anybody who thinks Love would have won from being held up here has lost the ****ing plot, the horses back in the pack hadnt a hope in hell from this position, the 3 leaders, all 3 rank outsiders, all had enough energy left to run strong almost the full straight, which made it utterly impossible for those back in the pack to make ground on horses who were not stopping, English King looks the blindingly obvious one to take from the race please log in to view this image
The pace WAS there. The jockeys chose not to follow it. If they had kept closer to the front runner it would have given them a better chance. A race with no pace is one where nothing at all wants to go on and horses who need a lead are at a disadvantage. If some horses go forward and you decide not to track them then that is a failure on the pilot's part and not a case where nothing wanted to set the pace. Serpentine was going faster than average in front but not ridiculously so or else he would not have lasted home. Simon Rowlands stated that both Love and Serpentine ran inefficient races but the former did so by going too slow early and the latter by going a bit too fast than ideal early. Love effectively had too much class and would have won however she had run it and I think Serpentine benefited from some jockeys keeping an eye on the wrong horses and misjudging how fast Serpentine was actually going. It also helped that he faced a modest field. You can hardly say Serpentine won a Derby off a slow pace because he was not going slow, he was going faster than par. The others should have been sitting closer to the leaders. They could have had cover behind those horses but they chose to seek cover behind horses going too slowly to keep tabs. John Francombe once said "Jockey's eh? If you took their brains out, they would still weigh exactly the same" What is your take on Serpentine 124p with Timeform then Benoit?
Don't really take much notice of Timeforms ratings so dont have anything to reference it against. I know they rated Frankel significantly higher than the official rating but not sure if they are always a bit higher like rpr or that was just a special case. On paper he's beaten a couple 110+ horses a decent distance but what's more likely, the front 3 all improved massively and just happened to be 1 2 3 all the way, or the run of the race was dodgy and the front 3 are all massively flattered by being in the right place at the right time? My gut feeling is that he is not a 120+ horse, probably a 116-118 horse who had an absolute dream set up and loved the track. I would be extremely suspicious of a 120+ rating for him despite what it says on paper, I don't trust the race at all.
As regards Serpentine's rating, I don't trust any ratings. I go by Phil Bull's comment that the rating doesn't tell you how good a horse; it tells you how bad it isn't. Timeform's ratings take account of all sorts of factors, one being the clock. So it is unlikely the rating is over-cooked but there is only one way we will find out. This horse has improved significantly since the cheek pieces were added winning a maiden by 9l without any fuss, then wins the Derby in a good time unchallenged. We don't know how good this horse is so I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt until I see him again
I have Cayenne Pepper in my horses to follow and I thought she ran a good race behind Magical on her reappearance. That was an odd move taking on older fillies first time out for a 3YO and I always felt Cayenne Pepper would need the 12F to be seen at her best. Her Fillies Mile run suggested that she needs further and that makes it even more odd that Jessica Harrington sent her in against one of the very best older fillies Magical over a 10F trip. Ennistymon was beaten out of sight in the Epsom Oaks and only finished second because Frankly Darling didn't go a yard at the track. Peaceful won't stay 12F in my opinion and faces a quick turnaround from the French Oaks, where she failed to confirm Irish Guineas form with Fancy Blue. I make her a strong lay over even further. I pumped into Cayenne Pepper at 3/1, narrowly missing 7/2 but all things being equal she should have a huge chance her for Jessica Harrington. I see Snow being backed but she would be the worst filly to win an Irish Oaks for many a year as far as I am concerned. Cayenne Pepper readily appeals as a better bet to me than Ennistymon at very similar odds and I may yet top up at 2/1. Fancy Blue won't run according to some reports and she would be a slight question on stamina anyway, although I was hopeful that she might get away with it at Epsom. I'll be disappointed if Cayenne Pepper does not win but Ron should note that it won't be "Bitterly disappointed" "Like the Murphys I don't do bitter" Hopefully the headline will read "Red Hot Pepper"
