Dhahabi made a winning debut despite carrying the 10 lbs penalty of my cash. It was no more than a fair effort and the fancy targets look unlikely. Appleby said they will go steady with his progression.
Amazing how this family has come to the fore. Oppenheimer has plenty of mares from the family but only one daughter of Fleche d'Or. As Golden Horn didn't run until the backend of the season and was relatively under the radar the next Spring you'd have to say this was a good start.
Supremacy must go to the top of the list of 6f juvenile colts. His Richmond win puts him a couple of lengths ahead of Tactical. A feather in the cap of first season sire Mehmas. He made a tardy start but has been banging in the winners in the last 3 weeks. Looks a certainty now to be champion FSS.
The Prix Morny was said to be a possible for Supremacy next. That makes sense. It's a race for fast horses but also a race where the winners have tended not to make up into the candidate for Guineas races that they might have seemed to be on target for long term when first regarded by pundits. Mehmas was retired after his 2YO season and it may be that Supremacy is also a precocious type who does his best as a 2YO. He was mighty impressive on his latest start and you might imagine that Steel Bull is the other really fast and talented colt around at the moment. There were some interesting races at Deauville today. The Marettes is a race for unraced 2YO fillies and some decent ones have started there careers there over the last few years. This year it was the Frankel filly Petricor who led the market and she was available at 5/2 when I checked the race out but there seemed market confidence behind her and she ended up returned as the 6/5 Fav. Settled in midfield she had to be nudged along earlier than you would like to have seen but she kept picking up and building momentum before sweeping through finishing by far the best, to ultimately score fairly readily by a length and a half. Some really well bred sorts were in behind and it will be interesting to see how the race shapes up as we move forward. Petricor's dam Ruscombe was running between 12F and 14F for Michael Stoute and you would think today's 7 and a half furlongs would have been perhaps short enough for the daughter today. In the colt's race that followed there was quite a striking win for Midlife Crisis. The son of Wootton Bassett out of an Australian mare worked his way towards the head of the field and sat there maintaining advantage until the jockey asked him when they turned into the straight, It was easy as pie, as he scampered a couple of lengths clear and then just kept going further clear before being eased down to win by a cosy five lengths. I reckon he could have won by eight lengths but obviously we don't know what he beat in a race for newcomers but he looked good and clocked a faster time than the filly in the earlier race over the same trip. I must admit that I know nothing about the trainer Hiroo Shimizu but his colt has seen off entries from the Fabre yard there today, including a Frankel colt who was warm favourite to complete a Trainer/Sire double double following Petricor's success. In the race that followed Rouget's Mouillage made it two from two when running away with his race by 5 and a half lengths. The son of Toronado picked up in magnificent style, doing all the damage in the last 300m as he went from being level with his field at that point, to heading for a different parish as he hit the winning line. Visually he seemed the most impressive of the three 2YO winners The time clocked by Mouillage was 1.32.70 and if we compare that to the first two winners over the same course and distance we see that he was a fair bit faster:- Petricor 1.34.91 Midlife Crisis 1.34.15 Mouillage 1.32.70 Midlife Crisis did carry 3 lbs more than the other two runners but I couldn't translate that into seconds to adjust the figures. Interesting races to keep an eye on for the French 2YO season going forwards I think.
The trainer has bold ambitions for Midlife Crisis:- “Midlife Crisis is a horse who I hold in very high esteem,” revealed winning trainer Hiroo Shimizu. “In my opinion, he has plenty of room for improvement and is capable of much more. I very much see him as a [G1] Prix du Jockey club horse for next year and the [Oct. 4 G1] Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere [over seven furlongs at ParisLongchamp] will be his target this season. He may have another race beforehand, but I keep in mind that he is ground dependent and needs it good or faster.”
There is betting in for the Prix Morny. Paddy Power have opened a book and they have Supremacy in as the 9/4 Fav. Queen Mary winner Campanelle is 3/1 second Fav from the Wesley Ward stable. Tactical is next best at 7/2 and the remainder are 7/1 and upwards. Campanelle won a Queen Mary where six of the runners have won since but some of them have been beaten on subsequent starts. The Ward filly wasn't a typical trailblazer when she won that 5F contest, so may be better suited than some of the speedsters at the minimum trip when tackling an additional furlong. Tactical is solid enough and has progressed well in class and from 5F to 6F but his two wins from Yazaman were eclipsed by Supremacy, who handed out bigger a bigger beating to the Haggas horse than Balding's colt did. Dandalla and Nando Parrado are next in the betting but I feel Supremacy sets the standard. Clive Cox feels Supremacy may not necessarily turn out to simply be a good 2YO but he has said his future is as a sprinter, so the 7F and 1M runners should be able to breathe a sigh of relief. I think Supremacy is a good bet at 9/4 but I am not sure how much you will be able to got on at this stage. I reckon he will take a bit of stopping.
