I’d frankly be surprised if we saw a substantial number of fans in the PL next year. Although the government have taken some pretty unpredictable steps at times, so you never know!
Eventually things will have to return to normal or the human damage will be greater from an economic point of view than from the disease itself. Even in the absence of a vaccine, Covid will probably end up being manageable and treatable. So in conclusion, I expect every government to say eventually, ‘Oh, Sod it. Let’s get on with it.’
Things will eventually get back to normal-adjacent. I'm just not sure that a top priority for that should be propping up the finances of professional sports teams, especially when gate revenue is pocket change at this point. With a one-third-full stadium, our total gate would be something like 6m. That really worth it?
Sport may seem ephemeral in the scheme of things, but it is as much an employer and generator of taxes as other ostensibly more important occupations. And remember that unlike many businesses, football pays its taxes and doesn’t pretend to operate on a strangely low UK turnover. And the loss of sport has an effect on the general health and mental well being of the population.
Sport is happening, though. The question is whether having fans in seats is a necessary component thereof for the time being. We have already seen that football matches can be a major vector, and while some precautions can certainly be taken, if the goal is atmosphere, those precautions will largely eliminate it anyway. We're seeing what happens if you just shrug and let the disease sweep through in the south/western US. Several large states have now run out of hospital capacity and are getting worse. 'Rona doesn't care if we're bored with it.
Think of the small businesses locally to a football stadium too and the revenue they're missing out on at the moment. It isn't all just about the Premier league clubs it has an impact on local communities too.
Most of the businesses suffering are restaurants, pubs etc that have proven to be utterly unsafe. The solution isn't to expose people to keep those businesses operating at partial capacity (where most cannot survive) it's government supports.
There is also the consideration that getting back to normal in as many ways as possible will encourage people to go out and do other things, particularly those who are confining themselves to their own home. That's not just about getting people back to pubs, restaurants, shopping stores etc, but some people are even scared to leave their home to get a pint of milk from the local shop. It must be having a big impact on people's mental health. Obviously it has to be safe to let people back into stadiums, but as more things open up, more confidence will return to the public, and if cases spike, we can temporarily close things up again. Important to be cautious but not petrified. EDIT - PM has just announced that there will be a pilot test of allowing sporting crowds back. 'Subject to the success of pilots, fans can start returning by October.'
So, is this linked to the travel sector having no work for them? I honestly don't think they will be much good a playing football, and if it is to boost the crowds, well im sure many of them prefer rugby to football.
What about the rest of the pyramid? No fans for most of next season would likely mean losing 50+ clubs.
It means that a serious look needs to be taken at how to provide support for those clubs. It's one thing if there is little to no community spread by then. But if, as most world health organizations expect, COVID comes back with a vengeance in the autumn, do we really want to put the football pyramid before the public interest? Is "well, either a lot of people had to die, or we had to provide loan guarantees to Accrington" that difficult a choice?
However, there’s a limit to government support (which is actually our money after all). The chancellor said that he couldn’t save all jobs and businesses right from the beginning. In the end, people have to take some responsibility for themselves and there has to be a balance of risks.
There does have to be a balance of risk. The question is: does that balance of risk involve tens of thousands of people in stadia for recreational activities? Or do some activities pose an outsized risk that could have downstream effects on more essential activities: ie., if things like crowds at sporting events, or food & drink locales result in an explosion of cases and ends in a lockdown to prevent the health system from being overwhelmed, have you actually balanced risk?
I went in a pub recently...I had booked a table and it was half empty. Would I go into a crowded pub at the moment...NO...it’s called taking responsibility for yourselves and others.
But there's the problem: most businesses cannot survive at 50% capacity or below. It's just government pawning off an impossible situation on business-owners and the public because it lacks an actual plan. And the longer this goes on, the less likely those businesses are to actually survive.
No government can protect businesses against all the vicissitudes of life. An attempt was made to tide people over and hopefully save a lot of jobs. Some businesses will go to the wall...I’m not being heartless as there are individuals behind every story...but there will also be start ups and changes in direction for pre-existing businesses. It’s easy to think that you would do things differently but these are unprecedented times. Not being in charge of the UK at the moment must seem a doddle to the opposition.
A lot of people are too scared at the moment, my local on Wednesday usually has at least 30 locals in at 17:00......this week? Only 2. Personally myself not been to a pub yet and not planning anytime soon.......alcohol and common sense don’t mix with social distancing to be abided by.
But government does set the conditions by which those businesses abide. And if the government's directives result in more death and/or more business closures than similarly-situated countries experience, then they have erred. Catastrophically. It's still possible that, by the time October rolls around, the UK will be a place to safely have fans in stands. But only if people are incredibly vigilant for the next two months. Because if you have enough dry timber and enough embers in autumn, it's a recipe for conflagrations. And there won't be any public will for closures at that point.
