what he was smoking but I might be tempted by a pint of whatever rocket fuel he was drinking. He certainly was not using the stopwatch on the dead ground. Are these ratings adjusted according to the weight carried, so we should actually be deducting a stone from them because they had 9st not 10st? With two months of the season to go, some of these will have Frankel ratings by the end of the season with simple progression. Minzaal will be no price in the Middle Park and irrespective of his pedigree (there is some stamina on the dam’s side) he has so much natural speed that they should take the hint.
Sorry, it was the July Stakes. The point remains that the form looks poor though. The Racing Post had Tactical running just 2 lbs below his July Stakes winning form today in the Morny. He won with a 107 performance at Newmarket in a performance described as sparkling at the time but I can't buy into him running to within 2 lbs of that today. He was outpaced and lying 7th in the closing stages but passed enough to secure 5th place, those he went by were weakening badly though and the race comment that Tactical was staying on is probably only in relation with others back-pedalling. It seems hard to think Tactical was close to his very best today but that's what the Racing Post Rating is saying happened.
The rating is just the actual rating. They adjust the ratings for any racecard of a future race and those adjusted ratings take account of the weight in order to make a direct comparison of the ratings to include weight differences, allowances, penalties etc Of course young horses can improve and may not have been extended in winning their race but I find the biggest improvement in form is generally from race 1 to race 2 and am suspicious of races where several horses are awarded big increases, it begs the question as to whether they did all improve at the same time, or if the race itself has been overrated. Yazaman is the yardstick here with his slightly lesser performance and to me he ran like a horse who hit the wall in the Richmond, If we downgrade that effort and then seeing him burst his run of seconds with a 6th next time, you could argue for further decline in his form. Over in Ireland we saw Devious Company also hit the wall. The Dascombe colt has runner-up placings behind Master Of The Seas and Battleground but he failed to cope with the drop to 6F when taken off his feet in the sales at York before staying on late to take second place. Chasing more cash over at Naas yesterday he got away on slightly better terms but when asked to close he faltered and hung across the track, fading into 9th place. The quick turn out after York probably took its toll but it looks like they were rushed into trying to win some nice money with the colt and had to try to force it at 6F. His run yesterday was rated 81 and that was miles below his earlier form. He could be hard to place now. Chief Little Hawk won that valuable pot yesterday and he has not done a lot for AOB with an exposed looking OR of 96. He was a 22/1 shot, indicating that was not fancied by many. Devious Company's OR of 107 should have been enough to win the race and that was why I backed him at 5/2 yesterday but the decision to send him again so soon has backfired and it is hard to see him bouncing back because of a lack of opportunities for the type of horse he is.
I'm sure you are right that Tactical is not a leading 2yo but I do think a few things need to be said. The first is that that is about the worst going I've seen for a long time. Tactical has a good ground action and wouldn't have been suited by such heavy ground. He was struggling from the start and while you'd say he basically isn't any good, I'd say he didn't like the ground. We know Kodiacs love give, so no surprise Campanelle enjoyed herself out in front. The second is that I'd question Boudot's riding of the colt. He, and for that matter Soumillon, chose to come up the rail, whereas all the horses in the race and indeed in other races yesterday came up the centre (both the first two in the Romanet followed a similar path to the winner of the Morny). Soumillon said after the race that his path led to his horses defeat (probably an exaggeration). That couldn't have helped Tactical. The third is that when Boudot chose to make a move he was the meat in the sandwich between Soumillon's mount and the rest of the field. In a 6f race a loss of momentum like that is difficult to recover from, especially in that going. So I will, you won’t, give Tactical another chance. Where that is remains to be seen but I’m sure it’ll be on good ground or firmer
