Feed the numbers into the old, creaking machine, give the handle a good cranking and out spits a whole mess of next to worthless information built on preconceived assumptions. And if the result doesn't fit the standard model, fiddle with a few knobs until all the belching, acrid smoke begins to abate and the numbers begin to look enticing enough to reel in the unsuspecting gambler. God save us all from these self appointed Pope's of the Punt.
It's hard to say Grendel. Maybe that's why I no longer punt. For me, there just seems too much dependence on a system that gets it so badly wrong so often. But like you asked .... what other way is there?
Easy Cyc, if you have the time (which I haven't) 1. Pick the right races to bet on. That doesn't mean bet in them but it does mean don't bet in any others. This narrows down the number of horses to assess 2. Watch videos of all the horses in the selected race(s) 3: Note comparative times of races on same day/track 4. Note ground, track, sectionals, how race unfolded 5. Do any of the horses watched look like future winners and/or look as though they are more than capable of winning at higher level? How have other horses in the race done since and/or before 6. Does it look as though the horse(s) noted would show improvement over a different distance, and does the pedigree back up that view 7. Will the selected horse(s) be suited by the distance, track and conditions of the upcoming race? 8. If the horse(s) have run fast times, did they win easily? Are they carrying less weight now? 9. If you have found a race with just one, or two bettable horses, look at the Timeform rating and comments. If one is clear top rated with a "p" and marked "one to note" that is a bonus back it if odds reasonable (eg if it looks like it should be odds on and isn't) 10. If, after 9, there are 2 bettable horses in the race back them both if the odds permit, otherwise leave race alone These are the ones to bet relatively large stakes. If there is a slight doubt, bet small or leave alone You will miss winners and have losers but I think you will have enough winners to make it pay If you don't have the time for such studying, don't expect to make a profit In any case don't bet what you can't afford to lose Simple ,
There was a great article posted on the BBC website the other day written by their cricket statistician (and some time comedian) Andy Zaltzman. At the start of the article he detailed how, in the 1980s, the bowling attack for the England Test team was selected by feeding the County Championship bowling averages to a goat and then using the bowlers whose names came out the other end first. (There may have been a modicum of truth to that as TMS commentator Jonathan Agnew was in the Test team in the 1980s) Now that we appear to have six or seven bowlers vying for three or four places, he outlined the pros and cons of each and then reached the conclusion that the way to decide England’s best bowling attack was to bring back the goat.
I don't though smokey. That's what I would do if I were to bet, which I don't; apart from the VBS which isn't so risky
I understand your ten-point plan but you would not get through assessing many races a day if you watched videos of every horse. I usually start the same way that you do: eliminate the bad races. Nowadays the BHA gives races ratings that seem to be largely related to the prize money on offer. So I pretty much scratch anything Class 5 or Class 6 because the horses are unlikely to run to form consistently if they are poor enough to be competing at this level. I avoid selling races because they are usually low quality and, one suspects, probably crooked – get the horse fit enough to win one race so we can sell it. I usually give claiming races a miss because allowing trainers/owners to handicap their own horse is an excellent way to fiddle their official ratings. I avoid maiden races – full of horses that have never won a race and any could improve by an unknown amount. I also generally avoid races with less than eight runners because they are often falsely run. I then look at the betting. If there is some short-priced favourite with solid form figures, then that is of no interest to me as I do not back each-way for a place hoping that the favourite fluffs its lines and I get a win bonus. After you take into account your lost win stake, your place horse was odds-on. So having found a potentially suitable race, a quick assessment of each runner usually sees me put a line through half the field, so then I go and look at the form in detail. As you say, ground and distance the key factors.
Agree with that QM. I hardly ever look at more than 2 races a day, usually none. The big meetings with big prize money are a problem because they are all trying to win and fewer races can be immediately dismissed. I avoid the same races as you plus races with unraced horses.(chance of a decent horse turning up) and handicaps with fully exposed horses (by definition should all dead heat and too dependent on luck). I don't have time to look at videos but the reason I say do so is because I have missed some good priced winners by ignoring some horses (even not noticing them amongst the runners ). I still slip up by not considering every horse in the race There are always exceptions to any rule but in general I like improving horses (so normally, 4yos and younger) with a run this season full of promise. Can't really expect fancy prices but I have had a few at decent (early) prices, 3 at 12/1, 1 at 11/1, 13/2, 5/1. From 94 bets I have had 37 winners (3 odds on, 10/11, 4/5 and 4/6). My family continue to urge me to bet with real money. At some time I will but at present I'm still cagey as I consider I can't afford to risk losing. One day - and I'll probably lose it all
I have the same problem with football bets. I only bet on quality teams in quality leagues. So thats the top 3 in England, Spain, Italy, Germany, sometimes France, Portugal, Holland. I can make a profit easily with fivers, tenners, twenties. The problem comes when you up that to a ton or more if you want to make proper money. You then get pressure with that and you read the scenarios slightly different due to that pressure by over analysing. Then you lose.
Can't remember betting on a football game in my life, no thanks, not for me! They just love this system of betting in Germany, and they go crazy on betting on the most obscure football games on offer (you know, Div. 3 Slovakia, and the like). Horseracing bets are only available in one, maybe two, shops in Munich, all the rest it's football only. Seem to have mean-looking Middle East gentlemen managing them too. The German thoroughbred bloodstock and racing industry still thrives though. German horses have won the Arc a few times, and in spite of what you read on here sometimes, their Group 1 races take a bit of winning, and well worth it in prize money too. As for me in retirement, I just have one, maybe two, bets a week, all stakes modest, so I am a genuine '2-bob Jonah' am proud to say! The only thing I ever did for 'big' money was the Stock Market, mostly on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. When I was working, I had a fairly large portfolio, all medium-term investments as I could get a bit out-of-touch sometimes abroad. Luckily, did very well, and profits I made set-up our retirement nest egg. Never trusted the New York exchanges, or the brokers over there, so left them well alone, thank goodness! Good luck with your football bets, you seem to know how to do it if you keep full control on the stake levels. Well done!
