Double landed successfully. Tsar won with the minimum of fuss and will be raised into three figures now on the handicap Ratings. That maiden he ran in last year has now yielded 15 wins from 10 different horses, so it was justified that a few of us felt it was a race worth looking to for the future. Dhahabi made a winning debut. He travelled well and threateningly but then seemed to falter and was green. I thought he'd blown it but he knuckled down, ran on, and claimed the leader. There was a panic as Dinoo finished strongly and almost caused a shock at 50/1 for Richard Hughes but Dhahabi just had enough left to prevail by a neck. Perhaps the runner up was a bit unlucky but whatever the fortuity of the win Dhahabi will have to make big improvement next time to become a player for the better 2YO races. Can't complain on the day.
Cheers Stick. She was still showing 9/2 on Oddschecker with Paddy Power but when I went onto their website they were only offering 3/1. Aidan O'Brien has said that Derby winner Serpentine is unlikely to join Santaigo in the St Leger and is probably going to go to the Grand Prix De Paris before possibly running in the Arc. He's generally 14/1 for the Arc but there is some 25/1 available. I doubt Gosden and Frankie will be wringing their hands in worry but given that Love clocked only a slightly faster time in the Oaks than Serpentine in the Derby, does that really justify her being 3/1 and him 25/1?
Well done. I narrowed the race down to two and picked the wrong one. No idea why Havlin decided to go across to the stands’ side on King Of Comedy as the extra distance travelled guaranteed him last place.
I did get my leg over her. Sadly it was only when it came loose when I was out on the balcony at the posh hotel I was staying in. The leg missed her head but hit her Pina Colada before bouncing into the swimming pool. I sat down quickly before she shouted up "Is that your leg", I lied "No love, 4th floor I think" That leg was waterlogged and chlorinated when I recovered it under darkness at 3am. Smelled faintly of pineapple as well.
Were we watching different races? Sovereign did not go off “too hard” at all. When they came to the three furlong pole, it was obvious who was going to win. Buick was starting to scrub at Sovereign to try and find some more, Moore had started to push at Japan while Dettori was swinging along on the bridle with Enable. Once Dettori went to the front on Enable, Moore dropped his hands on Japan and made no effort to run the one-paced Sovereign out of second – surely a case of failing to ride your mount to obtain the best placing. Delighted that Enable brought up the hat-trick but I have no doubt that some will crab her achievement because every trainer in Britain refused to put up any horse to oppose her. Credit to Ballydoyle for supplying the rest of the field but they must now be going back to the drawing board with Arc plans as I cannot see any way that Japan can win it and Frankie will surely not get it wrong this year; and can only be beaten by a better three year old (a role for which only Love seems to be a candidate right now). If Enable does not have a turn of foot, I definitely must have been watching a different race. In fact, I must have been watching a different horse these last four years. With regard to the commentator’s hyperbole, Enable probably is a horse in a million. Of the world horse population, there appear to be very few that have been able to beat her in the last four years.
I was worried that Enable might have had enough after Sandown but she looked more like herself today, must have needed the run more than normal as Gosden and Dettori suspected. Im not buying that Ghayaith was some kind of unbeatable machine on the day, just look at what Enable did to Japan today while she struggled to beat him a neck at Sandown, Regal Reality was beaten only 5.5L and he was beaten 7.5L by Aspetar today in a G2. Ghayyaith is low 120s horse at best and ill be looking to take him on the rest of the season, hes done an Apples Jade winning early season non events from the front against half fit horses but I strongly suspect he will be found out in the main events. Japan did not go a yard today but surely that puts an end to the 122 nonsense, hes always been a 117-118 horse and giving 3 pounds to Enable was an impossible task for him. In the end Enable was left was the biggest penalty kick of all time, Obrien even supplied the perfect pacemaker for her and it was an absolute dream for Dettori. A complete non event of a race and sad to see in a King George that could have been so much more. Love had no excuses for not turning up after missing the Irish Oaks, Serpentine and English King would have been worthy and intriguing runners, and the one who might have had the best chance of all Magical, looking to finally get revenge on Enable at a track where she has a great record, but instead she will pick up the Tattersalls Gold Cup - one of the least prestigious Group 1s on the calendar and usually an early season Prince of Wales prep for Obrien.
The 2 horses sent all the way up to York by the Hannons seemed a wasted journey today and now there's one here at Doncaster. AFRO BLUE, again seems a long way to go and has S Levey on board so hoping of a go showing here. Managed 18/1 earlier and there is some support for it now.
