Crickey, I usually moan when a UK card has got 8 races on it but I see that the old Longchamp Sunday one has got 9 heats! Why on earth does any fixture warrant, or indeed want, 9 races?!? Meanwhile, I see that the Racing Post are reporting that Danedream will indeed be supplemented for the Arc. It’s going to be interesting to see the market reaction to this…
Danedream will certainly add another interesting element to the race. On the betting front, after his alarming drift yesterday it appears that So You Think may be in the process of challenging Sarafina for favouritism. He's right into 5.4 now with Sarafina solid at 5s. What a change a day makes. Suddenly my 6.2 is looking slightly more reasonable! I genuinely thought the game was up when he was out to 12s. The only question i find myself asking is why didn't i take the prices?! Oh the benefits of hindsight. In addition Nathaniel has shortened back up to 18s. His price seems to wildly fluctuate at the moment so clearly there is a large amount of uncertainty surrounding his participation.
Ive never been so confused about a race in my life. It seemed like only a month or so ago it was shaping up to be the hottest Arc since 97,now i haven't got a clue what to make of it. I was pretty confident about Sarafina after Pour moi retired,now ive thought about more reasons why she cant win than ways she can win. Id pretty much written SYT off as not quite being up to the required standard,now something tells me hes gonna come up with the goods. Incredibly confusing but equally fascinating.
Ardent, no worries at all. It has been fascinating to follow- its the first time I've really kept tabs on an ante-post market and it can be interesting to see the directions in which the market goes. I apologise if I have posted an awful lot the last couple of days, I just hope it has provided a good preview and a bit of excitement to Sundays race. It does look wide open, but I'll stick my neck on the line and say that Snow Fairy backers must be out of their mind. If she wins the Arc then with all due respect, we must have a poor crop of 3 Y 0 colts. I love Snow Fairy as a horse but she is held on all sorts of form lines. She can't beat Midday so surely there must be multiple horses who can beat her in this field. The money has poured and poured for So You Think and I expect him to be favourite tomorrow on the exchanges. He is currently joint fav at this moment. He might well trade at less than 5s. Danedream has remained pretty much the same in the market- there does not seem much confidence behind that one at the moment, despite the confirmation. 26s is the current price. Casamento is expected to drop out. Ballydoyle are expected to lose at least 3 of theirs, whilst Meandre & Nathaniel have yet to have been decided on in terms of being supplemented. I think we might have a comparitively smaller field than the last few years, barring any surprise supplements.
I don’t know if its already been raised but the draw stats re the Arc are Amazing with a capital ‘A’. Namely, that 16 of the last 18 winners emerged from a single figure draw and it is now 25 years since any horse drawn 16 or higher won! The moral of the above is that the old draw is certainly worth monitoring when it’s made, people.
Wednesdays update: We are currently down to 14 remaining entrants, after Aiden O'Brien removed Giant Step and Wonder Of Wonders, whilst Godolphin scratched Casamento. John Gosden removed Arctic Cosmos. Tomorrow will see the decisions made regarding Nathaniel and Meandre (and indeed possibly Reliable Man, who had been a market negative this week after Fabre expressed concerns about quick ground, saying if its quick he won't be risked) O'Brien currently remains 4-handed, with So You Think, St Nicholas Abbey, Treasure Beach and Seville. There is more depth to betting on Masked Marvel in the last 24 hours, and indeed is as low as 60s on Betfair. I did hear whispers late last night that he could be supplemented, claims which are strengthened by the deferral of Arctic Cosmos this afternoon. Keep your eye on that one As it stands, prices on the Ballydoyle runners suggest that SYT (5.1), SNA (39), and Treasure Beach (40) are all expected to run, whilst Seville's price of 150s suggests either he won't run or is perhaps there as a pace angle.
Masked Marvel just been taken at 60s, now standing at 44s. Wouldn't it be great if he were to attempt the LEger/Arc double. However, Nathaniel throughly deserves his chance and I hope he runs.
Sir Barney, there are nine races on the Arc day card because there is also the Qatar Arabian World Cup, a Group 1 race for Pure Arabians, which was added a couple of years ago when the Qatar sponsorship deal began. They also moved the Group 1 Prix De La Forêt from Saturday’s card to Sunday and added an Arabian race to Saturday’s card. The eight races on Saturday consist of four Group 2s, two handicaps, a claiming race and the Group 1 Arabian Trophy. It certainly is the calm before the storm. Top Class, the only reason that I can see for taking out the pacemakers (Giant Step and Regent Street) and leaving in Seville as a potential pacemaker is that, on form, Seville could actually win the race from the front if he is good enough. Cyc, So You Think can go off favourite but not in his own right. In France, horses under the same ownership are coupled in the betting, which means that So You Think, St Nicholas Abbey and Treasure Beach will be coupled (at least according to the ownerships that are listed on France Galop). Most of France will have bet on the home horses and if the Aga Khan runs both Sarafina and Shareta they will be coupled and could still go off as favourites.
Nathaniel hits 120s. Masked Marvel hits 30s. Looks like the Leger winner may well be heading to Longchamp.
Nathaniel out of the Arc , where will I put my money now . On the other hand a Frankel , Deacon Blues and Nathaniel treble at Ascot is looking appealing
Hope you're going to give us the winner Ron - I haven't got a scooby with the Arabians. Or are they "no bet" races?
Who better to know the merits of a horse's abilities than a jockey? Of course the person who gets to sit in the saddle knows best, but some other riders also have the knack of spotting a decent horse. I suppose Kieren Fallon knows his beans. His Arc reflections make for an eye opening read. As far as he's concerned, the one to beat is So You Think. "Let's not beat around the bush, if you asked every jockey riding in the race, who they would want to ride, I'll bet 90 percent would say So You Think and I am one of them." He's quoted as saying. Another quote. : "For those of you who like to look at long shots there is one in the betting that seems to have gone under the radar of most experts and I reckon he would be a terrific ride around Longchamp - that is St Nicholas Abbey." He added. "St Nicholas Abbey stays as well as anything in the field and, assuming plenty of use is made of him, he will make odds of 40/1 look rather silly." Anyone got any ideas as to who will ride So You Think? Seamie Herrernan is unbeaten on the horse, so he looks the best bet, but what chance the trainer pulling a real surprise by sticking his son on the animal?
I actually agree with Kieren. I think SYT is the one to beat, and that SNA is one that has been written off on the back of two sub-par performances in unsuitable races. However i think the second part of your post explains the first part to a large extent. I would think that Kieren is eyeing up the ride on SYT himself. As a SYT backer i'd be delighted if he took the ride because he certainly knows his way round Longchamp. Not sure whether the Coolmore boys will put him up though. I'd be surprised if Joseph was given the leg up too. I reckon he might be back on board SNA again. Who does everybody else think will ride SYT?
I'm thinking this could be a really truly run race this year, particularly if Masked Marvel goes as well. I can imagine we could get a fast run race and a fast time and if he goes then Masked Marvel will carry my money - with William Buick hopefully making plenty of use of him and kicking on into the false straight. Let's see them try and reel him in
I'd be concerned that his Leger performance will have left his mark. There's no way he had an easy race by smashing the track record into a headwind. If he's still bouncing then absolutely agree that he's a very lively outsider but i reckon it could be a step too far. To my mind they'd be better off targeting the BC Turf as was (and still is) the plan. I think by trying to take in both races they might end up sacrificing their chance in both. Then again, i am well aware that Mr Gosden has forgotten far more than i will ever know about racing!!