Supremacy was gifted the Richmond with a soft lead, the runner up was all over the shop on the track and left poorly placed, the 3rd and 4th were beaten further in the Coventry and I dont think its as good as it looks. Campanelle will be very hard to give weight to.
Liffey River is entered up this week. The colt is trained by Joseph O'Brien and he is a full brother to Lope Y Fernandez. The dam Black Dahlia has had decent progeny so far and the trainer had an excellent looking winner today. Thunder Moon quickened very sharply to come between rivals and win going away today. He seemed to have plenty left and should have no problem getting a mile. I said over on the daily thread that he must have run to more than 90 and the Racing Post later awarded him 94, which is an excellent start. You would think a Group 3 would be in order next and any progress will make the son of Zoffany a real player. Lucky Vega splatted his field but St Mark's Basilica looked a false favourite in the Group 1 Phoenix after being beaten in a maiden first time up. Steel Bull disappointed but banged his head in the stalls breaking two teeth and bursting his lip. That can't have been very pleasant and perhaps he is better than he was able to show today. I am a little dubious on the 115 rating awarded to Lucky Vega by the Racing Post. That is 4 lbs higher than the Guineas favourite Battleground and also 4 lbs higher than Guineas second favourite Master Of The Seas. It was also one pound higher than Supremacy and eight pounds higher than Royal Ascot winner Campanelle who landed the Queen Mary and is said to have been working better than Lady Aurelia did after she bolted up in the same race in her year. I suspect the old "It's a Group 1 race, let's award group 1 figures" theory that the Racing Post have applied yet again. I will have to disagree with the figure for Lucky Vega today.
Dettori staying in France to ride Campanelle next week, shes now 9/4 fav from 3/1, Supremacy out to 7/2
Wesley Ward was quoted as saying Campanelle has been working better than Lady Aurelia at the same stage of their careers. Surely Frankie will have missed the deadline for leaving France and would need to self isolate for 14 days on returning to the UK now. He may as well stay in France because surely he cannot ride at York anyway?
Been waiting to see if anyone else will offer odds on the Prix Morny but still only Paddy Power. I don't think it is going to matter for me because Supremacy seems to be out of Paddy Power's list anyway. Tactical is shown as 7/2 second best. I thought they might have cut the Ward filly on the heads of Supremacy being out of it but she is still 9/4. Clive Cox sends shock Coventry winner Nando Parrado because he feels he is likely to handle the soft conditions. Supremacy may go to the Gimcrack. I doubt Campanelle will be at her best over 6F if it is very testing and surely that is the poison that Wesley Ward runners usually want to avoid. Tactical has won on good to soft but that race hasn't worked out very well. Dandalla has won on soft and over 6F, and her race has been working out well, with possibly more to come. Dandalla is the one I am toying with at 7/1 but am waiting to see for confirmation. Plenty to like at double the odds of Tactical I would say.
Michael Stoute's Maximal is entered at York this week and should be hard to beat in maiden company. The son of Galileo went down by only a nose to John Gosden's Guru, who finished with a rattle to just get up. This should be a stepping stone for better races to come and it will be surprising if the Stoute horse didn't come on a lot from his first start.
