Saturday's Meetings Ascot Turf 8 Races 12:40-4:40p.m. Newmarket Turf 8 Races 12:30-4:25p.m. Naas Turf 8 Races 2:00-5:45p.m. Ripon(E) Turf 9 Races 4:30-8:40p.m. Kempton(E) A/W 8 Races 4:50-8:25p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Good Luck
Coventry - Creative Force 15/2 Not sure why this seems to be friendless in the market, the race he won on debut is working out well, the 7th and 8th beaten over 10L have won and finished a neck 2nd in their next starts, the runner up Imperial Force ran 3rd in the Norfolk today looking like the 5f was too sharp for him, and the 3rd and 4th horses have been considered good enough to also run in the Coventry for major stables. The rail was the place to be on the day and Creative Force had a perfect trip but he was very professional and won going away, very strong at the finish suggesting there was plenty left in the tank, and I think those who ran behind him there will need to have come on a lot to reverse the form. I can see why Qaader has been fancied with Hamdan and Crowley running a mock and after winning impressively at Newbury, but while the 3rd has since won a 3 runner affair, the race had nowhere near the depth of the Newmarket event. The favourite Admiral Nelson is priced up purely on the fact its Obrien, we have no idea what it beat on debut, with an 80/1 shot of Eddie Hartys beaten just over 2L in 4th, and Obriens seemed to be fitter than most at the time into the bargain. Their well regarded Lipazzaner was well behind Imperial Force in the Norfolk today and while he obviously has a chance for these connections, hes a shocking price at 5/2, ought to be closer to 5/1. Creative Force dam won multiple times on heavy and his half sister Persuasion won the QEII on soft, and being by Dubawi he should have no ground concerns. Appleby not having a great week so far but it looks like his 2 big guns run tomorrow in this one and Pinatubo, and im struggling to see any real negative, id argue that Creative Force should be favourite for this race and I think he could be one of the leading 2yos this season, but we will see what happens.
Queen Mary - Campanelle 15/2 I dug out Kimari as Wesley Wards best chance last season and I think this is his best this year, he said in an interview that Golden Pal was his best 2yo and the horse fully vindicated that quote with a huge run in the Norfolk, just bumped into a very smart 2yo in the The Lir Jet and got caught late. I was so impressed by Campanelle debut win at Gulfstream, she was close 2nd choice to another Ward runner but she was sharp away and settled beautifully with the fav on her outside, the 2 of them seemed to be doing it easily but the fractions were lightning quick, 22 and 44 flat for the half mile, and they had the field strung out like 3 mile chasers which is quite unusual in a 5f race on fast ground. The favourite was well put in his place and Campanelle won by 3.5L, it was another 13L back to the 3rd. There was 3 other 5f races on the card for older horses and she had the fastest time by .8s I like the fact that she has that early speed but also relaxes with it, and given she has a UK pedigree she should hopefully be fine on the ground, I have not looked through every runner in this race but ill be very surprised if anything has the speed or is professional enough to go with her, I expect her to lead all the way.
That is good as I backed those two earlier today. Got told by the Henderson stable to back Creative Force, hopefully does not get chinned on the line like todays Golden Pal. Pintubo to bounce back as well?
Dark Lion for me in the Coventry. I was impressed with him in defeat at Newmarket where he raced against the pace bias and didn’t get a clear passage into the race. He should get a better race set up here and I think he’s got a lot of improvement on the bare form figures. I thought he was overpriced and one to be with tomorrow.
Pinatubo must be priced up on last season’s form, because I can’t see any obvious reason why he should reverse Guineas placings with Witchita in the St James’ Palace Stakes. The latter is around 11/4 on Bf.
Todays bets at Ascot: 12:40 - Hyperfocus 40/1 Ew 1:15 - Campanelle 7/1 Win 1:50 - Talbot 12/1 Ew 2:25 - Run Wild 9/2 Win 4:10 - Gulliver 14/1 & Jacks Point 16/1 both Ew
I’m going with the draw today, going report from the course suggests that it’s dried back out, so I’m hoping for a stands rail bias again. so Blue Mist - talented horse and sprinting might just unlock a win or two. Sands Of Time - it’s been a long held belief of a few pundits that all weather form transfers well to Ascot. However I just really liked her debut run and she is so overpriced Dark Lion - already mentioned Quadrilateral - if she settles then she’s surely got a massive chance. Given more pace here that looks likely. Pinatubo - similar time Quadrilateral, but hopefully Buick can ride a more patient race and hopefully Pinatubo doesn’t overrace early. Price is too short for both him and Quadrilateral to be going mad about No idea of the Diamond Jubilee. Wokingham - again playing draw with Gulliver and Highland Dress. Gulliver has caught the eye multiple times in last couple of seasons and needs to win something of substance soon!! then Grand Visir in the bumper. My best bet of the day. Small stakes stuff. Not giving much of the weeks profits back!!!