Hope you haven't backed him Benoit. Charlie Appleby says it is very unlikely he will run in the Sussex, as he feels the horse deserves a mid season break. The trainer felt the Moulin or the Foret (sticking to 7F) later in the season were the better options for the colt. Pinatubo won easily last time and the jockey felt he was impressive but Lope Y Fernandez in second and Malotru in third were 40/1 and 68/1 shots and it seems too much of a coincidence to me that both colts produced career best efforts on 117 and 110 with the Racing Post ratings. Lope Y Fernandez was no match for Siskin in the Irish Guineas and if that form is poor then how can we rate Pinatubo so strongly as 120 for the Prix Jean Prat? The O'Brien colt seemed as if he didn't get home at the Curragh and was then dropped to 6F for the Commonwealth Cup. I felt he had a chance there and backed him but he stank the place out with an effort that couldn't be explained solely by the change in trip. It was somewhat annoying to see him rated 117 in his next race, as that was the mark given to Commonwealth Cup winner Golden Horde for landing the Royal Ascot race. The official Irish Handicapper has raised Lope Y Fernandez 6 lbs to 115 now and I just can't have that at all. We already saw how the same assessor raised Arizona to 116 for chasing home Pinatubo in the Dewhurst and I called bollocks on that figure at the time. Ryan Moore gave a glowing report on Arizona coming into this season and he was well enough backed for the Guineas in the aftermath. My views on the figures produced by assessors seem to be controversial to some but they are my thoughts and in Arizona's case he has run to 104, 75, 102 and 104 on Racing Post ratings since being awarded the 116 official rating. The official handicapper has now dropped Arizona to 113 and then down again to 110 after his Jean Prat run. Other than the 117 for his Dewhurst run, Arizona's best RPR was the 108 for beating Threat in the Coventry last year and I feel the official handicapper has jumped the gun again here with Lope Y Fernandez on 115. The Sussex Stakes had been looking a potential highlight of the season but with Palace Pier out of it and Pinatubo likely to follow suit, it leaves it looking less inspiring. I still want to be against Siskin at the odds and Kameko may be an option at 5/1. I am not sure the Guineas winner needs dropped a half mile so soon after his Derby run and he wasn't a blatant non-stayer at Epsom, managing to beat home plenty of those with assured stamina. Al Suhail was impressive last time after a totally dismal effort as my longshot in the Guineas. He was rated only 70 on RPR for the Classic but produced a 116 effort when regaining the winning thread in a 6 length romp in Listed company. That figure would have seen him 4th in the 2000 Guineas and he clearly was amiss that day. Charlie Appleby said a couple of years ago that Dubawi offspring sometimes get "Lost" earlier in the season but then come on strong as the summer comes in and perhaps this is one of those cases. The trainer explained that he has trained more of Dubawi's stock than anyone else in the world and was in a position to make this observation. A little more improvement from Al Suhail would see him in the ballpark for the Sussex and he is 16/1. In comparison, Earthlight seems poor value despite an easy comeback win recently. The press seemed excited by his success but he beat horses who would probably struggle to get into the Lincoln Handicap with their low 90's ratings. The runner up had been beaten more than 6 lengths further by Jean Prat 4th Wooded on his previous start. I would be struggling to award Earthlight more than 105 for his recent win.
I did back him as 5/1 was a ridiculous price, luckily managed to cash out for full stake in time. Strange decision from Appleby not to run in it. please log in to view this image The narrative was Pinatubo got his career back on track, but in truth it was never off track, he ran two fine races and was fully entitled to win a weaker race, he had quite a rough trip and still won easily but the St James Palace 2nd is still his best run this season. 7f obviously suits Lope Y Fernandez well and had the Irish Guineas been 7f he wouldnt have been beaten far by Siskin, you can see Pinatubo going away from him at the finish and he obviously doesnt want a yard further than 7f, the Maurice De Gheest over 6.5f might be perfect for him and this form would give him a very good chance of winning that.
Murphy posted his reflections on Twitter of one of the most stunning Epsom Classics in history. He said: "The bottom line is I feel Kameko doesn't stay a mile and a half and we will definitely be coming back in distance." Seems pretty blatant to me.
Al Suhail didnt run till June, not exactly early season in a normal year, and his 2nd run was only a month later, must have found him pretty quickly if he was "lost". Maybe Advertise was also lost when he ran down the field in the Guineas before winning at Ascot last season. Horses bouncing back from running no race is a common occurrence, Lope Y Fernardez another recent example, not exclusive to progeny of Dubawi.
Have not really looked at it but I will be sticking with Snow, she has won me a few quid this season and she is progressive and stays well, looks a Group 1 in name only and wont take much winning.
Oh yeah, jockeys are famously infallible and never get it wrong. English King must have been **** if he couldn't get past a blatant non-stayer in Kameko. The trainer and/or jockey are always going to default to the obvious excuse when a Classic winner is beaten when stepped up in trip. Sceptics going in, and those who backed him will almost always also use the same excuse without even stopping to consider the evidence. It comes as automatically as breathing for them and I can't say I have ever found jockeys to be the best judges. The Derby itself showed as much and you said yourself that they is-judged it but now you are using the word of a jockey to claim something is crystal clear. Inconsistent logic there.