Guru was bloody awful as 4/9 Fav at Kempton yesterday. He never travelled as if likely to win and came under the pump a long way out. It looked a different horse to the one who had rattled home last time. Not what one would have wanted for Maximal fans but I felt at the time that the Stoute horse was the one for the future. John Gosden has had a pretty dismal time with his 2YO horses thus far but I thought Megallan bucked that trend in great style when he made his debut a winning one. He faced an odds-on Godolphin newcomer and went off at 7/2 but while the Appleby horse fluffed his lines, it was Megallan that looked like the odds-on shot as he travelled through very smoothly, kicked away and readily scored by a little over 3 lengths. He was full of running despite being eased as they hit the line and although the time was slow it looked visibly as if he would have won further if the pace had been stronger. Awarded a RPR of 83, I think he shaped like a 90+ horse there and I had a small bet at 33/1 for the 2000 Guineas as a son of Kingman owned by Anthony Oppenheimer, who seems quite adept at getting a decent horse most seasons. Long way to go of course but I'd be expecting better to come from Megallan. A winner over Guineas course and distance, he ticks early boxes and now will have to build on it. https://www.racingtv.com/videos/wat...ay-british-stallion-studs-ebf-novice-stakes-5
A literal reading of form would put Minzaal top of the 6f 2yo tree. The yardstick Yazaman ran such a poor race that it's probably wrong to take the form literally. However one cannot fail to be impressed to how this Mehmas colt won. The target is likely to be the Middle Park now, when he could meet Mehmas's other fine son Supremacy. Despite Crowley's comments about him being an ideal Commonwealth horse I would not be surprised if at least 7f is tried at some stage. The pedigree wouldn't put you off him getting further. Tomorrow's Morny will give us more pieces of the jigsaw.
Dandalla came out of the Morny because the trainer felt she might be going through a growing phase and isn't ready to run. Instead they will save her for the Cheveley Park. Burke also felt the ground might be too soft. It's a pity because Fev Rover won the Group 2 Prix Calvados today, albeit narrowly, She had been second to Dandalla at Newmarket in the Group 2 that used to be the Cherry Hinton and perhaps the trainer thought that Dandalla didn't win as impressively that day because of the soft going. I am not that excited by the Morny. Tactical's form is looking ragged after many disappointments to run since the Superlative Stakes and Campanelle's old sparring partner was beaten in the Lowther when warm favourite. Nando Parrado sprung a surprise in the Coventry at 150/1 but I think that was the worst Coventry I have ever seen. The form is bobbins and Nando Parrado has not been seen since. He's a massive lay for me. I think an upset maybe on the cards and Rhythm Master could run well. He skated up by more than 4 lengths on debut and looked talented. Mick Channon's Cairn Gorm is unbeaten and landed a Group 3 last time but it helped that the favourite fell out of the stalls with the hood still on and lost the race right there. Cairn Gorm looks a big price at 14/1 for an unbeaten horse but I had a feeling Rhythm Master could be well above average. Something about the way he moves seems strange to me though. He seems odd in the way he gallops. Maybe someone could look and give me their input on him:- https://www.racingtv.com/videos/wat...54-british-stallion-studs-ebf-novice-stakes-5 The bookies haven't missed Rhythm Master and I would be inclined not to play at 9/2 with him taking such a massive step up in class.
They interviewed somebody connected with Minzaal immediately after he had won the Gimcrack and he ignored their desperate attempts to talk him up as a Guineas contender and nominated the Middle Park as his most likely next port of call. He certainly justified his ‘P’ from Timeform but the Gimcrack form does not have a great look to it with Mohawk King going out like a light in the final furlong and Yazaman emptying as well. I am wondering if the change of tactics on the Hannon colt was a bad idea (was held up when beating Minzaal on debut) but the Haggas colt is a total mystery. Minzaal looked like a horse full of speed in winning the race with something to spare and I would be more interested in the Commonwealth Cup market than the 2000 Guineas one for next year. These days there tends to be too many who will not accept that their charge is a sprinter or a middle distance type and try the trip to HQ, usually with bad results. With Hamdan Al Maktoum winning just about everything at the moment, I think he is more likely to keep the horse to sprinting as he will surely have something else for the Guineas. If he goes to the Dewhurst that will lead to more Guineas hype. Looking at the pedigree, the dam Pardoven never raced but the only real stamina in the pedigree is on the dam’s distaff side with the grand-dam Dancing Prize being a maiden by Sadlers Wells out of Aim For The Top, who was trained by Sir Michael Stoute for Cheveley Park.
The Tactical form lines had been awful since he last ran and he only managed 5th place today. The filly Campanelle did the business but I think it was an underwhelming renewal given those contenders who did not turn up. Nando Parrado ran better than I thought he would considering it hasn't looked a good Coventry this year. He was two lengths behind the favourite though and if you want to win these good races you really should be sending your best colt and Cox didn't do that, leaving Supremacy sitting twiddling his hooves at home. The best of the French was 40/1 shot Acapulco Gold in 4th place and you can pretty much put a pen through the French horses when our raiders are in the field. Cheveley Park for Campanelle you would think. Nothing else to take from the race than that really. Hopefully we will see all the best of the generation clash there. There seems to be a cotton wool mentality these days anda lot of ducking and diving before finally facing the bigger guns at the 11th hour of the season. Like the fillies, the best colts this season seem to be operating at 6F. Battleground and Master Of The Seas are the only real exception with their 7F form but the rest have been looking like sprinters long term. Of course there is the usual bluster from connections about, "Not necessarily a Sprinter, not just a horse for this season" etc but yet again this year the ones who were dubious at a mile have proven not to have stepped up and succeeded at the trip.