The whole point of assessing the form coming in is to decide whether a horse might be overrated and poor value because of it. We knew in advance coming in that the Morny was going to be run on soft and in the circumstances Tactical looked bad value given the collateral form and I suggested he was worth leaving alone based on that. It's all about his next race now and I will assess his prospects once the target is known. With the potential factors that were against Tactical on the day, you must surely agree that he hasn't run to within 2 lbs of his July Stakes win? Campanelle is already getting the Sprinting Sensation/Classic Contender ruler being run over her for size. Early enough to be hyping her up but that is the media way these days. To find out if she is likely to get a mile they could try her at 7F next but there seems to be set in stone approach that they will stick at 6F for this season and make any decision the following spring, by which stage the filly will have run at 6F in the Cheveley Park and then at a greyhound track in the USA, leaving us none the wiser about next season. The debate about her target next season seems pointless having at the moment. Campanelle is 25/1 for the 1000 Guineas but absent from plenty lists. Queen Mary runner up Sacred had let the form down a bit with her defeat and it was blatantly clear that the Haggas filly was a false favourite for the 1000 Guineas coming into last week. She was there by default as a tentative tissue 25/1 shot but totally the wrong sort of filly for a Guineas. I thought you could name your price now with Sacred and Paddy Power doubled her odds to 50/1. I liked Pretty Gorgeous on debut for Joseph O'Brien and would have backed her next time but was worried that she was dropping to 7F. Shale was a little bit sharper that day but I thought Pretty Gorgeous was the one to follow, as a filly of real substance. By Lawman, the elder son's filly gained revenge on his younger brother's runner in fairly commanding fashion and I was with her as the better value on the more testing ground. I saw some other opinion that Joey's filly might need a stiffer test but having won at 7F on soft the immediate plan seemed to be to go to the Moyglare with her. I decided to play Pretty Gorgeous for the Classics because most of this season's good female talent seems to be at the sprint trip of 6F and there will likely be a showdown coming where only one could possibly emerge as top of the pack. I took the gamble that Pretty Gorgeous will go to the Moyglare next and then the Fillies Mile as a closure to the season. I suppose the Boussac could be an option depending on the Covid-19 scenario but it seems less hassle staying near to home. 20/1 for the 2000 Guineas and 40/1 for the Oaks were the prices and they had to be taken with one race leading to a high possibility of the other. Not got the Galileo stamina seed but she shapes like she should get 10F at least. Early days, but in an uninspiring season for Guineas contenders and likely stayers over more than a mile, I took Joey's promising filly as one who could end the season as a leading contender. 1000 Guineas Pretty Gorgeous 20/1 Epsom Oaks Pretty Gorgeous 40/1 The Racing Post rated Pretty Gorgeous 112 for her Debutante win and the official Irish Handicapper awarded 110, so she has improvement to make. Plenty good fillies have won the Debutante though and reading the previous winner list offers plenty of encouragement .
There isnt a colt around whos going to give Campanelle weight and a beating at 5 or 6f, and the fillies dont have a chance either, shes a top class 2yo who has been extremely impressive in all 3 starts now, she has high class speed, she goes on any ground, and shes tractable. Ward is based at Keeneland and it sounds like the BC Juvenile there is her main aim now, she should have no issue getting the sharp mile on fast ground and shes unlikely to be up against much if the Debuatante stakes is any indicator of the quality in the 7f+ fillies division. Early days but 5/1 looks well worth taking as she could end up a 6/4 shot.
Richard Hannon's Etonian was a surprise winner on his debut at Sandown when he was by no means the trainer's main contender for the 7F Maiden race. He defied the odds of 28/1 though and powered clear to win by more than three lengths. Returned to the same course and distance for the Solario Stakes, it was no surprise to see Etonian much more fancied on this occasion and with the runner up from his first race (One Ruler) doing the business earlier on the card, it was a boost to confidence in the Hannon trained Olympic Glory colt. The Solario race saw Etonian in arrears in the early stages and a bit keen at times. There was a report that he seemed to slip at one stage but watching it in replay ot seemed a very minor incident. Etonian worked into the race looking likely to win it and he did pick up well to win but having reached the head of the field he just took a little bit of time to put it to bed. It was an encouraging win but the time was half a second slower than the maiden winner earlier and that colt carried 4 lbs more than Etonian did. Richard Hannon said that Etonian is definitely a Guineas horse and this represented quite a step up on his first run but I would say he sits about 7-10 lbs below the very best at the moment. 25/1 and slightly lower for the 2000 Guineas seems about right at this stage but I feel others could yet trump Etonian's Solario performance and would want to see the Hannon colt take another step forward to solidify his claims.