Lots to avoid on the last day of Royal Ascot behind closed doors! Two Wokinghams and a couple of juvenile cavalry charges with Ballydoyle short-priced favourites. The St James’s Palace Stakes does feature the rematch of Wichita and Pinatubo after they filled the places at HQ. Royal Dornoch and Arizona are re-opposing after finishing down the field in the 2000 Guineas. Frankie is not on Wichita this time but the unbeaten Palace Pier, who will need to find considerable improvement if Pinatubo returns to his best. I hope Charlie Appleby’s charge does redeem his lofty reputation as the sport needs a superstar three year old. In the Coronation, I had not been expecting to see Quadrilateral lining up as (like most) I expected to see her next in the Oaks. American raider Sharing won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies over a mile, giving her a similar profile to the favourite but she has never run on easy ground. The other unknown quantity is Alpine Star, a well-related Group 2 winning juvenile who could have improved over the winter enough to challenge. Maiden So Wonderful ran a creditable third in the Irish 1000 but her best efforts have been on quick ground. Having finished ahead of Quadrilateral at Newmarket, I am sticking with CLOAK OF SPIRITS to do so again if she is okay with the easier conditions. I am surprised to see Sceptical put in as the clear favourite for the Diamond Jubilee as it really beat trees in a Listed race at Naas last time and has never contested a Group race. There are several here that have been expensive to follow including Dream Of Dreams and Sands Of Mali. The old course specialist The Tin Man returns and whilst he has won on seasonal debut before, he is not getting any younger. Stewards’ Cup winner Khaadem has run poorly on both his visits to this course and whilst Hello Youmzain was third in the Commonwealth Cup last year his two Group wins of 2019 were at Haydock. So I am looking to the very bottom of the card for ONE MASTER, second over course and distance last time on Champions’ Day with six of these rivals behind after winning the Prix de la Forêt.
12.40 Hyperfocus ew (borrowed from Smokey) 3.35 One Master win 4.10 Arecibo & Hey Jonesy ew 3pm? On a Saturday? Football coupon? Don’t mind if I do. It’s good to be back. Have a good weekend fellas
Trainer reckons he has come on a lot since the 2000 and is expecting a much better run, believe of that what you will. Wichita has every right to of come on as well.
Morning all. 2 bets for me today: Ascot 1.50pm Admiral Nelson 9/4 win. Looks a big unit and trainer has a great record in the race. Ascot 4.10pm Hey Jonesy 40/1 each way 6 places. Strange that he is being turned out quickly after racing on Tuesday but with first time blinkers applied. He finished around 3 lengths behind the winner in this race last year but it was on quicker ground and he is now 7lbs lower. Nothing is screaming to me about his form but he has ability and I think they targeted this race last year so a big run at a big price could well be on the cards. Good luck all.
Stick, You reckon Cloak Of Spirits finishes ahead of Quadrilateral Again, you went for COS in the 1000 I think?
It wasnt me mate but I do remember someone putting it up. I was on LOVE, probably my last winner in Bustino's comp. LOVE ran them ragged in the guineas and those behind looked pretty ordinary. If Quadrilateral settles better then she would reverse the form but its one of the most difficult things with headstrong racehorses to get them to settle if its not in their nature. I would take Cloak Of Spirits to confirm the form but I reckon ALPINE STAR will beat them both.
