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Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 19th. August 2020

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Aug 18, 2020.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    Wednesday's Meetings

    Killarney

    Flat 8 Races 1:00-4:40p.m.
    Stratford
    N/H 9 Races 1:35-5:50p.m.
    York
    Flat 7 Races 1:45-4:50p.m.
    Sligo
    N/H 7 Races 1:50-4:55p.m.
    Bath(E)
    Flat 10 Races 3:25-8:00p.m.

    Racecards
    At The Races
    Racing Post
    Sporting Life

    Good Luck <ok>
     
    #1
  2. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    #2
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  3. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I see Mogul is in the Voltigeur at York this week. He was available at 3/1 earlier, with the John Gosden trained Darain backed into the favourite spot.

    The expensive brother of Too Darn Hot started well enough in a Class 5 Novice but surprisingly stayed at the same level next time and was workmanlike in producing a performance that had to be rated slightly lower than his first effort. His Official Rating of 96 seemed generous enough in the circumstances and he is facing proper horses now, if not the most inspiring vintage.

    Mogul is 2/1 favourite now, with part of his original odds being whether he would be the one from the O'Brien yard to come over and he is the sole representative from Aidan's yard. Mogul is officially 13 lbs higher than Darain on 109 but he also has a lot more experience of racing and the Gosden horse will have learned very little from a second outing in a Class 5 Novice race.

    William Haggas's Roberto Escobarr put in an improved and promising performance in putting previous winners to the sword by 4 lengths last time but Brentford Hope and others have disappointed from that race since. I would question whether the son of Galileo should really be 6 lbs lower than Darain, given that his Class 5 Novice win was better looking to me than the one the Gosden colt won but he's surely on a par at least with the 2nd Fav and is more than double the odds.

    Funnily enough, English King's old sparring partner Berkshire Rocco is in the Voltigeur but as the complete outsider on some lists at 14/1, with Juan Elcano the same price with some firms.

    Highland Chief and Subjectivist will lock horns with Mogul again, after being second and third to him last time. Highland Chief is four times the price of Mogul, with only three parts of a length to find and Mark Johnston's improver Subjectivist was a further three parts of a length away in third. Personally speaking I find it hard to follow any Johnston horse with 100% expectation that they will run the same race again but he did put it up to them for a long way at Goodwood.

    For me, Pyledriver might be the bet in the Voltigeur. He was no factor in the Derby but he wouldn't be the first horse not to give their form at Epsom. If we rewind to the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot we see Pyledriver winning the Group 2 contest by two lengths, with Mogul only 4th when a shade of odds on. It was said that Mogul badly needed that race but he needs to find five lengths from that race to beat Pyledriver now. The Muir trained colt has only run twice at the 12F trip and has won one, so if we forgive the Derby effort he must have some chance, even if he does have to concede 3 lbs, because his 110 rating is 1 lb higher than Mogul on 109. Given that Mogul is 2/1 and Pyledriver 12/1, I would much rather play at the bigger odds for an interest.

    Looking at the Voltigeur field you could only really conclude that the colts all being rated 110 or less is an indication that none of them are Arc prospects. Darian is unbeaten but is 3/1 because he is trained by Gosden and cost a Gazillion at the sales. Two Class 5 Novices and now going to Group 2 seems to be a crazy bit of pricing up.

    I'll forgive Pyledriver his poor show at Epsom and hope he can bounce back.

    2.45 York Pyledriver 12/1

    Hopefully doesn't run like he is suffering from piles or I'll need the Anusol myself :eek:
     
    #3
  4. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    The ITV Racing team are unlikely to be spending much time on those podiums that they usually utilise paddock side. :emoticon-0133-wait:

    If the gorgeous Susan Powell has got the weather forecast right (and the local lovely Abbie Dewhurst agrees with her), it is going to rain on the Knavesmire for the first day of the Ebor meeting and that will be accompanied by quite a strong breeze.

    So it might be worth factoring that in when making selections as the current ‘good’ ground is unlikely to stay that way as the day proceeds. :emoticon-0120-doh:
     
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  5. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I don't think the Juddmonte is as competitive as it looks.

    Lord North did it well last time but I am not sure how strong his form is overall. His win from Elarqam by a short head looks awful now and his win from Addeybb has a questionable look based on subsequent events.

    Magical tends to start at short odds and win weak races. Her odds here of 7/2 tell their own story and she tends to lose when not the warm or hot favourite.