There is no way you can compare Al Suhail with Advertise. The scenarios are blindingly obviously completely different. Advertise dropped 2 Furlongs in trip next time in the Commonwealth Cup and ran at a different racecourse, Ascot compared to Newmarket. Al Suhail ran at Newmarket again after the Guineas, and again he ran at a mile distance. That is a completely different situation when a horse is doing exactly the same thing in the same location the next time it runs because more of the variables have been eliminated. A scientist once said to me "You cannot make logical comparisons whilst comparing apples to dildos" He, or maybe I, have paraphrased that old chestnut but the thinking is very sound. Very few horses are actually consistent. I don't have a percentage for it but I remember a consistently profitable tipster on another website who believed that most horses run in an out of form to a fair degree. Sometimes it depends if they get the right ground/trip/course that suits, other times it depends if it is the time of year they seem to do best and for handicappers it may depend where their current mark sits. Sometimes though, it is inexplicable why they don't fire. I think if Charlie Appleby saw fit to make the comment about Dubawi then he must have seen a pattern that meant he felt it worth pointing out. If you want to rubbish that with your own remarks then crack on.
I have not said much about the jockeys, 99 times out of 100 the 1 in front is a pacemaker that falls in a hole. As I said on the question of whether Love would have won the Derby, there is no way Ryan Moore would have just out of the blue made an early move out of the pack and Murphy has said as much. Love would have been left in a hopeless position like everything else that was held up. "Emmet was kind of getting a freebie in front but none of us were going to make a mid-race manoeuvre having got into the rhythm of a mile-and-a-half Classic race." It was just a freakish false race, multiple variables have made it almost impossible to gain any ground in the straight, no jockey on a fancied runner is going to start chasing what is perceived to be a hare a mile out so I have not been too critical of them.
Ennistymon looks a bad favourite to me at 2/1 for the Irish Oaks. She went up 3 lbs for her Epsom run to an official mark of 107 and that looks very low for an Irish Oaks favourite. Cayenne Pepper is top rated on 111 and again that is poor for a Group 1 Classic field. I would say it is a Group 3 contest at best and I prefer Snow at 9/2 than Ennistymon at 2/1. Snow's run behind One Voice has not worked out very well since but she seemed to stay well when upped to the 12F next time out. She is progressing, which is more than can be said for stablemate and one-time Epsom Oaks favourite Salsa, whose form reads 666289 and is stuck on a rating of 88. Snow would be my main worry but I felt Cayenne Pepper had the most potential to come forward from the Fillies Mile, where she finished a length and a quarter behind Love, looking slightly short of pace at the trip. Nobody can try to take that formline literally but it wasn't a bad effort given that the jockey felt she wasn't herself that day. Shane Foley recently said that he was worried about Cayenne Pepper in the Spring, saying that she didn't feel right and didn't look right either. He feels the filly has thrived and definitely improved since her run behind Magical. The jockey reported that he was surprised how well Cayenne Pepper ran last time out because he was worried whether she was quite ready to give her best and his words were that "She has turned inside out in the last two weeks" Of course Foley had been similarly bullish regarding Albigna before her flop in the Irish Guineas but that effort was blamed on the ground being too fast. They had already said that the fast ground at Santa Anita and the sharp track led to her defeat there, so how many times does that have to happen with a horse before the obvious solution of not running on that type of ground is considered? There seemed to be some digs at me questioning trainers placing of horses but it seems obvious to me that everyone in the world makes mistakes and we should point it out where we feel that has happened with trainers and jockeys. I backed Jean-Claude Rouget's Tawkeel for the Prix Diane and was confident she was the one to beat. The trainer sent the lower rated stablemate instead and she was only 4th in a blanket finish mediocre looking renewal. The two collateral form horses who ran in the Prix Diane and had earlier finished behind Tawkeel in the Prix Saint Alary, Magic Attitude and Solsticia were beaten 3 lengths and 3 and 3/4 lengths in the Prix Diane. In the Prix Saint Alary Tawkeel beat the same two fillies 5 lengths and 5 and a 1/4 lengths. Those form lines have Tawkeel winning the Prix Diane comfortably and her 112 rating for the Saint Alary win was higher than Fancy Blue's 110 from the Racing Post for the Prix Diane. Both the form lines and ratings suggest Rouget ran the wrong filly and it was not exactly a situation the trainer could not have foreseen because Tawkeel was well ahead of Raabihah on the official ratings coming into the Diane reckoning. As the wartime song went:- "Jean-Claude has only dropped one ball, his head was up his aerosol"
What would have been surprising would be if he'd said ' the bottom line is that I have no idea if Kameko stays because I rode him like a plonker'.
You will never see Kameko at 12f again and the fact that they are going right back to 1m tells you everything you need to know. They knew he wasn't a 12f horse but they had to run.