I have to say that I wondered whether the combination of the soft ground and the extra furlong would be the undoing of Campanelle; however, my bias was based solely on the fact that it lives with Wesley Ward, known for his American speedballs. I thought the ground would definitely be against it. The Queen’s Tactical was a huge disappointment but Nando Parrado indicated that his Coventry run was not a fluke, although it still remains to be seen if that was a mediocre renewal. At Sandown, Etonian won the Solario fair and square but given the absence of any reliable yardstick in the field he looks short enough for the 2000 Guineas based on just this bare form. He certainly looks like he will only be a miler but I suspect that the runner-up went into more notebooks. King Vega was not knocked around when Murphy realised that he could not catch the winner and he stayed on up the hill to nick second close home in the manner of a horse that I next expect to see in the Royal Lodge or the Futurity. At this stage, both of them look more like horses with potential to fulfil rather than finished articles but I would rather be on 50/1 King Vega for the Derby than 25/1 Etonian.
Yazaman is easily explained. He won his maiden and then stepped up in class for the Windsor Castle. He was not expected there as a 20/1 shot but was 2nd, with 40/1 runner Muker in 3rd. The Royal Ascot races were always going to be different this year and there was always a chance that the ones sharp enough to do well there would later be caught up and passed by the better horses being kept for later season targets. Yazaman went on the run 2nd again, this time in the 6F Superlative but it was the same horse, Tactical, who beat him and by about the same amount. It is logical to assume that these young horses are improving with every race but perhaps that is just not what has happened this season. Yazaman went into the Richmond as favourite and I thought he had a reasonable chance in a moderate renewal but he came under pressure a long way out and had no answer to Supremacy's pace. Maybe he didn't like Goodwood but I think the problem he has is that he is not progressing. Yesterday saw Yazaman popular enough in the betting behind the favourite but he was only 6th. His last few Racing Post Ratings read 97, 103, 102 and 99 for yesterday's run. That is pretty steady form and seems to indicate that he is static and simply not progressing. My own suspicion is that Yazaman has probably run worse than 99 in the Gimcrack. Minzaal was impressive but the race has been framed by the Racing Post as follows:- Minzaal 114 (Up 28 lbs) Devilwala 107 (Up 21 lbs) Mystery Smiles 105 (Up 13 lbs) Escape Route 103 (Up 8 lbs) Mohawk King 102 (Up 19 lbs) Yazaman 99 (Down 3 lbs) The things to note for me are Mohawk King improving 19 lbs but only managing to be 5th and a general suspicion that the whole race could easily be downgraded and still leave plenty of improvement from several of the participants. Looking back at last season's Gimcrack, Richard Hannon's Threat won the race but he didn't impress me. I thought it was a bit laboured but the Racing Post gave him 113 for the win. In doing so, they had to uprate the runner up Lord Of The Lodge to 109. The official Handicapper also bought into the sudden improvement from the Burke 16/1 shot and raised his handicap mark to 109. Since then Lord Of The Lodge has run to the following Racing Post Ratings:- 99, 82, 81 and had his mark dropped 2 lbs to 107. It seems like a clear case that he was overrated for being runner-up in a Gimcrack and I think the assessors have this childlike faith that a Group race will throw up a similar quality winner year after year. I don't buy into that thinking myself and time will tell how good this year's Gimcrack will actually be. Threat does not seem to have trained on this season and I never saw him as a Guineas prospect. Gimcrack winners have a strong trend of being sprinters and only really Rock Of Gibraltar managed to buck that. Minzaal's sire did not race at 3YO and went straight to stud. It remains to be seen how his progeny fare in their second seasons but for now I couldn't have Minzaal on my mind for the 2000 Guineas and Skybet's odds of 16/1 for that contest look ridiculous to me. There could be a good Middle Park in prospect this season and Minzaal will be a player but once again it will likely be sprinters who fight it out, while the real players head elsewhere over 7F and a mile.