    Kameko has been badly placed in my opinion. The Derby was a wasted journey because he was never put into a position to win and we got no true indication as to where exactly his stamina ran out at Epsom. He still fared best of the fancied runners that day. Dropped right back down to the mile for the Sussex Stakes, the jockey never gave him any chance of winning because he got boxed in on the rails and could not get a run. The irony was that he may have been able to get out and come with a run had it been a 10F race and the horse has basically been denied the chance of winning either of his last two races because of the jockey.

    I think Ghayyiath will be tough to catch at the York track and if there is one who may beat him I think it is Kameko, who won the 2000 Guineas well but has been placed in a chopping and changing of trip cycle. I can't remember many horses who went mile, 12f, mile and ran to the same level in all three races. I thought Kameko would have gone close in the Sussex with a clear run and his Derby run surely indicated 10F was within his grasp.

    I've had a win bet on Kameko and a straight forecast Ghayyiath/Kameko as a saver.

    3.15 York Kameko 5/1 and Ghayyiath/Kameko SF
     
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  6. Grecian Mick

    Grecian Mick Well-Known Member

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    Easy peasy

    Will Buick racing out of his skin recently and today he gets at least a double for the boys in blue, 2.15 CLOUDBRIDGE 7/4 and 3.15 GHAIYYATH 6/5 pays a touch over 5/1.
     
    #6
  7. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    This could get costly but Tomorrow is the day that Ghaiyyath gets found (this year anyway <laugh> ) and the minute he gets hassled on the lead and things don’t go his way he won’t like it! And there are a couple of scenarios I can see happening. First of all I was steaming at Aidan for not sending in a pacemaker but looking at it he won’t need one. The key horse being Rose of Kildare she is your typical mark Johnson horse who gets better with every race and the Change of tactics in the Musidora going from pillar to post (practically anyway) really bought the best out of her. Fanning I Reckon will be looking to the same again. And yes she may struggle to keep up with Ghaiyyath, however she will be constantly pestering and importantly not allowing Buick that breather to allow him to kick in again. With Ryan getting magical very nicely Settled In begind those and start to make some significant headway 4f with Ryan not really moving 2f out Buick starts to get lower on the saddle and she serves it up to him 1f out they battle and out then asserts her dominance towards the line. With lord north just missing out on second to Ghaiyyath and Kameko in behind (because this bunch of 3yos colts arnt really anything special)

    the other scenario and imo this will be the most likely one will be Magical will intend to sit behind Ghaiyyath and really use her stamina to some good use,with Rose Of Kildare being unable to go the pace at all and really lacking in any kind of quality. Ryan will just be snapping at Buicks heels or not far off anuwuab again not allowing William that breather. Again move up to him at the 2f marker and really battle it out will be going hammer and tongues with Magicals stamina winning her the race!! The only danger in this will be setting It up for a horse like Lord North who will be more than happy to sit out the back Get settled and if he is within a couple of lengths come the 1f marker and they have gone hard at the front all the way I can see him really using turn of foot and make some serious challenge and Just pick off the leaders.

    Howver Ghayyaith will get beat this is his biggest test this year. Enable, Stradivarius werent fit with their races being stepping stones to other ones. Japan takes about 10 races to get fit (as proven last year) granted he is a better horse than AVD and Defoe wasn’t the same horse this year before we Sadly lost him. Magical the fact they bought her back from being a broodmare tells you something and she’s looked even better at this year don’t forget if it wasn’t for enable she would be breeders cup , an eclipse, a Yorkshire oaks winner. She would be going down as one of Aidans best mares he’s had

    Or the jockeys may just do what they did in the eclipse and just wrap the race up and put a big bow on it and just give it to Buick. But if he does win ( I will take him again) He will have to go down as a serious player in the Arc
     
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  8. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    My attempt at the York card:

    1:45 - Hyperfocus 12/1 & Copper Knight 18/1 Both ew 5 places and rev fc
    2:15 - Praise Of Shadows 10/1 Win
    2:45 - Roberto Escobarr 5/1 Win
    3:15 - Ghaiyyth or Kameko No bet for me just hope i get chance to watch it at work
    3:45 - Here And Now 12/1 & Rajinsky 14/1 Both ew 4 places and rev fc
    4:20 - Dandys Beano 18/1 Ew
    4:50 - Churchill Bay 4/1 Win
     
    #8
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2020
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  9. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    2.15 Praise of Shadows 11/1
    2.45 Darain 7/2
    3.15 Lord North 7/2
     
    #9
  10. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I think Mogul will get beaten and it wouldn't surprise me if Love got beaten

    So there's a double for you <doh>.
     