I agree that Tactical did not run within pounds of his ability and given that it's bonkers for anyone to use his performance as a yardstick by which to rate others.
Tactical was overrated at 110, Yazaman has been thrashed twice since, his RPR in the Morny was only 2 below his July Stakes win. The Windsor Castle is not a race which often throws up significant Group 1 horses, Tactical is a decent 2yo, just just not among the top ones.
Devious Company has not exactly advertised the form of Master of The Seas and Battleground so far. Seventh Kingdom 3rd in the Superlative was tailed off in a listed race Salisbury, Saint Lawrence was beaten 2L further in a listed race at Ascot by one of Hannons decent 2yos. Ventura Tormenta won a sprint in france but was a small field and he was then beaten half the track in the Pheonix in Ireland. That form looks well short of Group 1 standard and concerning given these 2 are heading the betting for the classics next year. Etonian for me was one of the most impressive maiden winners ive seen this season, the form did not work out too well but plenty went wrong for him and he was far better than the formbook says, good to see him win the Solario and while the form looks a bit iffy, he will take a bit of beating wherever he goes. The form book suggests that Chindit is above Master of The Seas at this stage, as pointed out, he beat Saint Lawrence 2L further and his Pattery Eddery win has been well franked by Cobh winning the Salisbury race, Naval Crown winning the convivial by daylight. Hannon appears to have a very strong hand with these 2 colts.
Benoit i note Campanelle is entered in both the sprint and the mile was going to have a go but it being entered in both has stopped me. Do you think it will defo be the mile.
I think so, apparently Dettori was saying "mile, mile, mile" to Wesley after the race on the phone, and he will have plenty of other options for the sprint so I think it looks odds on she will go for the mile race.
2000 Guineas - Etonian 25/1 Prefer his pedigree over Chindits for next year, and I think he will go for what has been the key Guineas trial in recent times, the Futurity(Racing Post). I dont think things have went his way in 2 races so far and he has still won them easily, looks to have the right blend of speed, acceleration and stamina to be a proper classic colt. Hannon Threatened last year to have a good one, and I think he does this time. As I said in previous post, the form of those currently at the top of the market does does not look top class, but there is still plenty of time for other dangers to emerge. Id be surprised if this horse doesnt develop into a serious single figure contender.
Devious Company was dropped to 6F and that was always going to be the question mark for the sales race at York. He was slowly away and faced a near impossible task against sprinting types. He did make headway and managed to catch all but one, so in the circumstances it was a decent effort over the shorter trip. The Racing Post gave him 7 lbs below his best effort up to that point and it was always likely he wouldn't be as suited by the 6F trip and he would have been odds-on if the race were over 7F. The decision to chase an even bigger prize pot at Naas over the same 6F trip, just three days after his York run, was always going to be a gamble. It was also the softest ground Devious Company has ever encountered. Those question marks saw him available at 11/4 in the betting, so he was no shoo-in despite being the highest rated horse in the race. He was behind but in a place to strike but his run petered out quickly and he hung across the track as others passed him to leave him 9th. The Racing Post Rating this time was 81, so he was miles below his form, I think there are mitigating circumstances for both of Devious Company's recent runs and it could well be he is a horse who was never going to go on this season from good early form. The Official Handicapper has left Devious Company on 107 but I would be very doubtful that he has the ability to run to that level now. I would be predicting that his official rating will start creeping down as he reappears, even when returned to 7F. Master Of The Seas is of interest to me because he looks likely to progress further. The stable have said that they are surprised he was able to do as much as he has done at this stage, as they felt he would need more time to show his true ability. The National Stakes and a potential clash with Battleground might be the next step and obviously that might see a clear Guineas favourite emerge. One horse who has let Master Of The Seas down is John Gosden's Seventh Kingdom but the trainer is having a poor year with his juveniles by his standards. Only 6 wins from 47 runs of the 25 2YOs he has run this season and Seventh Kingdom is highest rated on 101 but he only ran to 84 behind Cobh, so he either ran flat, or was overrated on 101 to begin with,time may tell us which. Guru was another promising Gosden 2YO who was flat last time. I had to laugh coming into that Kempton meeting, when the expert in the Racing Post nominated Guru as the selection for leg 1 of the Placepot. As 4/9 Fav I reckon we could all have surmised that he had a chance of placing but the colt must have had his own placepot bet on and reckoned it would pay more if he was out of the frame and he duly finished 5th, leaving the Racing Post followers sunk after leg 1. Megallan was very impressive for Gosden on debut and I am hoping he shakes the general malaise surrounding the stable's youngsters this year. Perhaps in September and October we will see some of the better youngsters who have needed more time and whom may be geared towards a 3YO career, starting to turn up in 7F and 1M maidens and Novice events.
