Thursday's Meetings Leopardstown Flat 7 Races 12:55-4:05p.m. Windsor Flat 10 Races 1:20-6:05p.m. York Flat 7 Races 1:45-4:50p.m. Chester(E) Flat 9 Races 3:50-8:00p.m. Killarney(E) N/H 7 Races 4:15-7:15p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Good Luck
Windsor 255 Zim baby looks big at 5/2 with 365 . Zim is tested in conditions and Kirby has been booked . I am hoping / expecting a good strong run from the front which should see of the rivals .
York 1.45 - On My Way 40/1 3.45 - Bharani Star 20/1 e/w singles and double Windsor 5.05 - Fair Man 8/1 win and e/w treble Good luck everyone.
In the first at York one which is attracting some support is Umm Kulthun 14's to 6's is enough to make you think. Ran in a 5f Maiden against last time out seemingly looking very green but came home with a hell of a rattle which would suggest some improvement can be expected over 6. Up in grade but must be well thought of, so a chance is taken on giving Sacred something to think about.
Sacred is favourite in some lists for next seasons 1000 Guineas and a win today will see her as clear favourite, potentially by a fair way. I don't see her as a valid contender for the mile Classic at the moment, simply because her two runs thus far have been at 5F and such fillies tend not to go on to be Guineas types. She steps up to 6F today but even that distance at York had tended to favour sprinters in general and doesn't have the record of the winners going on to win the Classic the following season that you would be looking for. The more immediate question is whether she can win the Lowther that opens proceedings at York today? The odds of reward are currently 15/8 and on the face of it she doesn't have the advantage in rating that would warrant her odds, with Santosha only 1 lb behind on official handicap figures. Looking at Sacred though, you would feel she is going to improve for the extra furlong today and I have felt for some years now that you need a filly with 5F speed to win a Lowther. Sacred travelled like the winner at Royal Ascot but was mown down by Wesley Ward's Campanelle in the closing stages. Unusually for a Ward 5F horse it wasn't blazing speed that won the day. The winner there has been favourite in the build up to the Prix Morny but may not get the ground there that will suit with her stepping up to 6F for the Group 1. In the meantime, I feel Sacred is going to be tough to beat here and in my mind she was a 6F shot, so I will be with her at 15/8 and anticipate that her win will see her a probable poor value Fav for the Guineas in the aftermath. The well backed but unconventionally named Umm Kulthum, piqued my interest, so I Googled the handle and found it was an Egyptian singer who passed away in 1975. She apparently was revered by Bob Dylan and Robert Plant amongst other rock legends. She sang contralto and it was said she never sang a line the same way twice, which is something that has also been said of myself, however, in my case that is because I couldn't hold a note in a bucket. Digressing, I can't quite stretch from a class 5 Thirsk maiden to a Group 2 at York in one jump, so I will wish the singer's namesake well but back Sacred. To make up a double, it didn't take long to find the second leg because I think that Devious Company is going to be very tough to beat in the following race. His profile of 1122 might indicate an early season type who has not gone on but in this instance the two second place finishes were behind Battleground and Master Of The Seas in Group 2 races and those two colts head the betting for next year's 2000 Guineas. That form sets Devious Company out as a clear standout on form and he will be tough to beat in the race won by Mum's Tipple last year. The leading question with Devious Company is that he drops to 6F after four runs at 7F but in his last two starts he was in a good position going into the final furlong and was only caught by the two classy colts who won the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket and the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. I think his class offsets the change in trip and again he was a 6/4 shot in my mind coming here, so again 15/8 looked appetising. Trainer Tom Dascombe isn't getting many winners at all this past fortnight but I scanned through the runners he has had and there were tons of no hopers based on their big odds, I will be surprised if he cannot win this Yearling race after two runner up places in Group 2 races. I did see Uncle Jumbo with roughly the same amount of tips as Devious Company here and after only 1 start the Grey gelding could well have more to come after landing his only race to date. No winners have come from that race though and Devious Company's official handicap rating of 107 sets a very high bar for the Ryan horse to reach and on adjusted Racing Post Ratings the more exposed Devious Company has a 24 lb advantage coming in. I could not desert the horse whose only defeats came behind the colts who sit at the head of next year's 2000 Guineas betting but I also had a saver each-way single on Uncle Jumbo at 15/2 each-way five places because I think he'll be in the first five home under Ryan Moore. Also did a SF Devious Company/Uncle Jumbo. 1.45 York Sacred 15/8 2.15 York Devious Company 15/8 Win double 2,15 York Uncle Jumbo 15/2 each-way five places (William Hill or Paddy Power) Devious Company/Uncle Jumbo SF Will see how those races go before any other potential bets.
I saw an oddity when looking through the stats of Yorkshire Oaks contender Frankly Darling. There is a feature where they give the highest win rating and highest place rating of horses who subsequently ran after being behind Frankly Darling in the Newcastle maiden she trotted up in to kick off her season. The highest place rating of 130 jumped out as a "Must be an error" to my first glance but when checking it out it came from a horse who was second in a two and a half mile Chase at Perth. That explains that then but hardly a form boost for Frankly Darling there. Looking at Frankly Darling, she seemed ill at ease at Epsom but her collateral form doesn't look very good. Zero winners have come from the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot in 14 starts since and only one winner came from her Maiden win at Newcastle and that was off 85 in a handicap and 25 subsequent runs have come since Frankly Darling landed that race. Mind you the Epsom Oaks doesn't look too hot either but Love did demolish them. I'll be surprised if she can't win well in a race where the forecast looks the only play if you want a bet. Could be pointers for the jumps season mind you.