Entitled to your opinion QuarterMoon and I am entitled to mine. That last part of you post is just a pathetic pedantic attempt to undermine my comment. If I could press you further on that, did Enable really go from a "Horse in a million" to a "Horse in ten million" in the space of 50 yards? If not then we have to stand with the viewpoint that the commentator was firing the hype gun. I disagree with your feelings on the rest of it. I think the Racing Post were generous in giving Japan 111 for his run today, in fact it has to be bollocks. How can they award 118 to Sovereign and give just 7lbs less to a horse who has finished 11 lengths behind off level weights? At 1.5 lbs per length for a 12F race, an 11 length deficit equates to 16 and a half pounds. A 7 lbs difference would be consistent with a 4.5 length beating and I believe the Racing Post assessor has meant to give Japan 101. Has Sovereign run to 118? If he has it equals his best ever RPR or winning the Irish Derby As for crabbing Enable, I am just trying to be honest about today's race as I saw it. I missed Enable in her first Arc but I had her ante-post at 5/1 the following season and I was on again at 7/2 last season when she couldn't quite do it. I have her at 6/1 and 5/1 for this year's race, so why would I want to crab the form? Enable is remarkably consistent and I am more than willing to punt her when I feel the price is worthwhile. Sadly it doesn't happen very often and that is undoubtedly because she is exceptional in terms of grit and determination, allied to longevity now as well. However a run through her form shows several races where she was skinny because of a lack of worthwhile opposition. There are occasions where Enable has not won as comprehensively as one would expect and some of that can be put down to any horse just not being on their game every time they run in a long career but there has to be analysis of her ideal conditions and for me they are at 12F with juice in the ground. She did win the Epsom Oaks by a long way but Rhododendron didn't stay and although the ground was supposed to be good on the day, the race was run in a thunderstorm and the sods were flying. Watching it back again now, a neutral observer can see that Enable comes under pressure first and Rhododendron is going better, probably just nudging ahead briefly but just as the jockey wants his filly to go and win it his filly starts to feel it and the petrol gauge runs out. Enable doesn't quicken away, she simply keeps up the gallop to the line and Rhododendron's stride shortens and she weakens back. People can take what they want out of watching a race and i have watched many of them over the years. I look for the actual value of the form as I see it and don't let emotion or sentimentality come into it. I don't think those factors are useful in helping to find a decent bet with some value. It's better not to read posts if you feel you might be offended by them. Your rant is misguided and illogical. How can anyone be crabbing a horse they want to win a race later in the year?
Couple of questions Grendel In your assessment of form, do you ever take account of the time recorded? Had Love, English King and Serpentine turned up, do you think they would have beaten Enable today? Three questions Why do you reckon they didn't turn up?
Ron that is the problem with today, it has left questions like the second one. I don’t see how anyone can actually work out what her performance was today, given Japan was woeful. If I may on the latter, the issue here is this seasons fixture list. No three year olds due to the late Derby, so many races squashed into the last month and the race cut up because of it.
Which race are you referring to Nass? The Oaks, where she was faster than the Derby winner, with no sex allowance, or the KG where she won as she liked and hardly had a race?
English King was slaughtered by Serpentine in the Derby. He probably should have been second but it would be impossible to claim he would have won it. Love beat nothing in the Oaks, the second filly was last next time and the 4th was only 4th in a French Listed race where she finished a length and a half in front of a Gosden filly who had an official rating of 84 but somehow was favourite for the race at 13/8, after scrambling home off 80 in a handicap the time before. Serpentine took a huge leap forward in the Derby but the placed horses suggest it was dubious. If Kameko completely failed to stay the trip, it takes a bit of explaining how he managed to obtain 4th place and be best of the ones considered to have a chance judging by the betting. I don't think any of the three would have beaten Enable today and I don't think any of them will beat her in the future if she stays sound. The reasoning is that simply that I don't think they are good enough. I saw some opinion that Serpentine and/or Love should have run today but I suspect the trainer wants to keep them to weaker races before potentially throwing them into the deep end in the Arc. I don't upgrade a rating because the time is fast. It is useful to know that a race hasn't been falsely run but I don't think you could argue that a horse could had more authority than the ultimate winning margin just because the time is fast. If we did that for the winner we would also have to do so for those in behind because of the fact that their form came in a fast race and is worth a higher rating because of it. In general with times I find that these fast times and track records can be spurious. Novellist clocked an amazing 2.24.60 when he won the race but despite that the race only ever yielded one horse from those in behind who actually managed to win a race in 29 starts (Cirrus Des Aigles won two from next six runs) Novellist went on to win in Germany but never raced again. There were zero winners from 22 starts in that race. Novellist's record time was approached by Poets Word but there are others who were faster than Enable today. That includes the St Leger winner Conduit, Dule Of Marmalade, Azamour, Harbinger and Pentire, who all won as 4YO's. Times are of secondary importance for me but not disregarded totally.
Yes I agree times can be spurious. Usually when there are track records many of the times on the same day/track are also fast so mean very little. But for me there are circumstances when the times are very indicative of an exceptional performance (eg relatively fast times combined with having a ton in hand, fast times on soft ground by a horse who is better suited by fast ground etc). I personally find times fascinating as long as they can be considered relevant having taken account of all the contributing factors
The King George, and whilst she won easily, you can't say for certain how good the run was because of the opposition and the lack of a startling time on the clock. It is no wonder she ran fast closing sectionals given the slow pace of the race, so using that as a sign of her brilliance is a misnomer too. I am in no way crabbing Enable, she is a wonderful horse who I hope wins the Arc again, however what I am pointing out is that people going over the top with that King George run are probably missing the point about collateral form and the probability of Japan running massively below form. Timeform by the look of it has also gone overboard with their rating giving the second a career high rating for being beaten so easily. In terms of times, this might be of interest - 2020 versus 2018 times King George 2020 - 2:28.92s 2018 - 2:25.84s International Stakes 2020 - 1m 25.77s 2018 - 1m 26.91s Now given that the International is a very competitive handicap with a maximum field size, it probably is a fair indicator of how the going was for the race. In comparison the handicap in 2020 was run in 1.14 seconds faster time than in 2018. In comparison, the King George was run in a time 3.08 seconds slower in 2020 than in 2018, showing that the race this season wasn't run at a great speed and that using the times to back up the impressiveness of her victory is a strange route to take. Further to this, if you look at these two sets of sectional timings - both are from the same day, same course and same trip - (i've put faster time in bold) Furlong Horse 1 Horse 2 6f to 5f 12.99 12.38 5f to 4f 12.91 12.19 4f to 3f 12.98 12.36 3f to 2f 12.14 12.4 2f to 1f 12.05 12.63 1f to finish 12.58 12.98 You would see that Horse 1 was faster than Horse 2 in the finishing furlongs, showing an impressive turn of foot. Which of these horses is the best?