William Bligh has also been beaten in a handicap off 87 and finished 5th of 6 in a listed race, he is turning out not as good as I hoped after he finished 3/4L behind Master of the Seas, but it seems now looking at how the form is all working out, I had overrated Master Of The Seas when he won at Newmarket, it just wasnt a very good race. I think his 112 rating could be 3 or 4 pounds higher than what he has actually achieved. Same goes for Battleground, the runner up in the Chesham has scraped in by a short head in a 2 horse race Ayr. Looking at the Vintage here, Devious Company, Youth Spirit, Gorytus, Fountain Cross. Is that classic winning form? Not for me. I dont think anything deserves to be under 16/1 for the Guineas yet as the best we have seen so far is around 110. please log in to view this image Pinatubo was running to 120+ at this time last year and even he didnt win the Guineas, while Kameko was still under the radar having finished 2nd in the Solario to a horse Pinatubo thrashed in the Vintage, and the runner up Wichita had only won a maiden by a head. So form right now is not vital, its all about who keeps improving. Master of The Seas looks a pretty early type to me, hes already quite professional and I dont see him improving dramatically. Battleground is probably a bit more raw and open to improvement, you would expect an Obrien horse to improve more at 3 than you would an Appleby horse. They set the standard just now but its not a particularly high standard as the division overall doesnt look strong so far, the National Stakes will be interesting but I suspect whatever wins will likely be overrated.
I noticed a few promising pedigrees on show in the entries for this week. The pick for me was Mahomes, presumably named after the quarterback who led Kansas City to the Superbowl victory earlier this year. Mahomes is trained by John Gosden and owned by Qatar Racing. He's a Dubawi colt out of The Fugue and was a January foal. He is entered in the Derby. Charlie Appleby has Act Of Wisdom entered this week as well and he is a Galileo colt out of Jacqueline Quest and a full brother to Line Of Duty, who was once a Derby contender. The Godolphin trainer also has Royal Touch, who is a Dubawi half brother to Farhh and a full brother to Dubai Thunder, who bolted up in a maiden before being fast-tracked to the Derby but it back-fired and the colt never raced again in what was a two race career. Interesting to see how these ones get on if they run. The Fugue will forever haunt me after letting me down for what would have been a memorable four timer on the Epsom card on Oaks day. Gatewood 9/4, Side Glance 4/1 and Highland Knight 13/2 had all won and I was waiting on The Fugue at 3/1. Sadly she got into trouble and it was too late when she got going and she was 3rd beaten half a length and a neck. My Gosden/Balding/Balding/Gosden fourfold was denied and the 486.5/1 accumulator was scuppered. I still reckon Buick made an arse of it that day and O'Brien's Was landed the spoils at 20/1. The winner never won another race and The Fugue got her revenge in the Nassau when she beat the older Timepiece, with Was third. Richard Hughes was on The Fugue that day.
The Fugue was one of the biggest bookie horses ive ever seen. Lost 7 of 8 when favourite and her 2 biggest wins were turning over odds on shots Al Kazeem and Treve. She probably beat thousands of accumulators over her career.