In the 2.45 York SHELIR is the one I shall be backing. Last year when trained by Dermot Weld Shelir ran in the Irish 2000 guineas when rated 101, he has since joined the O'mera yard and can now run off a rating of 90 and is now looking a seriously well handicapped horse. O'mera seems to have targeted this race with four representatives. The other plus is the ease in the ground as, being by Dark Angel he should appreciate the cut in the ground, being drawn on the rails should also help and at 25/1 represents a sporting e.w bet
York 16,20 Basilicata 12/1 e/w Killarney 18,15 Alice Johnston 9/4 18,45 Act In Time 5/1 Won this race the last two years.
Fast becoming one of my cliff horses - not looked at the race yet but likely I'll be going over once again!
Terrible yesterday from me. York looks pretty uninspiring today so just the one bet 2:45 - Sir Busker 9/2 Win Only
Today's avoiders 145 Santosha - backed with Sky, money back if placed 215 Uncle Jumbo, could be anything. Probably an also-ran! 245 Walhaan and Shelir both ew 315 Love is all you need. Plus deep pockets 345 Albaflora to make light work of this. Good luck all
First 4 favs could well oblige at York, but wouldn't put LOVE in at such a short price so will do the first 3 instead and hope that Grendel is right on the first two.
Just five have decided to take on Love in the Yorkshire Oaks and it is notable that only one is not from the Classic generation. Since it was opened up to older horses, I am wondering if there has ever been fewer run. With prize money down to sixth, they are all going to get something and there are at least five figures on offer for finishing fourth or higher. As the SportingLife.com blog says, “It must be Love, Love, Love.” The strict formline gives Frankly Darling no chance with the Oaks winner but even allowing for her not handling the track it is still hard to see her getting much closer except for the going, that might not be to Love’s liking (0-4 on easy ground). Franconia is the unknown quantity of the race but has yet to race on easy ground and has a stone to make up on the favourite. Arguably, fellow Listed winner Alpinista has as much chance as Franconia but as the only front runner in the field she is hard to fancy for the steal. Manuela De Vega is looking for the Red Rose and White Rose Oaks double but clearly she wants soft ground to blunt her juniors after her Lancashire Oaks penalty kick. The form pick for the forecast is Nassau runner-up One Voice but that form may not be that great as fourth Queen Power was subsequently beaten further by Alpinista at Salisbury. Whilst the field for the Lowther is numerically big, it looks very easy to put a line through half of them; and what is left fits the usual two categories: (1) lots of potential if you are prepared to gamble on it being fulfilled; or (2) good form in the early season juvenile pattern races. Sacred has been saved for this step up to six after chasing home Campanelle in the Queen Mary (with a couple of these behind) while Santosha won the Princess Margaret, but the third in both those races, Caroline Dale (Santosha’s stablemate) has let the form down on Sunday. William Haggas is clearly keen to win the Galtres Stakes providing three of the ten starters. Lady G is still a maiden but the form figures read 432 and she contested a similar event last time. The Queen’s Award Scheme chased home Alpinista and steps up two furlongs here but has never run on easy ground. Sea of Faith is yet to see a racecourse this year but signed off with a handicap win on easy ground in August 2019, so perhaps has had her problems missing the autumn. Albaflora’s second in the Musidora does not look so good after the winner’s run in the Juddmonte but Kirsten Rausing’s filly has only run twice and still has potential. Golden Wand was runner-up to Franconia last time, so that one’s performance may see the odds change as this race follows the Yorkshire Oaks; however, I think last year’s runner-up VIVIONN looks the right one, having warmed up in a Group 3 behind Manuela De Vega and Fanny Logan, she may have been laid out for today as her owners search for black type.
SHE'S SO NICE looks overpriced at 28/1 in the opener. TINOCHIO is a tentative pick for race 2. PROMPTING was a useful winner at Goodwood and will be in the frame again here. SIR BUSKER though might well be the answer in this race If LOVE handles the ground then she wins the 3.15 but if not i wouldn't be surprised to see FRANKLY DARLING come home in front.
No real excuses for Sacred, she is a slightly awkward looking filly who seems to need cover and has a slightly odd looking action. She came there with every chancd but got worried out of it by the Irish filly. Santosha blew the start and could not get into it. Overall I don't feel it was a strong renewal of the Lowther and it has been a sprinter's race of late. I did say that Sacred looked a bad favourite for the 1000 Guineas and perhaps she just ran a bit short at the 6F today, you can comfortably double her Guineas odds to 50/1 after that and fans of Campanelle will have been looking for a better showing from Sacred to boost her form heading to the Prix Morny. Regarding the Prix Morny, I decided to back Dandalla for that French Group 1 over 6F. The filly is 3/3 and has won on soft and at 6F. Her form has been working out well and with the Queen's Tactical heading the betting for the Morny with Wesley Ward's Campanelle, I thought Dandalla ticked plenty of boxes and she was 7/1, which appealed to me as value. With some potential boosts possible to the Dandalla form later this week I thought it worth taking the risk to get the 7/1. If she is pulled out that's all part of the gamble but I thought there was a chance her odds could contract later in the week. Later on the Galtres is a race where only 3 of the last 20 winners were not 3YOs, that suggests that the older fillies perhaps have less chance but the 3YOs in this race look quite weak. I probably won't play.
