Surely there cannot be another fav bar one of those two. Frances hopes rest on Sarafina and you've got Ballydoyles number one. Workforce might not even line up, Reliable Man looks as good as out. The other well supported French horse, Galikova, simply does not have the support of Sarafina, even though she does have the confidence of her trainer.
I think it looks too good to be true to be honest. And that is the one thing putting me off. Unless Workforce is backed off the boards come the day, which seems highly highly unlikely given the prevailing ground conditions, then one of those two must surely start favourite?! What am i missing?!
I would be hugely surprised if money came for Workforce. Yes he is the reigning champ but as a 4 Y O and on the back of a solid but unspectacular season, the punters won't be steaming in. So You Think will have an array of support and Sarafina has been utterly rock solid at the head of the market. Unless there is some sort of catch I don't know about, it looks a very good bet.
I've never known an Arc De Triomphe like this one...will he run, won't he run; going is currently good to soft but will it be good to firm or firm; unbelievable price fluctuations; very late supplement (Masked Marvel); final runners still not known. What other twists are yet to come? Tell me if I'm wrong, but I've never heard so many doubts by trainers as to whether they'll run their horses on good to firm/firm going! Didn't Workforce win the Derby on fast ground? Don't all the top horses run every year at Royal Ascot on similarly fast going? Haven't most top horses traditionally run on all types of going? I've made no secret of the fact I think the Group Ones are becoming a bit of a joke - the best horses are only running 3-5 times a year, and now they're wanting excuses not to compete in the creme de la creme of Flat races! Furthermore, how good is this field? It strikes me as pretty ordinary. As it stands, I think anything could win it? What do other members think?
Im sick and tired of hearing about trainers pulling their horses out because they arent getting their preferred ground!!.This IS the most prestigious middle distance race on the planet,won by some of the greatest horses of all time.Of course every horse horse isnt going to get their optimum conditions, if they did we would be having 4 or 5 runner Group 1,s...oh yeh sorry we already do. Its about time trainers and owners realised why they first got into this game. Is it about the glory or the money?
I concur- too much concern about protecting stud fees etc. There is no shame in defeat as long as you have a crack at the best race in the world, surely? It's about time we dropped the hype and just raced the best against the best, rather than having trainers living this false dream that some horses are better than they actually are. If you're beat fair and square, so what- at least you'll finally know whether you were good enough to be the greatest.
Is it possible that Uk trainers have been seduced by societies opinions of what a horse is capable of? Public opinion is mostly crap. How many folk believe we recieve regular visits from space people, or can tell the future by looking into a tea cup? Have trainers begun to think that a horse can only put a few good flat runs together per year? If this was right, there would be a horse left alive in the wild. They would all be in the guts of carnivores. I'm not for a second saying the we in Oz have it right, and the Europe has it wrong, but if we can race our top animals more often, then why not the Northern Hemisphere? I can't help but feel that there is a bit too much "cuddling" going on. We here are not immune from it though. There has been a trend developing, where we pack off our crack 2 year olds, never to be seen again.
Good morning, Cyclonic. Doesn't exclusivity in horse racing breed contempt and protectionism? Let's face it, the masses can watch the sport and cheer, but get seriously involved? No Way! It's not a democracy, rather an oligarchy. Britain has always been good at these exclusive and expensive sports and pastimes which the man in the street simply cannot afford. Sailing, Equestrianism, and Motor Racing are other examples. Furthermore, though Vincent O'Brien was certainly one of the greatest men in horse racing history (probably the greatest), did he really know what he would unleash when he and Robert Sangster turned racing into a "breeding operation" as opposed to 'simple horse racing?' In many ways, racing has just become a joke....how on earth can you start to comprehend a sport which demands an additional entry for a race eg. Masked Marvel, has to pay 100,000 Euros for the privilege? What does that say to you? Wasn't the whole idea of sport to simply 'take part?' That's become the biggest joke of all! Doubtless Baron De Coubertin would quake in his grave if he could see how sport has become bastardised in the world..... Come and watch the Olympics, it'll only cost you up to £700 a ticket, but we'll put you through hell and then you've still no chance of getting one! Sorry, Cyclonic, I'm way off track here. Must terminate! All the best to you.
Tam good morning to to you also. "Let's face it, the masses can watch the sport and cheer, but get seriously involved? No Way! It's not a democracy, rather an oligarchy." The statement of the week. You certainly have a way with words my friend. I sit here with a huge smile on my dial, contemplating lunch, and it's not so much the food that has given my the lift. For the effort. Onya mate.