One of the things that finally put an end to the punt for me, was the realisation that I no longer enjoyed the winning as much as I disliked losing. I was never a big gambler, but the occasional 50 I lost pissed me off more the happiness of winning a couple of hundred. I also realised that there had to be something wrong with me, the minor suffering didn't compensate for the pittance returned, especially when it equated to sweet bugger all compared the overall income of the house. Nothing like being robbed of the illusion that I was out to help the family finances or that I was indulging in a fun filled past time. We are well placed financially and punting was giving me the ****s so what was the point of it all?
I regularly pick a race the night before and have a WhatsApp chat with Nass about it. Yesterday was Imperial Presence, backed at 15/2. If I only bet on these races I would be worth a fortune but I have no discipline.
You make very good points, Cyc. It is a heck of a subject but, in all honesty, the only truly successful punter I have heard of was the legendary Alex Bird. There are many articles on him but this quotation from an American website gives a lot of answers on how very successful he was in the years after WW2. For example, '500 successful winning bets' blows the mind. Things are totally different nowadays, with hundreds, probably thousands, more 'Horses in Training', many of whom are nothing more than truculent and inconsistent donkeys. However, Bird took advantage of racing conditions at the time. The one true story I have never forgotten about Alex Bird is not too long before his death in 1991, he visited Newmarket for probably the last time, and, much to his surprise, scores of well-wishers were there in one of the bigger bars to give him a standing ovation! Bill Benter, Phil Bull, Harry Findlay are other successful punters apparently, but Alex Bird has to be the 'King' in my book. There are quite a few articles on Bird, but this one covers a lot of ground on his punting life: Quote: Alex Bird made a fortune in the region of millions of dollars for more than twenty years after the world war in Britain. He is regarded by many as the original professional gambler and loved horse racing. His favorite type of horse racing was any which has photo finishes. He developed a perfect system which brought him millions of sterling pounds for the entire duration of his career. He is reputed to have won more bets than anyone else while he was still active in this field. Unlike many of his peers who professionally gambled on horse racing, he paid very close attention to the times horses posted during training and in actual races. This prompted him to start betting on a horse called Mill Reef. It has been said that perhaps his biggest ever bet, on any horse, was on this horse at around 60,000 Sterling Pounds at 4/6. He would go on to win more than 100,000 Sterling Pounds for the whole duration of time he bet on Mill Reef. Alex Bird was known to be quite brilliant at picking out horse race winners. While people would bet on heavily built horses on unfavorable ground and weather conditions, he would do the opposite and bet on lightweight skinny horses. This enabled him to win many horse races through the skinny horses he continuously backed without fail. Many people and gamblers would be left baffled at Alex Bird’s seemingly miraculous ability to pick out winners. He simply knew his horses well. Even though Alex Bird died in 1991, his name has continued to be mentioned with lots of respect by people interested in horse racing worldwide. He used to be referred to as The King, mainly because of the fact that he consistently won against betting companies and other individuals. Whichever horse he bet on, would most likely win the race on which it had been entered in. At times he placed false bets all geared towards ensuring that the horse he really bet on to win, would receive favorable bets. Alex Bird co-authored a book with Terry Manners titled The Life and Secrets of Professional Punter. It was published in 1996 and details various activities and secrets together with lessons he learned during his career which spanned close to fifty years since the end of the world war to the time of his passing away. He had lived a very fascinating life and had enjoyed huge levels of success in his career. His successes and fame led him to meet with Bill Clinton before the latter became the US president. Some of the lessons Alex Bird has passed on to others include the fact that no betting should be placed on three year old maidens or on handicaps. He developed an effective system which worked wonders in bringing him great wealth purely as a professional horse racing gambler. It is difficult to imagine what he would have gone on to amass in wealth had he lived beyond the 61 years before his death in 1991. This man born in North Manchester surely had a proper understanding and appreciation of horses. Unquote We certainly seem to have highly successful punters right here in this part of the forum, but do they keep careful profit and loss records? I doubt it. If it can be proven, then he or she should be rightly included with the guys I mentioned above, and, one in particular, might even get a standing ovation at Hamilton Park some time later?
If you get a few quiets moments Swanny, check out a bloke called Zeljko Ranogajec. It's estimated that he stakes a billion per year on horse racing and according to TabCorps, accounts for 6% of their annual $10 billion revenue. He started with nothing.
All my bets are proofed this forum and P&L accounts are kept. Only problem, it's not real money. If anyone wants an accurate P&L account they are welcome to post in the VBS or I can send them my VBS system to use privately
I remember reading an article about Alex Bird in the mid 1980's and at that time he was quoted as saying that he loved betting on 2YO horses because he felt they held their form more consistently than any other age group. Mind you, I wonder what he would have made of Mark Johnston, whose 2YO horses seem to struggle to run up a sequence of wins. Regarding photo finishes, I read that Bird used to have a special spot he would adopt near the finishing line, at an elevated position, and by closing one eye he had an exact image of the finishing line in his head. It was said that he had 500 successful photo finish bets in a row. You would have thought that a strike rate like that would have seen bookmakers to tell him to GTF when approaching them for a bet on the outcome of a photo finish. Nowadays Bird's account would probably be closed after getting three winners.
That is a major problem today Grendel. Can't bank on a bookie accepting your bets. Is it less of a problem betting on the exchanges?