Maybe the best day of the meeting in terms of interest. The Coventry is a bizarre looking affair. Admiral Nelson is favourite but only one tipster goes for him, compared to TEN selections for Qadder in the Racing Post selections box. Perhaps surprisingly Lauded, from the Dascombe yard is second most popular with two picks. Creative Force is not nominated by any of the Racing Post tipsters and despite having an attractive profile (plus Benoit's selection) he seems crazy weak out to 12/1 and that has to be a concern. You would expect improvement from this son of Dubawi but there seems to be some traction behind the thinking that Dark Lion was favourite for the race Creative Force won and that Varian's horse did not handle the Dip at Newmarket that day when finishing 4th. Looking back Dark Lion was awkward in the closing stages and you would expect improvement from him, however, he was beaten more than three lengths and with 15 runners in the field he may have problems if wandering around and coming from behind as he tried to do last time. Strong enough in the betting at about 9/1 his chance has not been missed and obviously it makes Creative Force look big at 12/1 by comparison. I played on Admiral Nelson at 8/1 when betting first opened. O'Brien had said that the Coventry was a possibility so long as the horse came out of his first race satisfactorily. It's a quick turnaround for him though and he goes up in trip and faces slower ground now as well. His debut was all you could ask of an O'Brien trained horse and he always had his more fancied stablemate covered. The 6th furlong should be no issue today and if I was to play one for the Guineas now it would probably be him (33/1) but he is already the best of his dam's progeny to date and she is by Exceed And Excel and there looks a lack of stamina to combine with Kingman as his sire. He looks too short now and I feel Qadder will go off favourite and Admiral Nelson should be at least 4/1. Lauded has a couple of fans in the tipsters box. He put his field to the sword by four and a half lengths on debut and the ground was good to soft, as it is today. The runner up was only 13th in the Windsor Castle and beaten 8 lengths behind Tactical though and that was a Listed race, so this Group 2 looks stronger than that and leaves Lauded a bit to do when thinking that he might not have beaten much last time with the others to run since finishing unplaced. Qadder looked fit and ready to rock first time out at Newbury. He travelled well near the fore and he picked up markedly when asked. He put the race to bed readily but he wandered right across the track whilst putting distance between himself and the field. Other than that wayward moment he looked most visually impressive of all the contenders in today's race. He should be favourite in my view but he's short enough at 3/1, having been 5/1 earlier. I also have memories of so many promising Johnston horses who fail to produce the goods after excellent first efforts, so I couldn't play at the odds but he did have that turn of pace that sticks in the mind. The ATR preview says that his form has already been boosted but that horse was 5/4 Fav in a Goodwood maiden, so I think some perspective is needed when talking about a horse about to run in a Group 2. Conclusion:- Qadder should be favourite and he clocked the best Topspeed figure. Simon Rowlands has further stated that the closing splits in his race were excellent (final furlong 11.5 sec) so he looks a solid contender. The wandering and Johnston factor put me off at the odds though, Creative Force struck me as a sprinter with an all the way performance where the choke seemed pretty much out all the way. He's not short of pace but you wonder if he can quicken or whether he may just be there to be shot at by the closers. Admiral Nelson at 8/1 was a play for me but the price is wrong now. He needs to come forward and only has had 8 days to find it. Qadder is facing the same quick turnaround but is perhaps more forward and precocious. For all that Admiral Nelson was taking on debut he faces much tougher opponents today. Frankie rides Existent for Gosden and this colt was third on debut, The winner of that race, Bright Devil, was disappointing in the Chesham next time when 6th to Battleground, never looking likely to be involved. As potential value I went with Saeiqa from the Gosden stable. It seems to have been overlooked that the son of Shalaa was ahead of Dark Lion when they ran behind Creative Force. Third that day, Saeiqa finished off his race well, after looking green and slightly wayward as Dark Lion had been. I felt he looked a physically imposing enough colt who would perhaps improve quite a bit. The ATR preview says that he has a desperate task trying to reverse form with Creative Force but surely that is just as much an ask for Dark Lion today as well? I thought Saeiqa was overpriced at 28/1 and decided he was work a poke at 25/1 each way five places. Admiral Nelson 8/1 ante post Saeiqa 25/1 EW 1,2,3,4,5 places
Disgusting drift on creative force, has absolutely no chance and somebody knows it, robbed before the race starts. Managed to cash out 1 of my bets for full stake but 2 remain. I have savers on Qaader at 11/2 and Dark Lion at 9/1 which would cover my losing bets on Creative Force where either to win.
Afternoon everyone, Couldn't resist Skybets enhanced double this morning of Quadrilateral and Pinutubo at 10/1. In the 4.10 have had an ew bet on Highland Dress at 9/1. And in the 1.50 have gone with two in Creative force and lauded. Scarlet Bear at 150/1 in the 1.15