Don't mind me, Cyclonic, as both Paul Simon and my wife say- I'm still crazy after all these years! "Coming back to our sheep," as the French say, I'm beginning to believe that So You Think has a first rate chance on Sunday. His ability to lay up with the pace will be a massive asset at Longchamp, even though it won't be as large a field as normal. What do you think?
I'm a huge fan of the small field Tam. The better horses have less chance of having their races ruined by trees. The smaller the field, the better. Everybody and his dog knows I'm a So You Think fan. When people were talking a challenger for the mighty Frankel over a mile, I pushed SYT. Of course no one believed me. When he was be espoused as a specialist 10f animal, I said he'd be better over 12f. He's in the Arc up to his ears. No such thing as a certainty in racing, but they'll know he's there, when the whips are cracking. I know a lot of people are going cold on Workforce, but as far as I'm concerned, if a UK horse wins, it'll be either him or the former Aussie. I don't know too much about the French. But they seem pretty keen on their own this year. Three year olds have a decent record in this event, but to be frank, in the three or four years I've been following European racing, the older generation have not looked all that flash to me. And added to this, the last two Arcs, as far as I'm concerned, were won by very good racehorses. As I've said before, Grandad told me that a good colt will usually beat a good filly. The lads for me.
Go and find a video of the four-runner Prix Foy from Arc Trials Day. Christophe Lemaire did everything he could to get boxed in on Sarafina and just managed to scramble home. When there are small fields, hold-up horses regularly manage to find traffic trouble with the assistance of the little bloke on their back. The former Aussie is trained in Ireland, which they will tell you in a nano-second is not part of the United Kingdom.
Sorry QM, I forgot about the UK thing . Sometimes these small fields can become a walk sprint. But for the most part the better horses do win. The more trees, the more chance of being belted by a branch.
To be fair, 16 runner affairs are not small fields, I take the point that it's a smaller field than usual but this race will, as always, go against the grain for French racing and be a true test from gate to post. I'm convinced a hold up horse wins this, anyone going there should be laying the leader at the 2 pole and 1 pole and watch for something to sprout wings to collar them on the line...
So You Think (14) and Sarafina (13) have the stats against them following the old draw. Wouldn't be surprised if both drift somewhat following this. Workforce in the same stall as last term.
The final declarations for the big race are as follows: PRIX DE L’ARC DE TRIOMPHE, 2400 metres (1 mile and a half) WORKFORCE GB (4yo, 59,5kg) SIR MR. STOUTE, R. MOORE (8) ST NICHOLAS ABBEY IRE (4yo, 59,5kg) AP. O’BRIEN, JP. O'BRIEN (6) SILVER POND (4yo, 59,5kg) C. LAFFON-PARIAS, T. THULLIEZ (15) HIRUNO D’AMOUR (4yo, 59,5kg) M. KON, S. FUJITA (1) NAKAYAMA FESTA (5yo, 59,5kg) Y. NINOMIYA, M. EBINA (16) SO YOU THINK NZ (5yo, 59,5kg) AP. O’BRIEN, J. HEFFERNAN (14) SARAFINA (4yo, 58kg) A. DE ROYER DUPRE, C. LEMAIRE (13) SNOW FAIRY IRE (4yo, 58kg) EAL. DUNLOP, L. DETTORI (11) TREASURE BEACH GB (3yo, 56kg) AP. O’BRIEN, C. O’DONOGHUE (12) MEANDRE (3yo, 56kg) A. FABRE, M. GUYON (10) MASKED MARVEL GB (3yo, 56kg) J. GOSDEN, W. BUICK (5) RELIABLE MAN GB (3yo, 56kg) A. DE ROYER DUPRE, G. MOSSE (7) SHARETA IRE (3yo, 54,5kg) A. DE ROYER DUPRE, T. JARNET (9) TESTOSTERONE IRE (3yo, 54,5kg) P. BARY (S), S. PASQUIER (3) DANEDREAM GER (3yo, 54,5kg) P. SCHIERGEN, A. STARKE (2) GALIKOVA (3yo, 54,5kg) F. HEAD (S), O. PESLIER (4)
Thanks QM. So what do you think folks, a better than average Arc, or just the run of the mill renewal?
That makes things look a bit interesting. Maybe the way they get out of the stalls will be very important now.
I've fancied the Jap runners and they've got 1 and 16 ! And why do my eyes keep getting drawn to St Nicholas Abbey ? Surley he can't win... Cyc - I'd say it's a slightly better renewal than average, less complete rags, all have decent form in their%2