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  11. LordGyllene

    LordGyllene Well-Known Member

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    Stratford

    2:05 Phoebus Lescribaa

    Good 3rd at this track over fences last year when with FOB (mark 102). 2 runs this year for Robin Dickin over hurdles not without promise in my opinion. Races today with lowest ever handicap mark (100). Stratford suits front runners so could reach a place at least.
     
    #11
  12. LordGyllene

    LordGyllene Well-Known Member

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    Stratford

    2.35 Justice Knight

    Another front runner who will be suited by this track. Stable couldn't be in better form this summer with 2 winners from 3 runners. Has run well fresh in the past. Don't think recent mark demands to much because run a sound race when 4th in a big field at Doncaster in February (headed after last ("usual 4 out), rallied run-in, kept on final furlong"). Todays race seems to be easier. Conditional takes off 5 lb. Worth an each way chance with 20/1 on offer.
     
    #12
  13. hammyend

    hammyend Member

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    #13
  14. hammyend

    hammyend Member

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    I backed Highland Chief in the Derby,unfortunately this developed into 'two races' - the winner enjoying an uncontested lead and the reminder of the field having a race of their own, incidentally Highland Chief finished in front of Pyledriver but six lengths behind Mogul,however, in a truly run race at Goodwood he was just 3/4's of a length behind Mogul,despite looking unsuited by the track. The key to Highland Chiefs chance is the going,if the forecast is correct we could be looking at soft ground which would be a bonus and at 11/1 looks value against a 2/1 favourite who he has 3/4 of a length to find. HIGHLAND CHIEF is the one to be on.
     
    #14
  15. LordGyllene

    LordGyllene Well-Known Member

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    Stratford 3.35

    Beneagles

    On a very dangerous mark, has run well fresh in the past and good conditional up with Lilly Pinchin. Could be the type who has appreciated a change of scenery after changing hands from Alan King to Martin Keighly.
     
    #15
  16. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    York

    13,45 A Momentofmadness 22/1 e/w (five places)

    Fourth in this race in 2017 and sixth in 2019.

    Stratford

    17,20 Mon Palais 9/2
     
    #16
  17. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    A Momentofmadness non runner.
     
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  18. Steveo

    Steveo Well-Known Member

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    they are my 2 bankers of the week!
     
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  19. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    A disappointing turnout for the Juddmonte, obviously scared off by Ghaiyyath. It is reasonable to assume that the favourite will set out to make all the running, but will he be allowed to have it all his own way or will the rag Rose Of Kildare, winner of the Musidora over course and distance, take him on? She is one of the few horses to come out of the 1000 Guineas and win anything. Magical’s career record speaks volumes. She hoovers up small field races when the opposition is not great and she will run to her 122 rating making her a good yardstick. To win here she needs a couple to underperform. Principle amongst those is LORD NORTH, who will not care how much it rains and has improved rapidly from winning the Cambridgeshire to winning a Group 1 at Royal Ascot. I think the three year old Kameko does get ten furlongs but is he really good enough to get past Ghaiyyath? Can Murphy find trouble with just four opponents?

    In the Great Voltiguer, the form figures suggest that Juan Elcano is nailed on for second with his record this term reading 543. He will not be inconvenienced by any rain but Gosden and O’Brien will have an idea how good he is from their runners in the Dante where he was third. Were Darain from any other yard and boasting a less illustrious pedigree, he would be nearer the price of Juan Elcano: two easy wins in Mickey Mouse races leave him plenty more to find than his odds suggest. The same can be said for Roberto Escobarr, although he only won one. Taking the formlines of Berkshire Rocco, his running with English King gives several of these better chances; however, rain would help him. Pyledriver was an also-ran in the Derby and previous to that beat Mogul at Royal Ascot but comes here having to concede 3lb to all. The first three from the Gordon Stakes lock horns again and it seems reasonable to expect Subjectivist to go from the front again, a task that may be aided by this flat track as he overdid it on Goodwood’s undulations. It is not inconceivable that he could give these the slip if the others play this wrong.

    There are a couple in the support races that owe me money but I do not fancy their chances so I expect one to win at a big price.
     
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  20. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    Stratford

    17,50 Bravo Buddy 11/4
     
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